BARBER: Mark Carney failed on CUSMA — Canada could pay the price for decades

Pre-election, Mark Carney convinced many Canadians that his impressive credentials made him the best person to secure a good trade deal with President Trump. The media made much of his outstanding qualifications: an Oxford Ph.D., Governor of the Bank of Canada, and the Bank of England.However, there were some troubling indications, although these received little notice. The April 29, 2025, edition of The Telegraph warned, “Carney’s Dire Record at the Bank of England is a Warning to Canada.” A National Post article on March 21, 2025, expressed similar concerns. Mark Carney’s 2019 Jackson Hole speech, delivered while Governor of the Bank of England, was particularly worrying. One gets the impression that Mr. Carney was anti-American — an attitude common among certain members of the European elite. This view was recently confirmed in multiple interviews of Europeans attending the FIFA games in America. In YouTube videos, many of them claimed they had been lied to about how terrible America supposedly is. Placing someone with an anti-American sentiment in charge of negotiating a major trade deal with US President Trump was perhaps not the wisest choice.A year ago, the trade conversation was not about CUSMA but about the new tariffs placed on non-CUSMA goods, particularly steel, aluminum, and autos/auto parts. These sectors employed thousands of unionized workers who have traditionally voted Liberal. Trade negotiations were progressing but ultimately collapsed. Why did the Prime Minister not do more, even while publicly claiming he supported the workers? He was called out for this by Pierre Poilievre in an October 31, 2025, CBC interview.CUSMA included a mandatory review slated for 2026 as part of the original agreement. Yet in various interviews, Prime Minister Carney seemed uninterested. Even as the July 2026 deadline approached, he remarked in a Canadian Cattlemen interview, “I’m not looking for my pen.” This is national suicide. Before the tariffs, roughly 77% of Canadian trade was with the US. The overwhelming majority of Canadian goods cross the southern border and are covered under CUSMA. The US market simply cannot be replaced by any single country or any combination of markets..CUSMA has a ten-year drawdown period. The agreement will fully expire in 2036. Canada will not have to wait ten years to see the increasingly negative effects of the Prime Minister’s failure. Many foreign corporations established operations in Canada largely because of easy access to the US market. Stellantis, a Franco-Italian corporation, has already relocated facilities to the US. Toyota, GM, and Ford have also scaled back. The Canadian Steel Producers Association, aluminum industry groups, the Canadian Agri-Food Trade Alliance, and the Canadian Lumber Council have all emphasized that CUSMA is crucial. By contrast, the EU market is less compelling. Beginning in 1980, post-war EU growth slowed. The EU has never equalled the US in per-capita economic output. Since then, its relative output has declined.Foreign investment can be divided into two broad categories: investments that build something new in Canada and those that buy up existing Canadian companies. Foreign investors in new production will consider that CUSMA expires in 2036. It takes years to build a plant, and many will likely decide there is no business case to invest in Canada. Most foreign direct investment already goes to acquisitions rather than new facilities. The shift away from new development will accelerate. Canadian corporations will cut back as they prepare for the end of CUSMA. New incentives for Canadian startups will not be able to offset the loss of the US-Canada agreement. The CUSMA agreement must be preserved, or the Canada we know will be lost.The US will be able to find new sources for agricultural products — possibly India for wheat and Australia for beef. President Sheinbaum is actively negotiating a trade deal with President Trump that protects Mexico’s agri-export sector. There is a little sunshine for Canada and Alberta: various existing agreements regarding oil and gas, Canadian critical minerals, and electricity may help those sectors hold their own. However, the income from those sectors will not be sufficient to compensate for the losses in almost all other sectors. Overall, there will be a major downturn in the Canadian business environment. Canadians’ standard of living will decline significantly as job losses and reduced economic activity take hold. Already more than 100,000 Canadians left last year as the prospects of building a good life here deteriorated. That will soon become a tidal wave of Canadians moving to the US.Prime Minister Carney had one major responsibility: securing a trade deal with the US. He has failed at this so far. Furthermore, failing to maintain constructive relations with the US administration has contributed to the non-renewal of CUSMA. It appears that Mark Carney has steered the ship of Canada onto the rocks of his anti-Americanism. He will be fine personally, as he continues to help Brookfield Asset Management secure new contracts while his personal shareholdings grow in value. Canadians, however, will be deeply in debt for generations. With no way out from under this burden, decreased affluence, and a flatlined economy, many will flee south, taking their businesses.Dr. A.W. Barber is the former Director of Asian Studies at the University of Calgary. He is internationally active and has wide-ranging interests.

BARBER: Mark Carney failed on CUSMA — Canada could pay the price for decades

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