With only three months to go before the election on October 19, the BC political landscape is undergoing a shift of seismic proportions. A shock poll from dependable Mainstreet Research Polls suggests the BC Conservatives have come from behind and will form government, at the next election, October 19th.The established official opposition, the BC United Party, faces ballot-box annihilation... Old standards from the ruling New Democrats are announcing their retirements. And now, former political adversaries are forming once-unimaginable unions with the BC Conservatives. Mainstreet's July 6, 2024, is a surprise. As recently as six months ago, the NDP government appeared strong. Even in mid-June, polls placed the governing NDP still in winning territory, although the BC Conservatives had already swamped the BC United party and were showing a strong second.Mainstreet now reveals that the NDP government has lost support and has only a statistical tie with the BC Conservatives. However, when asked to consider or contemplate voting for the BC Conservatives led by John Rustad, 51% would consider with a 40% negative.Conversely, 44% of respondents would consider or contemplate voting for the BC NDP led by David Eby, but with a surprisingly high negative of 54%. Therefore, the trend is holding for the rise of the BC Conservatives compared to all others.I boldly predicted in the Western Standard that voters would undoubtedly support them. “I bet that the voters who cannot abide another NDP term in office will coalesce behind the BC Conservatives.” Sure enough, with less than four months until BC's provincial election, a different poll places the current official opposition in the Legislature, the BC United party led by Kevin Falcon having fallen to fourth place behind the Greens, led by Sonia Furstenau. So, the political landscape has shifted. The BC Conservatives are on a roll. Reputable candidates are coming forward, such as former Surrey Mayor Linda Hepner, who was nominated for Surrey-Serpentine River. On the Sunshine Coast, a nominated BC United candidate quit his party to run for the BC Conservatives. Chris Moore is now running in Powell River-Sunshine Coast.A former elected Vancouver Park Board Commissioner, John Coupar, is the Conservative Candidate for Vancouver-Little Mountain.Leader John Rustad has been an MLA since 2005. He was acclaimed Leader of the Conservatives on March 31, 2023. He has since been joined by Bruce Banman, MLA for Abbotsford South, Lorne Doerkson, MLA for Cariboo-Chilcotin, and Elenore Sturko, MLA for Surrey South.It's a situation different from what was envisioned a year ago. .What is really making waves however is that former BC Green Party leader Andrew Weaver is considering throwing his considerable moral weight behind Rustad.Weaver is an interesting figure. He made his name as a climate scientist and is currently professor in the School of Earth and Ocean Sciences at the University of Victoria.But as a politician, he represented the provincial riding of Oak Bay-Gordon Head from 2013 to 2020 and led the Green Party of BC from 2015 to the end of his term. By supporting John Horgan's NDP in May 2017, he allowed them to oust Premier Christy Clark and form government. This does not seem like a resume that would dispose him to support a Conservative.However... Says Weaver, "I recently publicly opined that I was considering supporting John Rustad's Conservative Party of BC in the October election, which brought a flood of inquiries on how that squared with my beliefs as a climate scientist." "Since Eby assumed the premier's chair, radical ideological-driven activism, empty promises with destructive consequences, and out-of-touch hubris embody the hallmarks of his tenure."Weaver then told CBC News that the Conservative Leader will be elected the next premier on October 19."Rustad reminds me a lot of John Horgan in that he's a listener. He's somebody that will listen to you, will disagree with you, but is open to change his views," said Weaver. "What we're looking for is someone who's authentic, willing to talk to us, willing to listen.".Rustad welcomed Weaver's endorsement. “Quite frankly, I think he would make a great candidate for us if we could ever find a place if he would be interested in running for us,” said Rustad. Weaver said Wednesday he has no plans to run for office, but would be happy to be a climate advisor to Rustad. Weaver's comments are evidence of strong momentum for the BC Conservatives.Certainly, voters are now giving Rustad serious consideration. But, here's the question: Is this party — which is nit new but composed almost entirely of inexperienced people — competent to govern? For voters to put the BC Conservatives over the top, do they have confidence and trust that they can elect enough MLAs with wisdom and experience to rule wisely, return some normalcy, and extinguish radicalism? In my view, it's possible. Stephen Harper faced the same challenge in 2006, and succeeded. Harper made David Emerson, a capable Liberal MP, Minister of International Trade. Emerson's role in resolving Canada's problematic soft-wood lumber dispute with the USA is a matter of record.To argue from the other direction, when Stockwell Day became Canadian Alliance leader, he did not bring with him a wise inner circle, and did not sufficiently seek out or attract heavyweights in policy or political management. While Day was himself a strong player, his lack of bench strength hurt his party's performance.In my view, Rustad has experience in a cabinet and is humble enough to seek out good people for help. He said he would welcome academic Andrew Weaver (former Leader of the Green Party) to run for the BC Conservatives. Although Weaver declined, he will undoubtedly provide advice. Rustad’s reputation has been helped by the success of the federal Conservatives, who have highlighted the shortcomings of the political left on economic well-being. NDP Premier Eby has also revealed that he is no John Horgan, both in policy emphasis, temperament, and personal likability.Professor Weaver may be right, that Rustad will be the next premier of BC.
