CRESCIA: Toronto’s mayoral race is Olivia Chow’s to lose — unless Brad Bradford starts fighting

Francis Crescia is a Toronto-based journalist specializing in politics, business, and cultural affairs.The clock is ticking toward Toronto’s mayoral election on October 26. Incumbent progressive mayor Olivia Chow continues to dominate the field, leveraging her distinct grandmotherly warmth and semi-coherent speaking style to hold onto a comfortable lead with 47% of voter support according to Forum Research. City Hall insider Brad Bradford sits at 32%, but his path to victory has become harder with the sudden entry of former Conservative Cabinet Minister Chris Alexander, who debuted at 11% and will split the right-leaning vote.Chow has been in politics for decades and is quite effective in holding onto power, keeping her left-wing base united, but remains a poor manager of the city’s finances. After winning the 2023 mayoral election with a mere 37% of the vote, due to a failure of conservative candidates to unite under one voice, she inherited a massive budget shortfall. Chow successfully leveraged her office to secure a historic "New Deal" with the provincial government, transferring the maintenance of the Gardiner Expressway and Don Valley Parkway, which freed up hundreds of millions in the city budget. Chow’s policies, however, have relied heavily on tax increases, putting through a 9.5% increase, the largest in over twenty-five years, along with a city building fund levy and a luxury home land transfer tax. The city's Auditor General has highlighted that the city has wasted millions of dollars on unused software licences, fraudulent electricity accounts, and has lost hundreds of millions due to a highly restrictive construction tendering system. This system relies on an outdated network of established trade unions that effectively excludes non-union contractors. Chow has shown little interest in taking on the city’s bloated $18.9 billion operating budget and turns a blind eye to wasteful spending..Councillor Bradford presents an intriguing candidate as he has positioned himself squarely in the political centre, rejecting both liberal and conservative labels. He campaigns on a platform of public safety, affordability, improving transportation, and fiscal prudence — he often clashes with the city’s left-leaning council. However, a significant portion of the electorate remains unfamiliar with him and tends to be inconsistent on issues. While possessing a strong presence and being far more articulate than Chow, his overly cautious strategy has caused his campaign to stall, leaving his support flat and failing to attract new voters. The sudden entrance of former conservative MP Chris Alexander into the race will complicate matters for Bradford. Alexander served in the Harper government, has valuable federal experience, and believes Toronto is “standing still” and is “slightly adrift” under the current leadership. Polling indicates that Alexander’s entry siphons right-of-centre and undecided votes that would otherwise go to Bradford, dropping Bradford’s numbers while leaving Mayor Olivia Chow's core support untouched. Chow remains a formidable opponent. She is a skilled campaigner, adept at avoiding fatal mistakes. She often avoids direct answers and uses soothing generalities to connect with her audience. In woke Toronto, her lack of policy specifics does not matter. Ask her about crime, and she speaks about investing in youth centres and calling Toronto “a caring city” — one may ask the victims of the continued increase in home invasions how caring the city has become. She is highly performative, always playing up the inclusivity card as if the city would become non-inclusive without her. Chow is demanding the province return waterfront lands slated for the Billy Bishop airport, while remaining fixated on non-existent grocery surveillance pricing. She also leans heavily on optics — such as spending $1 million to provide and install 1,000 free air conditioning units for low-income residents. Or giving WNBA Tempo owner billionaire Larry Tanenbaum a parking lot valued at over $10 million to rent for $1 a year for a decade to build a practice facility for the expansion women’s basketball team. The giveaway will cost the city about $500,000 in parking revenue and incur an additional $800,000 in operational costs. These actions clearly reveal that Chow prioritizes her populist, progressive agenda over the interests of taxpayers, showing a blatant disregard for their hard-earned money..If Bradford wants to become mayor, he needs to take off his gloves and aggressively challenge her failed policies. He should highlight her weaknesses on public safety, her tendency to spend without accountability, despite huge tax increases and increased spending on social services; the city’s food bank visits have reached historic highs, and traffic congestion is one of the worst in North America, where driving 10 kilometres now takes over 26 minutes. On public safety, Chow belongs to a class of leftist politicians who advocate for lenient sentencing. As a result, repeat offenders roam the streets, emboldened by a system that fails to hold them accountable. It is time for Bradford to move away from the political center and shift his policies to the right, targeting his message to the silent majority. With voter turnout at only 42%, many residents feel disillusioned with city politics and choose not to vote. Bradford cannot win a popularity contest against Mayor Chow and needs to stop running a campaign focused on being liked that fails to draw a sharp contrast. To win, he must stop attempting to match Chow’s likability and start exposing her policy failures.Francis Crescia is a Toronto-based journalist specializing in politics, business, and cultural affairs.

CRESCIA: Toronto’s mayoral race is Olivia Chow’s to lose — unless Brad Bradford starts fighting

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