The mainstream media is once again obsessed with the idea that Alberta Premier Danielle Smith is being held hostage by the most radical elements of the independence movement.As always, they are looking in the wrong direction.Those that seek independence aren’t the ones that can topple the premier immediately.The real threat to Danielle Smith is the quiet, disciplined old guard of institutionalists inside her government: the Kenney-loyalist federalists who are currently lurking in the shadows, quietly buoyed by the re-emergence of their fearless former leader.The knives are sharp in the Alberta legislature. The institutionalists are the ones who benefit the most from each David Parker-esque bozo eruption that takes place in the independence camp.It’s hard to estimate, in simple passing, the real impact of such a serious privacy breach on the movement itself. There is no way to tell how that investigation, and any pending legal action, will play out. The grassroots leadership was already facing an uphill battle, with undecided voters being the deciding factor as the campaign was supposed to kick off.It could be a slow, steady drip of revelations. It could be a high-profile arrest at the worst possible moment. Each incident represents a head wind in convincing undecided voters.Meanwhile, the media, the NDP, and Liberal MP’s have been running victory laps following Wednesday’s decision by Trudeau-appointed Justice Shaina Leonard striking down the approval of a petition seeking a referendum on Alberta independence..This should be the break the NDP needs to make a serious push at the polls — except for the staggering incompetence of Naheed Nenshi.The Leader of the Official Opposition is currently making a massive strategic error by treating every Albertan frustrated with Ottawa as a mouth-breathing independence seeker.It’s a lazy caricature that is costing them dearly in the polls, and it’s one that has been adopted by Kenney, the former “Fair Deal” advocate who virtually abandoned his anti-Ottawa stance while turning on his own political base while serving as premier. Most Albertans, according to the polls, don’t want to leave Canada, but they are rightfully furious at a federal government that treats the West like a resource colony. By dismissing legitimate grievances as fringe extremism, Kenney and the NDP have effectively abandoned any voters who want a “fair deal,” leaving them with nowhere to go but back to Smith.This is why the UCP is currently enjoying a big lead over Nenshi, and takes the NDP off the table as a legitimate political threat.Which brings us back to internal mutiny. Kenney has been clear that he thinks the government should back away from the referendum entirely, and has been personally dragged into the Centurion Project as a potential litigant, which will inevitably increase his visibility..Parker has effectively handed a political firearm to the front-and-centre voice of the remain movement in the exact moment he completes his reinvention as a federalist, fighting to save the nation at all costs with his new Liberal allies.Meanwhile, Kenney’s mark on the Alberta government remains in the caucus, cabinet and staffers that he brought into the movement.Many of those who served both Kenney and Smith have — and will — maintain loyalty to the current administration.However, there likely remain a few MLAs, cabinet ministers or bureaucrats who hold a certain fondness for their time in the Kenney administration.The referendum, therefore, becomes a double-edged sword.I have no doubt there will be a vote; whether Albertans vote on Thomas Lukaszuk’s “stay-in-Canada” question or on a government referendum is irrelevant at the present moment.What is relevant is that if the referendum fails — or if the campaign becomes a circus — it gives the Kenney-loyalists exactly the ammunition they need.They will attack her for being incompetent. They will argue that her "sovereignty" obsession has distracted from the basic duties of government..The irony of the Kenney-loyalist crusade against the independence movement is that they are currently watching their own brainchild take on a life of its own.In March 2021, then-premier Kenney introduced the Citizen Initiative Act — calling it one of the most important democratic tools in Alberta’s history, designed specifically to empower ordinary people to force the consideration of big issues if those issues are “being ignored by your elected officials.”Back then, Kenney sold the act as a safety valve for democracy.Five years later, the ordinary people Kenney wanted to empower are the very ones he is now calling “overcaffeineated” radicals.He looks right at home sharing a stage with Liberal operatives like Corey Hogan, performing a passionate defense of a country he did nothing to fix while he was in power.I’m willing to bet that if you polled the legislature, a large chunk of the UCP MLA’s and government staff would agree with the positions of the new and “improved” Jason Kenney — public defender of Canada at all costs, grievances be damned.Danielle Smith should beware.If she falls in the next six months, it won’t be Mitch Sylvestre or Jeff Rath holding the proverbial knife, as much as they will likely gladly claim full responsibility.She will be gone because the Kenney-loyalists in her ranks decided that the "United" in United Conservative Party was no longer worth the price of her leadership.
