FILDEBRANDT: Alberta sovereigntists must think long & hard about what comes next

Losing a vote does not compel anyone to never try again. A defeated candidate is under no obligation to disband their party and not run in an election ever again. And Alberta's independence movement is under no obligation to follow the universal diktats of the media and political establishment to go away and die.But as with any defeated candidate, the independence movement would do itself a great favour in taking some time to think long and hard about what went wrong, and what comes next. My own thoughts on the matter are still evolving, but I'll share a few — such as they are — for now. Firstly, Albertans were never going to vote for independence unless and until they believed that every possible outlet for fixing Canada had been exhausted first. This is something that I have tried — unsuccessfully — to hammer home to sovereigntists for a decade. Dedicated sovereigntists are right when they say that the Canadian Constitution is written in stone, and is highly unlikely to ever be reformed. But most Albertans have not studied the Meech Lake and Charlottetown accords. They do not understand the intricacies of "The West Wants In" crusade of the Reform Party. They do not believe that Alberta has done everything in its power for generations to reform Canada on a basis of equality and fairness for all its members. For context: the Americans were at war with the British Empire for more than a year before they declared independence. Even as they slaughtered each other on the battlefield, the Americans held out hope that reconciliation was possible. Only when the king responded to the Olive Branch Petition with a promise to kill them all did they finally make the break. This is a lesson too many of my friends in the independence movement have just not wanted to hear. They do not believe reconciliation is possible, and so they just want to do it now, and damn the torpedoes..Before taking the radical action of breaking away from a country with which most of us still feel a deep attachment, Alberta must work in good faith toward substantial constitutional reform. And Jason Kenney's phantom referendum on equalization in 2021 just doesn't cut it. Alberta's government did precisely zero to advance it at the time, and most Albertans have already forgotten. Leadership and organization matter a lot too. Alberta's independence movement has always been plagued by the independence of each of its supporters. It tells itself that this individualism is a source of strength ("everyone is a leader"), but it is not. It makes its efforts uncoordinated, chaotic, and often contradictory. It makes it possible for grifters and blowhards to declare themselves leaders and claim to speak on behalf of the movement. That's fine and well for speaking to the converted, but it turns off the vast majority of Albertans. Some of those self-declared leaders spent more time over the last year attacking other voices in the independence movement than their real opponents. They jealously tried to elbow out anyone who would compete with them for influence or airtime. They even had the gall to self-appoint themselves to a delegation to the United States, which — rightly or wrongly — was perceived by many as inviting foreign meddling. These people — more than any Federalist campaign — helped to lead independence to defeat.The decentralized nature of the movement is a consequence of it being a "movement" and not a standalone political party. Alberta has had dedicated independence parties before, and none of them have gone anywhere for a variety of reasons. The biggest is fear of "splitting the vote", all the more so since the NDP's one-time victory in 2015. Jason Kenney invited the populist-right to flock to his banner as he tried to rally the Wildrose and Progressive Conservative parties together in 2017. He was well aware that many harboured sovereigntist ambitions, but believed he could keep them in check as he rode that dragon to victory in 2019. He could, until he couldn't. He still spends his days cursing those who put him into power, and calls for them to be expelled from the United Conservative Party (UCP).Similarly, Danielle Smith rode that same dragon to the premier's office in 2022. But she has yet to express similar disdain for them. She allowed the independence movement to have its referendum, even if sovereigntists were not ready for it. She declared herself for the federalists, but didn't exactly hit the hustings to campaign for them. Most leftist and establishment conservative federalists will never forgive her for it..The correct move for her after the referendum would have been to tell independence supporters — who make up a majority of her voters, and a decisive majority of her party's members — to give her a chance at real constitutional reform and internal sovereignty before planning for a second referendum. That — unfortunately — is not what she did. "Candidates running under our party banner need to be committed to, and support and abide by this position from the day they take out their nomination papers, throughout their candidacy, and for the duration of their time serving as MLAs in our caucus," said Smith in a social media video. "And for those few who cannot reconcile this fact and remain intent on dividing and turning our party into a vehicle for the independence movement, I would respectfully invite them to join a different party," Smith said in her video. Premier Smith is right to direct her government and party to respect the results of the referendum, but the tone of her remarks invites a split in the UCP back into separate, warring parties. It is not the message of reconciliation that is needed, as actors like Jeff Rath have been calling for her overthrow for the last year. Calls for the expulsion of people from the party could very well boomerang back on the premier.She is right when she tells sovereigntists that they need to accept the results of the referendum. But she is wrong to tell them that they must accept that defeat as permanent for all time, regardless of what happens next.So what does come next? Sovereigntists should pursue major constitutional reform. Not just ad hoc deals with Ottawa, but a new constitutional arrangement to make Canada work for all provinces.That is similar to the course Quebec nationalists took after their defeat in the first 1980 referendum. They made an honest-to-God effort to get the reforms to confederation they felt they needed (Meech Lake), before that failed and they launched their second 1995 referendum..Alberta's nationalists should pursue a similar course. It's unlikely to succeed, but it's where most Albertans are at right now. And maybe those of us who believe it's nigh impossible are wrong. Hopefully we are wrong. We have to try. Similarly, our critics were right to point out that Alberta has not already taken full control over areas within our own constitutional authority. Why would we establish an Alberta Armed Forces if we have not yet established an Alberta Police Force? Why would we establish an Alberta pension plan as a sovereign nation if we have not yet done so as a province with the sovereign authority to do so? Why would we wait to establish a citizenship and immigration ministry as a country when we can just do it right now, as has Quebec? If one's goal is nationhood (independence) or sovereignty within a united Canada (Premier Smith), these are all things that should be checked off our list. And make Premier Smith sweat. Sovereigntists should make clear to her that a Kenney-style phantom referendum on equalization that we just forget will not cut it. She will have to deliver. Or else. Smith has said that this is the path forward, and not independence. So make her deliver it. Give her time. Give her some grace and give her some patience. But do not give her a pass. Only after sovereigntists have supported an Alberta government that makes a sustained, credible, and good-faith effort at constitutional reform and internal sovereignty, should any thought whatever be given to a potential second referendum. Otherwise, it is likely to fail by an even greater margin than the first. And the result will be an NDP government.From Sun Tzu’s The Art of War:“Now the general who wins a battle makes many calculations in his temple ere the battle is fought. The general who loses a battle makes but few calculations beforehand. Thus do many calculations lead to victory, and few calculations to defeat: how much more no calculation at all! It is by attention to this point that I can foresee who is likely to win or lose.”

FILDEBRANDT: Alberta sovereigntists must think long & hard about what comes next

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