Prime Minister Mark Carney has a bad habit of evasion when asked direct questions about building pipelines. During his first Question Period in Parliament, his response on the issue was deliberately ambiguous. A June 3, 2025, video posted by The Canadian Press showed the prime minister discussing pipelines — but not committing to approving any. He merely suggested the possibility, quickly pivoted to a vague discussion of Canada’s long-term goal of becoming an energy superpower, and left it at that.This pattern has repeated itself on multiple occasions. Carney has offered no commitment to repeal legislation widely viewed as harmful to Alberta and resource-producing provinces — such as Bill C-69 (the Impact Assessment Act,) the federal emissions cap policy, the tanker ban on B.C.’s northern coast, or the carbon tax. True, with the newly passed Bill C-5 (the the Free Trade and Labour Mobility in Canada Act and the Building Canada Act,) his so-called nation-building team has the authority to override these laws on a case-by-case basis. But the laws remain on the books, available to be used — or misused — again in the future. If they’re no longer needed, why not repeal them?.Still, Carney will likely approve at least one pipeline. That's not because he’s had a change of heart or developed new sympathy for Alberta’s values. As he makes clear in his book, his values are grounded in the pursuit of net-zero emissions. He’ll approve a pipeline because not doing so would further inflame Alberta’s already growing independence movement — an issue that has recently gained national and international attention.Here, supporters of independence must ask themselves two important questions. First: what is the tipping point? Will one pipeline approval suffice? Or will it take two, or perhaps the repeal of the Trudeau-era environmental legislation that still hamstrings development? Second, and more troubling: can you trust Prime Minister Carney?.To illustrate the risks of placing faith in climate-first politicians, consider the case of Enbridge Line 5. Line 5 carries oil and gas from Alberta’s Athabasca oil sands through Wisconsin and Michigan, and into Ontario. Operational since 1950, it supplies more than half of Michigan’s natural gas needs — fueling both homes and industry. But after taking office, and despite the critical role it plays for Ontarians and Michiganders alike, U.S. President Joe Biden considered shutting it down. Amazingly, Biden was prepared to sacrifice it to please environmental activists who supported his campaign. Only after Canada invoked a 1977 treaty was Biden forced to abandon the plan. In this instance, politics — not people — came first..Carney could follow a similar playbook. He might approve the construction of a pipeline to a yet-to-be-built tidewater port. Support for Alberta independence cools, Ottawa breathes a sigh of relief. Then, when the pipeline is complete, Ottawa withholds the final permit — or imposes new export restrictions. The oil and LNG can’t move. In this way, Carney stays true to his green values while escaping the blame for a national crisis.It would be a colossal waste of money and effort — but, from Carney’s perspective, a small price to pay to avoid going down in history as the prime minister who presided over Canada’s breakup. When people are evasive and do not act in good faith, it is wise to remain suspicious — and to verify.Dr. A.W. Barber is the former Director of Asian Studies at the University of Calgary. He is internationally active and has wide-ranging interests.
