BARBER: Winner-Takes-All — how Ottawa’s power play could cripple Alberta

Two recent reports that seem unrelated actually signal a serious concern for Alberta. To frame the connections, the opinion article by Tammy Nemeth and Ron Wallace titled “Ottawa's two-faced energy play” is a crucial link. In this article, the authors highlight that various oil and gas activities in Newfoundland and Labrador are not required to have a decarbonization program, along with a supporting carbon tax. Those punitive costs are required for developments in Alberta. The question is: What is behind such an obvious double standard? I would speculate that it is not about the oil — it is about forcing Alberta to heel to Ottawa.Prime Minister Mark Carney has proven to be an excellent backroom dealer, securing yet another floor crossing — this time from the NDP. This comes as no surprise, given his previous roles at the Bank of Canada and Bank of England, plus his ample resources for political incentivizing (or bribing) MPs from other parties. Floor crossing remains a persistent issue in Canadian politics overall, but it’s especially grating in Alberta, where voters favour straightforward, stand-up elected officials. It is particularly repugnant amid Alberta’s fights for provincial autonomy against a Liberal-run federal government bent on centralization — for an MP to switch sides in this context. The Prime Minister needs just a couple more bought members to secure a majority. Of course, every minority government dreams of one, but most majorities are actually elected by voters. Prime Minister Carney will have the majority he bought. That does not bother him or the Liberals — power is the only game that matters in Ottawa, or so they believe. We now have a Prime Minister parachuted into the party’s leadership, anointed Prime Minister without riding support, and only later running for a seat. Soon, we may see a majority government forged through multiple backroom deals whose full details will likely never come to light. This is Canadian democracy in action..There have also been several musings that the Alberta Prosperity Project’s petition is falling short on the signatures needed to trigger a referendum. It is difficult to confirm this, as official numbers remain unreleased, and one should always be suspicious of sources — some clearly aim to manipulate perceptions. Suppose Alberta’s independence goes to a vote and is utterly defeated — not merely falling short at 45% yea support, but cratering at just 30%.A majority government gives the Prime Minister carte blanche — just like in Justin Trudeau’s heyday. If the independence vote fails, Canada’s breakup threat vanishes. The Prime Minister can then mistreat Alberta to force submission, since independence talk is mostly hot air. Investments will flee, tanking the economy. Once Ottawa has its screws into Alberta’s natural resources, it will certainly tighten them. Alberta’s can-do spirit, lifestyle, and future hang in the balance. This is an extremely high-stakes game forced on Alberta by Ottawa’s Liberal government. Albertans must grasp the true stakes: it’s winner-takes-all.Dr. A.W. Barber is the former Director of Asian Studies at the University of Calgary. He is internationally active and has wide-ranging interests.

BARBER: Winner-Takes-All — how Ottawa’s power play could cripple Alberta

Related Stories

REPORT: Ottawa-Alberta energy strategy may require billions in public subsidies

'WE STILL SHARE A VISION': Minister says Ottawa, Alberta aligned as MOU talks enter critical phase

MACLEOD: Carney’s CUSMA poker game — gambling with Alberta’s oil

WS: Is Alberta’s energy regulator helping small producers — or slowly choking them?