Here's a thing: Polling suggests that under leader John Rustad, the BC provincial Conservatives appear to have come from nowhere to be a serious force in BC. What does this mean when voting day arrives on October 19 this year?Well, undeniably the BC Conservative poll tracking change in the last year coincides with the rise of Pierre Poilievre federally.There are also changes coming to the electoral map. Current standings of the BC Legislature of 87 seats are NDP 55 (government), BC United Party 26 (Official Opposition, formerly the BC Liberals), Green Party 2, BC Conservative Party 2 and Independent 2.For the next election, there will be six additional districts in high-growth areas of the province and changes to the boundaries of 72 districts. There will thus be an increase to 93 electoral districts for the next provincial election, up from 87, making 47 seats the target for a majority. These changes generally favour the NDP, however. What about these 'Independents?' Interestingly, both are former NDP MLAs who came into conflict with NDP Premier Eby. Selina Robinson, MLA Coquitlam-Maillardville, was recently fired from Cabinet for comments about the Gaza War and she then resigned from her caucus to sit as an Independent. Adam Walker, NDP MLA for Parksville-Qualicum was summarily removed from caucus for rumoured conflicts over his own computer business and legislature rules.Conservative MLA Bruce Banman was elected on September 13, 2003, as a BC Liberal for Abbotsford South, a historically conservative area. The BC Liberals under their new leader Kevin Falcon, later changed their name to BC United, as the party was the coalition non-socialist free enterprise alternative to the NDP. The BC Liberals were traditionally centre-right, rising to Opposition in the early 1990s and forming government for 16 years starting in 2001 with Gordon Campbell until 2011, then Christy Clarke from 2011 to 2017. Banman won his election in Abbotsford South in 2020 as part of the BC Liberals. Banman was Abbotsford's mayor from 2011 to 2014 and, more recently, a city councilor before the election. He likely will be re-elected.His split from BC United was precipitated by a non-binding vote over the denunciation of the Ottawa Trucker Convoy. Other issues ensued. He said, “We don’t support Trudeau-backed policies like the punishing carbon tax that hurts everyday people. We refuse to condone the ideological NDP education agenda (SOGI) that teaches students what to think instead of how to think. And we will never support the myth of safe supply that kills British Columbians and poisons our communities with hard drugs.” Bruce Banman left the BC United Caucus to join the lone BC Conservative MLA John Rustad. Back to Rustad. On March 24, 2023, Rustad announced his intention to seek the leadership of the Conservative Party and on March 31, he was acclaimed leader. Rustad, a longtime B.C. Liberal MLA had been removed from the BC United Caucus after questioning climate change science. He had served as Aboriginal Relations Minister and Forests Minister under Christy Clark's Liberals. However, BC United leader Kevin Falcon removed him from the Party after Rustad had boosted a social media post casting doubt on climate change media, and urged people to "celebrate CO2." Leader Kevin Falcon was having none of it, saying that Rustad did not speak on behalf of the caucus on the issue. Kevin Falcon made a serious mistake with his overreaction by sending a chilling signal to his free enterprise coalition party membership, that independent views had no margin for tolerance.Election day in BC is only seven months away. The polling numbers say that BC is going to sail smoothly into the NDP harbour again. Premier Eby will have to significantly mess up or have another scandal revealed for the political opposition to give him concern. Non-NDP voters despairingly look at the seriously divided free enterprise alternative to the NDP juggernaut. The latest poll tells a story. NDP 46% ± 5% BC Cons 22% ± 4% BCU 18% ± 3% Green 11% ± 3%However, underneath those polls, the rising BC Conservates are probably too far behind in party membership, money, and notoriety of their leader John Rustad, to be a realistic threat to the NDP this time around. BC United under Leader Kevin Falcon has better name recognition and has a known political track record as a minister in Christy Clarke’s government. Falcon just launched a slick TV ad to remind BC voters that BC United is the credible alternative to the NDP. Most voters do not know who is the leader of the BC Conservatives. Their House Leader in the Caucus of Two, Bruce Banman, has no name recognition or political profile outside of the Fraser Valley Abbotsford area. Although polls have put the dynamic duo ahead of BC United, it seems like a bridge too far. In the time left, it is doubtful they can acquire the money, political machinery and general profile to seriously challenge the NDP machine. The media will certainly be of no help.Consequently, at this point media interest will be somewhat on the summer contest for second place. The landscape reminds me of the old federal Reform Party problem of divided conservative voter loyalties. Vote splitting elected Jean Chretien. The awful federal Liberals were able to form government four times until conservative-minded folk joined together.A similar story is going to unfold in BC politics. Which leader will emerge as the one that will earn the free enterprise support as the credible alternative to the NDP? Sadly at present, it is a standoff.
