FLETCHER: Canada’s ‘net zero’ dream sinks slowly in the west

B.C. Premier David Eby, flanked by Energy Minister Adrian Dix and Finance Minister Brenda Bailey, announces his plan to push through repeal of B.C.’s carbon tax in a single day to match the federal government’s sudden cancellation, March 31, 2025.
B.C. Premier David Eby, flanked by Energy Minister Adrian Dix and Finance Minister Brenda Bailey, announces his plan to push through repeal of B.C.’s carbon tax in a single day to match the federal government’s sudden cancellation, March 31, 2025. Tom Fletcher photo
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Tom Fletcher grew up in the Peace River region and has covered B.C. politics and business as a journalist since 1984

It was a lonely time in 2008, to be the only columnist in B.C. who was arguing in favour of a newfangled carbon tax.

It was a modest one, about a third of where the tax reached before it was abruptly axed in March, after being imposed by Justin Trudeau on the entire country (except Quebec.) The original B.C. version was entirely offset by personal and business income tax reductions, so it was broadly accepted. In fact the B.C. government lost money in some early years, making sure the measure was revenue neutral as promised and not a thinly disguised tax grab.

My argument was that it was a nudge, an incentive to buy a smaller, more fuel-efficient vehicle, ride a bike or move to a more walkable neighbourhood. Obesity was a growing problem, not only for adults but kids cocooned in minivans. It wasn’t going to change the weather but it was good for an urbanizing, aging society.

The B.C. NDP ran an “axe the tax” campaign, unsuccessfully as they lost the 2009 election, their third of four losses in a row. When they finally squeaked into government with the help of three B.C. Greens, one of their early moves was to resume carbon tax increases and cancel the revenue neutrality, replacing it with modest low-income rebates and an array of Green-pleasing subsidy programs.

These programs are now on the chopping block, as B.C.’s post-carbon tax budget goes from bad to worse with the loss of $1.65 billion in net revenue. They include assistance for electric vehicle charging stations, e-bikes, bus passes for low-income seniors, energy-saving home retrofits, heat pumps, compost collection, ocean debris removal, plastic recycling and millions for local government “climate action” plans.

We’re also seeing the wheels come off the electric vehicle bandwagon. B.C. pioneered that as well, embracing the once-popular notion that planetary climate can be altered by politicians setting bold, arbitrary targets for years that invariably end in zero or five. Requiring 90 per cent of new vehicles to be zero-emission by 2035 as they did in Europe? The B.C. NDP moved that up to 2030.

That’s where the target remains today, and it’s the most aggressive target in the western world. Note that this means the 2030 model year, so car dealers have only four years left to triple their EV sales. If you think that is likely, I have a used Tesla you may want to test drive.

It’s now dawning on the provincial government that even if they could build the thousands of charging stations that would be required, they don’t have the electricity to run them. They are discovering the hard way that taking advice from a 16-year-old high school dropout from Sweden was an unwise idea.

Newly installed federal Liberal leader Mark Carney quickly jettisoned the carbon tax he spent years promoting world-wide as a United Nations and World Economic Forum executive. It’s not yet clear how his proposed replacement, a higher industrial carbon tax, will affect a Canadian economy that’s already starved for investment and private-sector employment. The only thing clear about it is that consumers would ultimately have to pay it.

Carney has also proposed border duties on goods from countries that don’t have a price on carbon. Now that Canada is arguably one of those countries, that doesn’t seem viable, especially as Canada already faces a trade war with the United States driven by its existing preferential trade policies.

The last climate arrow in Carney’s quiver is a greenhouse gas emissions cap, a Trudeau proposal that would target only Canadian oil and natural gas. He first said he would drop that, then promised to implement it, predictably raising the ire of Alberta and Saskatchewan where it sounds like another measure unfairly tilted against Western Canada.

This would not only stunt the growth of B.C.’s emerging liquefied natural gas export industry, it would likely end up as an incentive for Eastern Canada to continue importing oil from Saudi Arabia and Nigeria rather than using Canadian oil.

Will Canada be “net zero” by 2050, as even our oil industry has been pressured into promising? Not a hope.

Tom Fletcher grew up in the Peace River region and has covered B.C. politics and business as a journalist since 1984.

tomfletcherbc@gmail.com

X:@tomfletcherbc

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