On Monday night, two small snapshots of Canadian public opinion sent a powerful message to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.With two more by-election losses in Winnipeg and Montreal, following their recent loss in Toronto, the Liberals appear to be on the brink of utter disintegration. Meanwhile, the rise of the Bloc Quebecois as a dominant federal party in Quebec clearly demonstrates that cracks in Confederation are widening. The Bloc’s victory in LaSalle-Émard-Verdun will likely embolden the party and its leader, Yves-François Blanchet — a man who, according to Postmedia columnist Don Braid, makes federal Environment Minister Stephen Guilbeault look like "an environmental pussycat."NDP leader Jagmeet Singh will be relieved — and also hopeful — about his party’s win in Winnipeg.On the one hand, both the Bloc and the NDP stand to benefit from avoiding an election and propping up the Liberals until next year. They can use their votes as leverage to get as many concessions as they can from the federal government.On the other hand, while both the NDP and the Bloc would almost certainly find themselves banished to the opposition benches in an early election, with the Liberals so weak right now, they might both be thinking that in such an event they would stand a very good chance of forming the Official Opposition.As a result, one or both of them may be willing to trade off some short-term policy gains in the next year, in exchange for a much more prominent and extended role in the next Parliament, from which they could promote their long-term agenda.At the moment, the former argument seems to be winning out.On Wednesday, the Conservatives announced that they will be tabling a non-confidence motion in the House of Commons.NDP leader Jagmeet Singh has not been clear on the intentions of his party, but Blanchet has indicated that his Bloc Quebecois will not support the motion, giving the Liberals enough support to remain in power, at least for now.But it remains to be seen whether this position remains tenable. Parties that prop up an unpopular government have a habit of becoming unpopular themselves — as the NDP discovered.In the end, whatever happens, national unity is at risk of fracturing further. Voters across the country, frustrated by the constant encroachment of poorly-conceived and poorly-executed federal programs, eventually band together against the governing party. Voters oust the “guilty” party, replacing it with one that respects provincial autonomy. Then the new federal leadership restores powers to the provinces. National unity is repaired - until the momentum shifts again.Let's call it the "federalism pendulum."Canada is not a unitary state with one central government, it is a union of distinct provinces and territories with constitutionally-protected jurisdiction over policy areas which are essential elements to the foundation of our country.Federalism — the concept of shared power between the federal government and provincial governments — is fundamental to the understanding of this Confederation.That division of powers is enshrined in the Constitution, and commonly upheld by the Supreme Court as a virtue of Canadian confederation.When the federal government centralizes power, it undermines the very foundations of national unity and severely damages the ability of our provinces to look after the interests of their own people. Federalism is the only check-and-balance system present in Canadian society that protects us from a single government system where a single party, elected by a single populous region, can dominate the political affairs of the entire nation. Jurisdictional conflicts over federalism are far from new; they are a recurring theme in our nation’s political history. Each new struggle represents a potential turning point in national affairs, running the risk of breaking the pendulum.Project Confederation has long been at the forefront of the discussion when it comes to the complex interplay that results from the dynamics of federalism when it comes to national unity and popular opinion.We are fully cognizant that the changing political tides across the nation present new opportunities to advance our message and secure meaningful changes to Canada's constitutional structure — changes that protect the unique aspirations of the provinces and ensure the federal government remains within its proper jurisdiction, once and for all.
