Budget 2025 didn’t just expose divisions in Parliament it exposed political vulnerability and timing. The vote was close enough to make everyone sit up but not close enough to topple the government. And that outcome suited almost every party leader in the room. The Liberals survived the night with a narrow 170–168 win, backed by the Greens and helped by the absence of four MPs who didn’t vote. It was enough to keep Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government alive heading into the holidays and enough to keep Canadians out of a Christmas election that no one wants.The most telling part of the vote wasn’t who voted for the budget but who chose not to. The NDP and Conservatives each had two MPs abstain, though for very different reasons. Those absences gave the Liberals the margin they needed and now both opposition parties are blaming each other..The NDP abstentions were the most politically deliberate. Gord Johns and Lori Idlout stayed off the voting list even though the party publicly opposed the budget.The reason is simple: the NDP cannot afford an election right now. The party is sitting on about $23 million in campaign debt. It doesn’t have a permanent leader and is still recovering from the backlash of propping up Liberal budgets under Jagmeet Singh.Don Davies, now serving as interim leader, is trying to steady the party, not send it back into another campaign before it can breathe.Polling shows how fragile the NDP’s position has become. The party isn’t close enough to the Liberals or Conservatives to influence the race meaningfully and its traditional base is drifting..According to new Angus Reid data, 61% of 2025 NDP voters now approve of Carney’s leadership. That number would have been unthinkable two years ago when the party saw itself as the progressive counterweight to the Liberals.Carney, meanwhile, is polling surprisingly well for a new prime minister dealing with a large deficit and controversial spending strategy. He sits at 52% approval.Even after being booed at the Grey Cup, he appears to be gaining public confidence, or at least benefiting from political calm fatigue.The Liberals now sit at 40% vote intention, holding a slight lead over the Conservatives at 38%..For Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives, the abstentions weren’t strategic in the same way. One of the absent MPs, Shannon Stubbs, is recovering from major surgery and is under strict medical instructions.Another, Matt Jeneroux, is stepping away from politics. But whether intentional or not, their absences helped avoid a political scenario the Conservatives are privately relieved to escape: a sudden winter election.Even though the Conservatives are polling competitively, an election call right now would carry serious risks for them. Canadians are clearly not in the mood for another trip to the polls.Nearly 69% say it’s too soon for another election and even 37% of Conservative voters agree. The country is less than a year removed from the last vote, inflation remains stubborn, and fatigue with national politics is obvious..If the Conservatives triggered an election now, especially during the Christmas season, they risk looking reckless instead of ready.There’s also a practical factor: campaigning over the holidays rarely benefits opposition parties. Voters are distracted. Rallies are harder to organize.Volunteers disappear. Advertising costs spike. A Christmas election could backfire by making the Conservatives appear impatient rather than principled.So while Poilievre continues to hammer the government publicly, the outcome of the budget vote quietly gives him time to rebuild caucus discipline after a floor crossing and a resignation, time to prepare for his leadership review in January, and time to consolidate support heading into the spring..For the Liberals, time is just as valuable. The budget includes $141 billion in new spending, deep restructuring of the public service, major cuts to temporary resident admissions, and a path to more than $1.35 trillion in federal debt by year-end.Whether Canadians accept those choices will depend on whether the government can show tangible improvement in affordability, housing, and economic confidence.For now, the government doesn’t need to win an election. It just needs to keep governing.Which brings everything back to the real story: Monday night wasn’t about policy victory or ideological alignment. It was about delay. The parties in Parliament didn’t deliver a ringing endorsement of Budget 2025 — they avoided a political moment most Canadians and most MPs aren’t ready for..The Liberals get breathing room. The NDP gets space to rebuild and clear debt. The Conservatives avoid being blamed for forcing voters back to the polls during the holidays.So yes, the budget passed. But what passed with it was a message: nobody wants to strike the match yet.But everyone knows the country is sitting in the early stages of the next election cycle.The sparks are already there..No one is lighting them.For now, the Liberals live to govern another day. The NDP gets to say they opposed the budget.The Conservatives get to say they fought it. And the public is left watching a Parliament that seems more focused on political timing than fiscal responsibility.It wasn’t support that carried Budget 2025 across the finish line. It was the simple fact that no one wanted to be the one to stop it.
