In October 2025, President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping met in Busan, South Korea. Both leaders were in Busan for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit. Although they reached a temporary agreement, considerable tension had built up before the meeting. President Trump had imposed very high tariffs on Chinese goods, while President Xi had placed export restrictions on some goods destined for the US as well as the EU. Most importantly, President Xi restricted rare earths; China believed it held a strong bargaining position because it dominates the rare earth market. Before travelling to South Korea for his meeting with President Xi, President Trump attended the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. There, he entered into agreements on rare earths and critical minerals with Malaysia, Thailand, and Cambodia. These deals meant that Xi’s ace card — China’s dominance in rare earths — slipped away, unbeknownst to him, before the two leaders met. Adding to his trade activities, President Trump entered into an agreement with Japan to cooperate through investments, exploration, and strengthening supply chains on rare earths security. This demonstrates once again that Trump is a top-level negotiator..WENZEL: Canada’s new culture war is being fought in Google reviews.Prime Minister Carney ran on a platform of being the right man to secure a beneficial deal for Canada with President Trump. So far, Prime Minister Carney has reached no agreement, and Carney’s involvement in Premier Ford’s TV ad — which upset Trump — is questionable. Regardless, the ad derailed ongoing trade discussions. Trump has proven that he is willing to make deals with people he dislikes, but that does not mean he has forgotten about why he dislikes them. It may well mean that the other party will not get the best deal from him. Furthermore, Prime Minister Carney’s taking so long to negotiate has allowed the background for a Canada-US deal to shift radically in America’s favour. In December of 2025, Utah’s Silicon Ridge Project confirmed high-grade deposits of rare earth elements and other critical minerals. The Montana Sheep Creek deposit, with its very high-grade rare earths, is planned to begin production in 2026. The California Mountain Pass Mine is already producing rare earths, and there are several sites in Georgia that are producing concentrates or in an early stage of development..Alaska’s Willow Project (expected to peak at 180,000 barrels/day) is under construction. The Ballymore and Leon/Castile projects in the Gulf of America (aka Gulf of Mexico) achieved initial production in 2025. The Permian Basin (Texas and New Mexico) has seen expansion. The US can now supplement this with oil from Venezuela, whose heavy crude composition is similar to that from Alberta’s oil sands. Finally, in 2025, the Raintree Prospects in Alaska confirmed to hold significant deposits of gold, silver, copper, lead, and zinc. In addition, new nuclear facilities are under construction or advancing in Tennessee, while nuclear projects in New York and New Jersey are in the planning and licencing stages. This renders Canadian-produced electricity imports into the states a less essential option.Prime Minister Carney has been pursuing trade deals with countries other than the US. In 2025, a new bilateral trade agreement with Indonesia was signed, lowering tariffs. However, in 2024, Canadian goods exports to Indonesia amounted to only $2.3 billion according to official government figures. Trade negotiations are ongoing with other countries, but no additional agreements have been finalized. According to COMTRADE, Canadian exports to the US in 2024 were about USD $419.75 billion. It would be difficult to replace that amount, and $2.3 billion is not going to have a significant impact. .ALBERS: Something big is beginning to grow in Alberta independence movement.While Carney was wasting time, the US has strengthened its position, and the overall situation — from Trump’s election until now — has significantly changed. To put it frankly, the US does not need oil, rare earths, or much else from Canada. This does not mean President Trump will not negotiate a trade deal with Canada. It does mean he can walk away at any time, leaving Prime Minister Carney with very little negotiating room. The existing CUSMA (USMCA) trade agreement is why Canadians have not felt the full impact of Trump’s tariffs. That agreement comes up for joint review this year, and the president has signaled he is willing to let it expire if it does not serve US interests. Alberta’s government needs to take Carney’s negligence and Trump’s strengthening hand seriously. Our oil will not be competitively priced if there is a carbon tax, expense for decarbonization, and other added costs even if new Canadian port facilities are built. We need a plan that Albertans support. Premier Smith seems on good terms with Trump, and she will have to use all her skills to make sure Alberta is not dragged down by the ineptness in Ottawa. Dr. A.W. Barber is the former Director of Asian Studies at the University of Calgary. He is internationally active and has wide-ranging interests.
