The French Foreign Minister, Jean-Noël Barrot, the former German Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel, Finland’s President Alexander Stubb, and other European figures have speculated about the possibility of Canada joining the European Union (EU). Prime Minister Mark Carney has dismissed the notion of Canada joining the EU but has advocated for closer, stronger ties with the bloc. If he were inclined toward EU membership, it would be imprudent for him to announce it at this time. It would be far better to continue aligning Canadian laws and regulations with those of the EU before making any formal announcement. Joining the EU is a slow, multi-year process that often takes a decade or more.An example of this closer alignment is the net-zero emissions legislation in Canada and the EU. Although some details differ, both feature multi-year plans with specific goals for milestone years, culminating in net-zero emissions by 2050 in both jurisdictions. Another example is the provisions in the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA). Under CETA, the Regulatory Cooperation Forum (RCF) promotes alignment, information sharing, and mutual recognition of standards (RCF—Chapter 21.6). Related provisions also appear in the World Trade Organization Agreement on Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT—Chapter 4). Although these mechanisms are voluntary, the review and potential regulatory changes occur through negotiations, which can introduce political considerations into the discussions.Regarding such negotiations, the EU-Mercosur Partnership Agreement (EMPA) serves as a cautionary example. France, one of the EU’s most influential member states, has strongly opposed the agreement for years. French leaders argue that it offers limited overall benefits while imposing significant costs on the French agricultural sector. Nevertheless, Brussels proceeded with the deal: the agreement was signed in January 2026, despite France’s continued resistance..Canada’s closer alignment with — or adoption of — the EU’s regulations and laws would significantly harm Alberta’s economy. Here is why. A major report titled The Future of European Competitiveness, prepared by former ECB President Mario Draghi and published by the European Commission in September 2024, acknowledges that European economic growth has slowed markedly since the beginning of the twenty-first century. Despite various strategies attempted over the years, this sluggish performance has persisted. The only factor that lessened the negative impact of the slowdown was access to the Asian markets. The report also highlights the critical security provided by the US.Accordingly, the Draghi Report already noted in September 2024 that the international trade paradigm — i.e., hyper-globalization — was rapidly fading. This observation came four months before President Trump’s second term began in January 2025. In general, the report describes Europe’s fundamental values as prosperity, equity, freedom, peace, and democracy “in a sustainable environment” (which includes net-zero emissions). It identifies several key reasons for Europe’s economic decline and competitiveness gap, including missing out on the digital revolution and the development of new technology, a non-dynamic industrial structure, persistently high energy costs, over-regulation, and rising security threats. The report also highlights that, between 2008 and 2021, close to 30% of European startups (valued over $1 billion USD) relocated, with the vast majority moving to take advantage of the more favourable US business environment.Equity, in this context, means striving for a similar outcome for everyone rather than equal opportunities. Why, then, should someone dedicate 60 or more hours a week to developing a new product and bringing it to market if the economic rewards are largely eroded by high taxes? Instead of fostering innovation in digital industries, the EU has focused heavily on regulating them and imposing taxes on foreign companies that lead in innovation. For every successful technological breakthrough, there are typically multiple costly failures beforehand. This requires a sophisticated, risk-tolerant economic ecosystem capable of taking a long-term view on development and investment. Europe’s non-dynamic industrial structure stems from regulations, limitations, and entrenched business patterns that allow companies to remain comfortable repeating the same activities for decades with little pressure to change. High energy costs in Europe are largely a result of its ambitious environmental and climate policies. Germany provides a clear example. It advanced furthest in shifting to renewable energy sources such as solar and wind. This was backed up by natural gas from Russia. When the Nord Stream pipelines were sabotaged in 2022, Germany’s energy system failed to provide sufficiently for both industrial and household demand, exposing the vulnerabilities of its strategy. The Draghi Report foresees that Europe may eventually have to trade off some of its core values against one another, as the EU may no longer be able to sustain all of them simultaneously. It seems doubtful that the EU will correct its course before it is too late. Too many people and institutions are economically benefiting from “managing the decline” rather than pursuing genuine reform. Is this the future we want for Alberta?.This raises important questions for Alberta. Although natural resource development falls under provincial jurisdiction, we have seen how the federal government has expanded its influence through its carbon tax, Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act, and control over exports by limiting foreign market access through various regulatory and policy measures. This top-down approach mirrors that of Brussels. Ottawa frequently aligns with or copies the EU-style policies while layering new taxes atop already high ones, driving people and businesses to relocate — as seen in California. The Canadian carbon tax and the proposed oil and gas emissions cap increase energy costs and encourage businesses to move elsewhere. If Canada continues drawing closer to the EU through trade agreements, adopting EU-style regulations, and pursuing an aggressive net-zero target within roughly 24 years, it risks replicating Europe’s pattern of falling economic growth — particularly in Alberta. Alberta’s major industries will be severely damaged by the ever-increasing carbon tax, the oil and gas emissions cap, and reduced agricultural output from restrictions on nitrogen-based fertilizers (as proposed in 2021 and currently practiced in parts of the EU). Alberta currently enjoys the best business climate in Canada. It leads the nation in entrepreneurship and has the highest GDP per capita among provinces. All of this could gradually erode as Canada aligns more closely with EU regulations. We are already seeing early signs of this trend. Canada has underperformed in economic growth relative to other G7 countries in recent years. Last year, our country experienced a net loss of approximately 120,000 citizens and permanent residents, with many departing for the US. Those leaving are often well-educated, ambitious, and potential entrepreneurs. Statistics Canada data also show that Canadian investors purchased $133.8 billion of foreign securities — mostly US — in 2025 alone. Alberta remains a bright spot. It led the country in net interprovincial migration for the third straight year in 2025, attracting tens of thousands of people from other provinces. However, when the light goes out in Alberta, people and capital will be moving across the southern border.Dr. A.W. Barber is the former Director of Asian Studies at the University of Calgary. He is internationally active and has wide-ranging interests.
