It was one of the more interesting days in my time at the Western Standard as we began a real-time, play-by-play report of events transpiring inside the UCP meeting of May 13, 2021..This was not a routine caucus meeting dealing with government business of the week; it was almost certainly the most pivotal meeting of the UCP Caucus since the last election as it met to discuss and vote on the expulsion of two rebel members..In the first minutes of May 13, Central Peace-Notley MLA Todd Loewen published a damning letter listing what he sees as the failures of Alberta Premier Jason Kenney’s leadership and, notably, calling for him to resign. He was joined soon after by Bonnyvile–Cold Lake–St. Paul MLA David Hanson..A scheduled caucus meeting for the meeting was canceled, but by 12:25 pm, an MLA in the caucus told me it was back on, and this time it was “mandatory.”.The first item on the agenda was discussion of regular leaks from the caucus to the Western Standard. By this time, several MLAs in the caucus were in discussion with myself and others in our newsroom, giving real-time updates on the proceedings. As a policy, the Western Standard does not discuss its sources, but we can say the two MLAs who would eventually be expelled were not among them..Soon after the meeting that discussed leaks to the Western Standard started, the Western Standard published a story about the meeting discussing the leaks. At 1:52 pm, we published an update that the story itself was then being discussed in the caucus. It was admittedly rather meta..At 2:20 pm, sources told the Western Standard that UCP Whip Mike Ellis gave an “executioner’s speech” about the need to expel Todd Loewen, but also Drew Barnes who’d not actually called for Kenney’s resignation..Speaking with one of the sources yesterday, an MLA (who remains in the UCP caucus) says Ellis launched a “slander campaign” against the two MLAs, accusing them of being the leaks..If this story was being narrated by Morgan Freeman, his voice would croon, “But they weren’t the leaks.”.According to one of the actual leaks, Ellis’s evidence against Barnes was that he was close to several trouble-makers from the former Wildrose Party, some of whom are now members of the Wildrose Independence Party. In particular, the source said Ellis accused Barnes of being friends with Danny Hozack, who’d been the Wildrose candidate in Vermilion-Lloydminster in 2012 and 2015. He’s now president of the local Wildrose Independence Party constituency association..The same source said Ellis’s “indictment” against Todd Loewen didn’t actually include any reference to his letter calling for Kenney’s resignation. Instead, it similarly focused on his association with malcontents from the former Wildrose Party. His constituency association has been a hotbed of discontent calling for a leadership review of Kenney. In particular, the source said, “Todd knows the people who started ‘Holding MLAs Accountable,’ a Facebook group run by dissident UCP members..While the indictment against Loewen and Barnes did not include any mention of the letter demanding Kenney’s resignation, the formal motion put forward by Airdrie-Cochrane MLA Peter Guthrie did..Many political watchers were left scratching their heads that Barnes – who did not openly call for Kenney’s resignation – was punted, while Dave Hanson – who publicly seconded Loewen’s letter – was not..One source in the caucus meeting tells us Hanson said, “If you’re kicking people out based on circumstantial evidence, you may as well add my name to the list.”.For reasons as yet unknown, they did not. By looping Barnes into the motion to expel Loewen, Kenney was clearly hoping for a house-cleaning purge. Why would he not then rip the Band-aid off and expel Hanson, and possibly a few others with them?.The most reasonable explanation is Kenney simply didn’t have the votes for a mass purge..The vote itself was not a secret ballot. MLAs texted their votes to Nick Milliken, Loewen’s replacement as caucus chairman. MLAs from both sides say they trust Milliken’s integrity to count the votes honestly, but raise questions as to why the vote totals were never released..Several MLAs told us they believed the vote to have been too close for Kenney’s comfort. One of these MLAs gave their best guess that it was 70-30% in favour of expelling Barnes, and just 50% +1 for expelling Loewen. This also while the entire cabinet (22 MLAs) were all whipped to vote with the premier, who claims he had nothing to do with the expulsion..While Loewen’s sin (calling on the premier to resign) was greater than Barnes’, the Medicine Hat man had been a regular thorn in the side of the government for more than a year now. And while Barnes is a bit of a lone wolf, Loewen is regularly at the centre of caucus social functions, famously making waffles for the team during late night or early morning sittings in the legislature..A 70-30% vote hardly demonstrates to the public the caucus has confidence in Kenney’s leadership. A 51-49% vote could fairly be interpreted as quite near a non-confidence vote by the caucus. If Kenney had failed in the attempt to purge Loewen after such a high-profile (and live reported) ordeal, he would likely have been forced to resign himself..None of this points toward things getting easier for the premier. His caucus is still full of unhappy MLAs, some of whom are demanding change, some of whom believe he must go. The most common theme amongst the MLAs I spoke to over the last several days was them consistently saying, almost word-for-word, “I have no future running under Kenney again.”.For the most part, they are focused on ousting Kenney from the leadership, reforming the UCP from within, and repairing the damage done to Wildrose-PC unity. Some believe it’s just a matter of time before Kenney falls, and others believe that there is only a small hope. One said, “Kenney must go. We will lose with him. But he would rather see the party burn around him than ever give up power.”.Most say if a leadership change and reform isn’t possible, then they will have to reexamine their options over the coming year..The war for the soul of the UCP seems unlikely to end with the expulsion of Loewen and Barnes. More likely, it is just getting started..Derek Fildebrandt is the Publisher of the Western Standard
