2022 saw the fall of Jason Kenney, and with it his government's policies of repeated lockdowns and mandates — and it seems, his bark-more-than bite policy toward Ottawa..The year closes with Alberta's first genuinely populist-conservative government since the second term of Ralph Klein (1997-2001,) and Canada's first-ever openly libertarian premier. .In her thus-far short time in office, Premier Danielle Smith has killed the gas tax, announced Alberta will not enforce the latest federal gun confiscation legislation, fired Deena Hinshaw and the entire board of Alberta Health Services and passed the Alberta Sovereignty Act. It's a good start and as big a break from Kenney in some ways as was Kenney from Rachel Notley a few years ago. .But 2022 was just the start. The year 2023 will be the main event. Albertans will go to the polls on May 29 and decide if they want to continue on the new course set by Smith, or return Notley to power to pick up where she left off in 2015..It's a tall order for Smith. She's taken over a United Conservative Party that for more than two years has badly trailed the NDP in both polls and fundraising. She has already consolidated the wayward conservative-sovereigntist vote in the Wildrose Independence Party from its high of 14% earlier in 2022 to almost nil in most polls now. But she will need to hold them together with the broader UCP coalition as she tries to close the gap with more fickle voters in Calgary and small urban centres..Unhelpful to her in stitching that coalition back together is the raw feeling left by Kenney's interventions against Smith during and after the leadership vote. Some voters must be asking themselves if Smith is up to the job if a longtime Conservative like Kenney clearly does not think so. .Into this mix we add an invigorated NDP. Nearly four years have passed since voters made that party Alberta's first ever one-term government. Polls indicate there's a not unreasonable chance Albertans could make the UCP Alberta's second one-term government. .Time heals many wounds, and it seems many voters forgave the NDP its chaotic four years in government. If nothing else, the UCP cannot claim to be any less chaotic after the debacle of the last three years. And many voters may ask themselves if things were all that different under the NDP. .It's true the economy is humming compared to Notley's term in government, and some of that can be chalked up to changes in policy like cutting business taxes, but high resource prices deserve a very big share of the credit. .But much is still the same. Personal income taxes are just as high as they were when Jim Prentice and Rachel Notley hiked them in 2015, and even a little higher since they were de-indexed for inflation by Kenney in 2019. .Revamping the NDP's social-engineering K-12 curriculum has stalled in the face of opposition from the teacher's unions. Healthcare is shambolic..And zero progress has been made in Kenney's promised "fightback" strategy against Ottawa. Albertans voted to scrap equalization in a referendum, and the government didn't lift a finger. Huge oilsands projects were killed by Trudeau without a by-your-leave. .Perhaps the Sovereignty Act and resisting enforcement of gun confiscation policies will move the needle, but it's too early to say. .It's understandable some voters just don't see all that big a risk in voting NDP after the last three years. .But the stakes are higher than that, or at least they are now..The UCP struck a much more ambitious path for itself in 2023. The differences between the UCP and NDP are now much wider than personality cults and a few relatively minor policy differences at the margins. .The biggest of these differences now clearly falls along their different views of Alberta's place in the federation..The UCP under Smith declared war on Ottawa's meddling and confiscatory policy in Alberta. The Sovereignty Act is the most talked-about arrow in her quiver, but she seems intent on Alberta building its own police force and tax collection, key ingredients in building greater independence from Ottawa. Smith promised fighting with Ottawa will now go beyond angry letters and furrowed brows..Notley strikes much the same pose she did as premier from 2015 to 2019. She says she will work cooperatively with the federal government, but always put Alberta's interests first. You might be cynical about her success on the former, and guffaw at the latter. And you'd probably be right. .Notley's attempts to win favour with the federal government by playing nice got Alberta nowhere. And while she probably believes in her heart she put Alberta's interests first, it's hard to square that claim with her record. When the Trudeau government killed the Energy East pipeline, her government was silent. When she imposed a carbon tax, Ottawa didn't give her anything for it beyond its sincere gratitude. She didn't lift a finger to fight equalization. .Notley says if returned to the premier's office, she will repeal the Alberta Sovereignty Act, and will not proceed with plans for Alberta to control its own police or tax collection. It's an unwise move that would signal to Ottawa Alberta is sorry for causing such a ruckus and is ready to roll over again..Every politician claims every election is the "most important" election of their epoch, and most of the time they are wrong. Most of the time there isn't a great chasm between the main belligerents. But 2023 may be an exception..Either Alberta will strike out a significantly more independent path as a sub-national sovereign polity in 2023, or it will fall in line for whatever its betters have in store for it.
2022 saw the fall of Jason Kenney, and with it his government's policies of repeated lockdowns and mandates — and it seems, his bark-more-than bite policy toward Ottawa..The year closes with Alberta's first genuinely populist-conservative government since the second term of Ralph Klein (1997-2001,) and Canada's first-ever openly libertarian premier. .In her thus-far short time in office, Premier Danielle Smith has killed the gas tax, announced Alberta will not enforce the latest federal gun confiscation legislation, fired Deena Hinshaw and the entire board of Alberta Health Services and passed the Alberta Sovereignty Act. It's a good start and as big a break from Kenney in some ways as was Kenney from Rachel Notley a few years ago. .But 2022 was just the start. The year 2023 will be the main event. Albertans will go to the polls on May 29 and decide if they want to continue on the new course set by Smith, or return Notley to power to pick up where she left off in 2015..It's a tall order for Smith. She's taken over a United Conservative Party that for more than two years has badly trailed the NDP in both polls and fundraising. She has already consolidated the wayward conservative-sovereigntist vote in the Wildrose Independence Party from its high of 14% earlier in 2022 to almost nil in most polls now. But she will need to hold them together with the broader UCP coalition as she tries to close the gap with more fickle voters in Calgary and small urban centres..Unhelpful to her in stitching that coalition back together is the raw feeling left by Kenney's interventions against Smith during and after the leadership vote. Some voters must be asking themselves if Smith is up to the job if a longtime Conservative like Kenney clearly does not think so. .Into this mix we add an invigorated NDP. Nearly four years have passed since voters made that party Alberta's first ever one-term government. Polls indicate there's a not unreasonable chance Albertans could make the UCP Alberta's second one-term government. .Time heals many wounds, and it seems many voters forgave the NDP its chaotic four years in government. If nothing else, the UCP cannot claim to be any less chaotic after the debacle of the last three years. And many voters may ask themselves if things were all that different under the NDP. .It's true the economy is humming compared to Notley's term in government, and some of that can be chalked up to changes in policy like cutting business taxes, but high resource prices deserve a very big share of the credit. .But much is still the same. Personal income taxes are just as high as they were when Jim Prentice and Rachel Notley hiked them in 2015, and even a little higher since they were de-indexed for inflation by Kenney in 2019. .Revamping the NDP's social-engineering K-12 curriculum has stalled in the face of opposition from the teacher's unions. Healthcare is shambolic..And zero progress has been made in Kenney's promised "fightback" strategy against Ottawa. Albertans voted to scrap equalization in a referendum, and the government didn't lift a finger. Huge oilsands projects were killed by Trudeau without a by-your-leave. .Perhaps the Sovereignty Act and resisting enforcement of gun confiscation policies will move the needle, but it's too early to say. .It's understandable some voters just don't see all that big a risk in voting NDP after the last three years. .But the stakes are higher than that, or at least they are now..The UCP struck a much more ambitious path for itself in 2023. The differences between the UCP and NDP are now much wider than personality cults and a few relatively minor policy differences at the margins. .The biggest of these differences now clearly falls along their different views of Alberta's place in the federation..The UCP under Smith declared war on Ottawa's meddling and confiscatory policy in Alberta. The Sovereignty Act is the most talked-about arrow in her quiver, but she seems intent on Alberta building its own police force and tax collection, key ingredients in building greater independence from Ottawa. Smith promised fighting with Ottawa will now go beyond angry letters and furrowed brows..Notley strikes much the same pose she did as premier from 2015 to 2019. She says she will work cooperatively with the federal government, but always put Alberta's interests first. You might be cynical about her success on the former, and guffaw at the latter. And you'd probably be right. .Notley's attempts to win favour with the federal government by playing nice got Alberta nowhere. And while she probably believes in her heart she put Alberta's interests first, it's hard to square that claim with her record. When the Trudeau government killed the Energy East pipeline, her government was silent. When she imposed a carbon tax, Ottawa didn't give her anything for it beyond its sincere gratitude. She didn't lift a finger to fight equalization. .Notley says if returned to the premier's office, she will repeal the Alberta Sovereignty Act, and will not proceed with plans for Alberta to control its own police or tax collection. It's an unwise move that would signal to Ottawa Alberta is sorry for causing such a ruckus and is ready to roll over again..Every politician claims every election is the "most important" election of their epoch, and most of the time they are wrong. Most of the time there isn't a great chasm between the main belligerents. But 2023 may be an exception..Either Alberta will strike out a significantly more independent path as a sub-national sovereign polity in 2023, or it will fall in line for whatever its betters have in store for it.
