Tom Flanagan is professor emeritus of political science at the University of Calgary and a senior fellow of the Frontier Centre for Public Policy.First Nations led the charge. Now the Métis are catching up. Ottawa’s legal surrender strategy could make payouts the new national policy.Indigenous class-action litigation seeking compensation for historical grievances began in earnest with claims related to Indian Residential Schools. The federal government eventually chose negotiation over litigation, settling for about $5 billion with “survivors.” Then–prime minister Stephen Harper hoped this would close the chapter, but it opened the floodgates instead. Class actions have followed ever since.By 2023, the federal government had paid or committed $69.6 billion in 2023 dollars to settle these claims. What began with residential schools expanded into day schools, boarding homes, the “Sixties Scoop,” unsafe drinking water, and foster-care settlements. Most involved status Indians. Métis claims had generally been unsuccessful, until now..OLDCORN: Transgender youth surgery controversy — Getson’s ‘livestock’ comparison wasn’t cruel, it was common sense.Two recent Métis class actions suggest that Ottawa’s non-litigation approach will trigger even more settlements. Both cases followed the now-familiar pattern: file a class action and wait for Ottawa to fold.One case concerns residential schooling in Île-à-la-Crosse, a northern Saskatchewan village with deep Métis roots. A boarding school operated there from 1860 to the early 1970s, mostly serving Métis children. Although never officially designated an Indian Residential School (IRS), the federal government did fund some status Indian attendance.Because the school wasn’t on the official IRS list, former students were excluded from the IRS Settlement Agreement. Represented initially by Tony Merchant’s law firm and later by Sotos LLP, a class action was launched in 2022..Even before litigation progressed, Ottawa had agreed to negotiate, signing a memorandum of understanding in 2019. In March 2025, the federal government reached an agreement-in-principle, with court approval expected in early 2026. Saskatchewan reached its own deal later that year.Canada is putting up $27 million and Saskatchewan $40 million. With 600 to 700 expected claimants, payouts could average $100,000, though details remain unpublished, and family claimants may increase the total.Compensation will be paid for “cultural loss abuse,” including loss of the Cree and Michif languages. Sexual or physical abuse was not cited. As in previous settlements, payments will go to all who attended. No proof of loss is required; attendance alone is considered evidence of harm..RUBENSTEIN: OneBC leader’s truthful comments drive Métis indigenous delegation from legislature.While $67 million is minor by Ottawa’s standards, the precedent is substantial. Thousands of Métis attended mission-run schools excluded from earlier settlements. The IALC deal sets a precedent. Even small claims may multiply, pushing Ottawa and provinces into consolidated settlements.This outcome is puzzling given Ottawa’s recent win in a similar case: the Timber Bay Hostel dispute. That case involved a church-run hostel in northern Saskatchewan that housed indigenous children attending school. It wasn’t an IRS, and Ottawa only paid per-child subsidies. The Lac La Ronge Indian Band sought inclusion in the IRS Settlement. They lost at trial and appeal; the courts found that Canada wasn’t responsible for operations or care.The same logic could arguably have applied to Île-à-la-Crosse. But in this case, Ottawa chose not to fight..Métis organizations have been pursuing other claims using this same playbook. In 2018, Koskie Minsky launched a class action for Métis excluded from the Sixties Scoop settlement, which had paid nearly $40,000 each to over 21,000 Indian and Inuit adoptees.In 2021, the class action was certified. In 2025, the Federal Court ruled that Ottawa was only liable in Saskatchewan. Other provinces would require separate suits. The plaintiffs are appealing.The biggest Métis victory so far came in Manitoba. From 2005 to 2019, the province clawed back the Children’s Special Allowance — a federal benefit for children in care — from agencies. A class action followed, and when Wab Kinew’s NDP came to power in 2024, it quickly settled. Manitoba agreed to pay $530 million..ALBERS: Canada is risking its own collapse by sabotaging the West.That’s a massive cost for a province of just 1.5 million — proportionally equal to a $20-billion expenditure for Canada. Such wins encourage more litigation. Appetite comes with eating, and Canada’s class-action bar is growing. Firms now compete to file indigenous claims.The wave of indigenous class actions was largely driven by a directive under Jody Wilson-Raybould when she was federal justice minister. She instructed federal lawyers to favour negotiation over litigation. Though Canada has excellent legal resources, the state rarely fights these cases to the end.The result: ballooning liabilities. The Parliamentary Budget Officer pegged them at $76 billion in 2023 and growing. Now provinces appear to be adopting the same approach.Many of these class actions rest on new, untested legal theories. They deserve to be challenged in court, possibly to the Supreme Court. Settling too early short-circuits legal review and invites more claims.Tom Flanagan is professor emeritus of political science at the University of Calgary and a senior fellow of the Frontier Centre for Public Policy.