The following is an excerpt of a speech delivered to the Wildrose Independence PartyAs oil prices regularly boom and bust, Alberta’s independence movement regularly flares up in a burst of fiery energy and quickly recedes as the burning well is capped. The movement comes, it goes and comes back again.Today’s Alberta (and to an extent Saskatchewan’s) independence movement is at a familiar crossroads and despite record levels of hostility toward the federal government, is not poised to capitalize.It is in many ways a victim of its own success.. Trudeau Senior’s National Energy Program led to the election of a Western Canada Concept MLA in a 1982 by-election in Olds-Didsbury, but smart maneuvering by Premier Peter Lougheed convinced Albertans that he was the man to defend them within confederation, along with the hope that the PC’s would defeat the Liberals in short order.And so they did when Brian Mulroney inflicted a historic defeat on the Liberals in 1984 with overwhelming support from the West. But this support was betrayed, leading Preston Manning to channel the re-emerging forces of independence into the more moderate option of his Reform Party. In 1993, Reform annihilated the Progressive Conservatives in the West, and gave enough hope that unreconstructed attempts at independence became sidelined through the Chretien, Martin and Harper governments. Harper’s Conservative government failed to deliver on several of the big reforms Westerners had pinned their hopes on, but it was a strong voice with Westerners at the table. It was good enough for most.The temporary nature of pro-Western reforms was exposed almost immediately after Trudeau Junior’s election in 2015, as he quickly dismantled most of these reforms, save the (Western) Canadian Wheat Board, whose ship had sailed.Contentment for many Albertans (and some Saskatchewanians) with playing the tit-for-tat federal game gave way to support for independence again after the 2019 federal election. Trudeau had been returned to power without winning the popular vote and he had demonized Westerners in much the way his father had.Huge pro-independence “Wexit” rallies sprang up almost overnight. Soon, that movement merged with the autonomist/libertarian Freedom Conservative Party to form the Wildrose Independence Party. On the federal level, Wexit earned a huge boost in its credibility when former senior Conservative cabinet minister Jay Hill became its interim leader.By 2020, polls were showing an incredible 45% of Albertans backing independence. Then-premier Jason Kenney saw he had a major problem on his hands. He was a dedicated federalist, but a clear majority of his party’s voters were most definitely not. He commissioned his 'Fair Deal Panel' to tour Alberta and produce recommendations on protecting Alberta’s jurisdiction. It pacified things for a time and eventually recommended several sovereignty-focused policies, but stopped well short of where many Albertans were at. Polls showed the nascent Wildrose Independence Party climbing out of fringe status, to minor irritation status.Then COVID-19 hit. While not related to any historical Western or Alberta grievance, federal and provincial responses to it massively exacerbated differences between Albertans and Ottawa and even within Alberta between the government and the governed.Despite its efforts, the Kenney government was seen as much closer to Ottawa’s heavy-handed approach to COVID (lockdowns, vaccine passports, arresting pastors) than to the preference of many Albertans for a lighter approach.After a 2021 illegal anti-lockdown rodeo in central Alberta, Kenney told his caucus, “If they are our base, I want a new base,” according to MLAs who spoke to the Western Standard.But by then, Kenney’s base had left him. Polling numbers for Kenney went from a downward trend to a crashing collapse. And while they bled some support to the NDP, the bulk of lost support went to the Wildrose Independence Party, which polls showed climbing from minor irritation status, to full-blown threat.If he had continued as UCP leader and premier until the 2023 election, Kenney would almost certainly have been defeated, with the Wildrose Independence Party winning somewhere likely between a strong third-place finish, or forming the official opposition. Alberta would have very likely seen a repeat of 2015, with Rachel Notley leading a restored NDP government and a divided right in the opposition benches.But history played out differently.An ad-hoc coalition made up mostly of former Kenney allies organized to force a leadership vote and eventually succeeded in toppling him.Former Wildrose leader, QR77 talk show host and Western Standard host Danielle Smith won the UCP leadership by embracing the two large and overlapping groups most disgruntled with Kenney’s premiership: the anti-lockdown/mandate movement and the Alberta independence/sovereignty movement. Both groups broadly saw their rally cry as “freedom.”Her promised Sovereignty Act — while almost universally denounced by the media and political classes (in both parties) — was like capturing lightning in a bottle. It was muscular enough to win the support of the independence/sovereignty movement, but not so radical as to repel moderate federalists.Of course, the version of the Sovereignty Act that passed the Alberta Legislature into law was much softer than the vision as outlined during the leadership campaign, but it was still tough. And most importantly, it was a strong and unapologetic declaration of sovereignty (although not independence) from Alberta. The more Ottawa and the chattering classes hated it, the more we loved it.Almost immediately after her election as UCP leader and ascension as premier, polling support for the Wildrose Independence Party and independence itself began to drop. Fast.Support for independence dropped from a high of 45% in May of 2020 to just 22% in July of 2023.Support for the Wildrose Independence Party went from 20% in June of 2021, to almost zero on election day in June of 2023.And while support for WIP dropped upon Smith’s coming to power in the UCP, the WIP itself decided to field only a small slate of candidates in the general election, removing it as an option in the vast majority of constituencies.Adding to the party’s difficulties, a complicated split took place as Paul Hinman was ousted from the leadership and set up his own 'Wildrose Loyalty Coalition.' Together with The Alberta Independence Party, that makes three official parties committed to independence.As of the 2023 election, Alberta has become a strictly two-party system. The Wildrose Independence Party, Alberta Party and Liberals collectively poll in the low single digits.Ironically, the Wildrose Independence Party would almost certainly have seats in the legislature and poll at least respectably today, if its earlier polling success hadn’t played a role in pushing Kenney out of the UCP leadership.Additionally, Justin Trudeau will not make a useful avatar of Laurentian duplicity for much longer. Most rightly believe that Trudeau is going to lose the next federal election and be replaced by the Western-friendly and Calgary-born Pierre Poilievre. Appetite for a divisive and difficult debate on full-on independence will diminish even further for at least the medium term. What options are there then for the Alberta independence movement and the Wildrose Independence Party?Active Political CombatantThe party could try to pick up where it left off before the election of Danielle Smith to the premiership. This involves the gargantuan task of building an effective fundraising machine, local constituency associations, detailed policy development, candidate recruitment and professional communications.This option is by far the most difficult and would face the inevitable fact that — at least for the time being — Alberta sovereigntists are solidly behind Smith and the UCP.Armed NeutralityLike Switzerland, the party could abstain from active political combatant status while building itself into a cadre organization, ready to enter the fray if and when the UCP government strays too far from its commitment to advancing Alberta’s sovereignty. Because most sovereignty support is solidly behind the UCP at this time, this option is logistically feasible and allows it to be a sentinel, ready to become a danger if provoked.Pressure GroupSimilar to the 'armed neutrality' option, refocusing as a pressure group would not see the party intend to go head-to-head with the UCP colossus. It would focus on policy development, education and organization to pressure the UCP to move in its direction. Most people would not see membership in both parties as a conflict of interest.There is already a homegrown template for this in Alberta, where the defunct Social Credit Party was renamed and repurposed into the Pro-Life Association of Alberta. It uses the generous tax credit system to raise funds and puts all of its efforts behind public policy outcomes, rather than electoral success. It runs only a single token candidate in a single constituency for the purpose of maintaining its registration.Going ForwardIndependence as a movement dedicated to the creation of an Alberta or Western nation-state is not for the moment a well fire. It’s not burning. But neither is it capped. There is still pressure thrusting energy upward to be used. Albertans may not be ready to throw Laurentian tea into the harbour, but they are ready and willing to push back aggressively against federal overreach and take back Alberta’s rightful constitutional sovereignty.The well will burst into flame again at some unknown point in the future, but in the meantime, Alberta can build a house capable of standing on its own feet for when the time comes.
