FORSETH: Place no hope in another Russian revolution

Canadians who do not support Ukraine at this point in history are selfish. In fact in my view, they may even subvert Canada’s interests. WATCH: Madam Yuliya Kovaliv, Ukraine's Ambassador to Canada, explains Canada's interests in Ukraine to Western Standard Opinion Editor Nigel Hannaford.Allow me to dig up some ancient history. For, I have been to both the Moscow Duma (Parliament) and the Kyiv Verkhovna Rada (Parliament.) And I have personally observed some of the many twists and upsets concerning the political leadership in both countries.Certainly, as Ukraine's critics assert, both have a history of political and economic corruption and coercion. However, Ukraine had revolutions, and despite severe meddling from Moscow, Kyiv stumbled forward toward Western-style democracy. Ukraine's leader was welcomed in our Parliament. Can you imagine Vladimir Putin addressing the Canadian House of Commons? It would be highly offensive: The free world would mock.Most rational Canadians know who our friends are, and are perceptive enough to recognize the evil in some Leaders such as Putin. Ukraine is a work in progress. But Moscow? They did the opposite. They have chosen dictatorship.Ukrainian writer Daryna Shevchenko is a prescient observer, whose work I recommend to those wanting to know more about the real Ukraine. She says that it's time we stop waiting and hoping for the Russian people to stop the war, that it's a Canadian delusion about Russia, that the solution to Russia’s war of aggression lies in the hands of the Russian people. We think, “If only they would stop believing Putin’s lies, and rebel against the evil dictatorship that has Russia deceived.” That is self-deception. It's easy to do: This horrible war does not touch our lives in Canada, so we indulge in armchair geopolitical musing. We contemplate what might be the “right words” to motivate Russians against Putin, or how Russians might answer the Kremlin's latest lies. But for decades, the world focused on what Russia wanted us to see, from Dostoyevsky and Tolstoy to Tchaikovsky and Rachmaninoff. However, the truth is that Russia has been an authoritarian empire for a long time, and living in the centre of an empire comes with a certain equilibrium. For a few years, Russians — like the people from countries formerly part of the Soviet Union — had a window of opportunity to build a democracy. They didn’t take it.The Russian people have continued to enjoy some benefits of their empire without asking too many questions or making political accountability and basic rights, a thing. Any chance for a democracy to develop was taken away from them, and they did not fight back. Russian civil society didn't rise against Russia's invasion of Georgia in 2008, its initial invasion of eastern Ukraine and the annexation of Crimea in 2014, or its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The largest anti-war protest since the start of the full-scale invasion likely only had a couple thousand people gathered in Moscow on Feb. 24, 2022.A common excuse is that Russians have been fed state propaganda and deprived of objective information for too long. While there’s no doubt that the Kremlin’s propaganda machine is strong, Russians have access to facts if they care to search for them.While the Kremlin has cracked down on freedom of speech for quite some time, many independent Russian journalists continued to work in Russia until 2022. Russian independent media operating in exile claim to reach millions living in Russia.The Russian people have never existed in a complete information vacuum. They have traveled the world, enjoyed the perks of liberal democracies in the West and connected with people around the world, including Ukrainians.In the first days of the full-scale invasion, a massive campaign circulated on social media calling on Ukrainians to talk to their friends and family in Russia — to inform them of what was going on and to urge them to stand up for Ukraine. The response was indifferent fatalism, saying they can do nothing to change things.Ukrainians know what it means when they say that “power belongs to the people.” Ukrainians have determined their nation’s path through free and fair elections and revolutions when necessary. Average Russians have not done the same, and there is no prospect they ever will.Russian polls say 77% of Russians support the invasion of Ukraine and believe Putin’s lies for why. And yet somehow, Canadians believe that the only way to end this war is to encourage the Russian people to overthrow Putin. As Ukraine fights a war to protect the future of the world’s democratic values, the scorched earth of war in Ukrainian towns is treated as collateral damage. Ukraine has only been given enough support from Canada and the USA to sustain a front line, not to repel the invaders. Vainly hoping that Russians are the answer to ending the war doesn’t help Ukraine. Our sleep-walking must end. Kidding ourselves that one day the “good Russians” will change the war, just gives room for the Kremlin to rearm, regroup, and kill more Ukrainians.If Ukraine falls, Russia will move further into Europe. This is not melodrama, we must seriously understand what Ukrainian society has been saying in dealing with the aggressor. Russian society is not the solution to Russia; Ukraine is. If Ukraine falls on our watch, there will be no solution. Then the darkest of days will surely follow.