As threats of a trade war loom, can Alberta's diplomacy safeguard its future?President Donald Trump has threatened a 25% across-the-board tariff, citing concerns about trade imbalances and border security. This shouldn’t come as a shock, given his previous administration’s approach to Canada-U.S. relations.Trump's first term was dominated by his push to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement, and he is clearly planning to do the same again.Protectionist Canadian federal policies, such as supply management, have been his target in the past. These measures act as barriers to true free trade, undermining the open market principles that trade agreements are meant to uphold.The United States is Canada's largest trading partner, with deeply integrated cross-border industries. Energy, automotive, agriculture, and manufacturing are all heavily reliant on seamless trade. A blanket tariff could have devastating economic consequences for all Canadians, driving up costs for consumers and businesses on both sides of the border.Alberta, as the largest exporter of energy products to the United States, is particularly vulnerable.According to a 2024 report by ATB Financial, Alberta exported $134 billion in oil and gas to America, representing over 80% of Alberta's total exported goods.Laurentian Canadian leaders, such as federal Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly, are threatening retaliatory actions:"All options are on the table when it comes to defending Canadian interests, and that includes our energy exports to the United States. We must be prepared for all scenarios."Alberta Premier Danielle Smith warned that retaliatory measures could spark a national unity crisis:“We just won’t stand for that... And I don’t think Ontario and Quebec should stand for that. They shouldn’t be standing by and listening while a federal minister talks about cutting off their energy supply.""Here's the thing I find irritating about Eastern politicians making that argument. The reason I find it irritating is because we could have had Energy East, which would have expanded our ability to support our friends in Eastern Canada and also been an export market off the East Coast. We could have had Northern Gateway, which would have expanded and supported export markets in a more substantial way off the West Coast."She also stated that the fact that now these politicians are using our resources as leverage in a trade war is "very, very irritating."Smith has taken a markedly different approach to the trade dispute than Ottawa, focusing on diplomacy to safeguard Alberta's interests. Last weekend, Smith met with Trump at Mar-a-Lago in Florida with the same message she's been repeating to every U.S. elected official she's come across — North American energy security.On Monday, she will be attending the inauguration of President Donald Trump, and we can safely assume her message won't change.Alberta is the backbone of Canada's natural resources exports in a heavily-integrated cross-border energy grid — and a 25% tariff would significantly disrupt its ability to produce these resources. This, in turn, would put thousands of jobs and billions of dollars in revenue at risk.Paralysis or a poorly considered response from Ottawa will deepen divisions in confederation.A more proactive and independent approach to international trade means that the federal government is not speaking on behalf of Albertans - especially with the anti-Alberta brigade in Ottawa running the show.Alberta's reliable and ethically-produced energy plays a vital role in North American energy security, and curtailing Alberta's exports would hurt both Canadian and American consumers while emboldening energy producers like Russia and OPEC.With Ottawa caught in reactive posturing, Alberta must step up to fill the void in protecting our economic interests. Alberta’s economic future and sovereignty are at stake.As Canada faces unprecedented challenges, it’s clear that Alberta cannot rely on Ottawa to defend its interests.Premier Danielle Smith’s diplomatic efforts represent a bold step toward safeguarding Alberta’s prosperity and ensuring its voice is heard on the international stage.We cannot allow our international interests to be represented by a hostile and dysfunctional government in Ottawa dominated by eastern interests.
