To meet international government mandates for electric vehicles, (EV,) a total of 388 new mines must be commissioned to produce the metals required for EV production, finds a new study released today by the Fraser Institute, an independent, non-partisan, Canadian public policy think-tank."The sheer scale of mining required to meet EV mandates raises serious questions about the timelines being imposed by governments," said Kenneth Green, a senior fellow at the Fraser Institute and author of Can Metal Mining Match the Speed of the Planned Electric Vehicle Transition?According to a federal mandate, all new passenger vehicles and light trucks sold in Canada must be zero-emission by 2035, and 50 percent of all new passenger cars and light trucks in the U.S. must be zero-emission by 2030.Again, to meet international EV mandates, a total of 388 new mines must be built to provide the necessary minerals including nickel and lithium. For context, as of 2021, only 270 metal mines of all kinds operated in the U.S., and only 70 operated in Canada. Moreover, due to the time required to locate, design, develop, and build mining and refining projects — including time related to regulatory requirements imposed by the government — it takes significant time to get mining projects up and running.For example, lithium production takes between six and nine years, and nickel production takes between 13 and 18 years. In light of these production timelines, the Canadian federal EV mandate, which is approximately 11 years away (2035,) seems unrealistic. “The significant risk of inadequate mineral and metal production threatens the viability and realism of government-mandated EV transition plans,” Green said.The governments of Canada, the United States, and many other nations are mandating a shift in vehicle technology, away from vehicles powered primarily by internal combustion engines and toward vehicles powered primarily with electricity stored on board in batteries.Canada's government has established policies designed to push automakers to achieve the government's goal of having 35 percent of all new medium and heavy-duty vehicle sales be electric by 2030, rising to 100 percent of all new medium and heavy-duty vehicle sales be electric by 2040.The US has set a target requiring 50 percent of all new passenger cars and light trucks sold in 2030 to be electric, or largely electric hybrid vehicles. These timelines are ambitious, calling for a major expansion of the prevalence of electric vehicles (EVs) in the major vehicle classes in a very short time — only 7 to 10 years.Barring breakthrough developments in battery technology, this massive and rapid expansion of battery-electric vehicle production will require a correspondingly massive and rapid expansion of the mining and refining of the metals and rare earth elements critical to battery-electric vehicle technology.The International Energy Agency (IEA) suggests that to meet international EV adoption pledges, the world will need 50 new lithium mines by 2030, along with 60 new nickel mines, and 17 new cobalt mines. The materials needed for cathode production will require 50 more new mines, and anode materials another 40. The battery cells will require 90 new mines, and EVs themselves another 81. In total, this adds up to 388 new mines. Historically, however, mining and refining facilities are both slow to develop and are highly uncertain endeavors plagued by regulatory uncertainty and environmental and regulatory barriers. Lithium production timelines, for example, are approximately 6 to 9 years, while production timelines (from production application) for nickel are approximately 13 to 18 years, according to the IEA.The establishment of aggressive and short-term EV adoption goals sets up a potential conflict with metal and mineral production, which is historically characterized by long lead times and long production timelines. The risk that mineral and mining production will fall short of projected demand is significant, and could greatly affect the success of various governments' plans for EV transition.In my review, the targets are not achievable, and neither are they wise policy. When real-world reality hits the environmental politicians in the face, they will just change the targets, and then self-righteously claim that they are on track for their new targets. The real answer is to get rid of these myth-makers. The electrical grid capacity and investments to improve are inadequate to meet the “dreams”. The environmental life cycle of EV vehicles is not environmentally friendly; it is not even a close call. There is also growing resentment for how the nation is subsidizing the rich to purchase and operate their Teslas, while everyone else in the future will be relegated to riding the bus. A reckoning is coming, but perhaps not soon enough. The monstrous Liberal tax giveaways for battery plants may likely turn into a wasteful and hurtful boondoggle.
To meet international government mandates for electric vehicles, (EV,) a total of 388 new mines must be commissioned to produce the metals required for EV production, finds a new study released today by the Fraser Institute, an independent, non-partisan, Canadian public policy think-tank."The sheer scale of mining required to meet EV mandates raises serious questions about the timelines being imposed by governments," said Kenneth Green, a senior fellow at the Fraser Institute and author of Can Metal Mining Match the Speed of the Planned Electric Vehicle Transition?According to a federal mandate, all new passenger vehicles and light trucks sold in Canada must be zero-emission by 2035, and 50 percent of all new passenger cars and light trucks in the U.S. must be zero-emission by 2030.Again, to meet international EV mandates, a total of 388 new mines must be built to provide the necessary minerals including nickel and lithium. For context, as of 2021, only 270 metal mines of all kinds operated in the U.S., and only 70 operated in Canada. Moreover, due to the time required to locate, design, develop, and build mining and refining projects — including time related to regulatory requirements imposed by the government — it takes significant time to get mining projects up and running.For example, lithium production takes between six and nine years, and nickel production takes between 13 and 18 years. In light of these production timelines, the Canadian federal EV mandate, which is approximately 11 years away (2035,) seems unrealistic. “The significant risk of inadequate mineral and metal production threatens the viability and realism of government-mandated EV transition plans,” Green said.The governments of Canada, the United States, and many other nations are mandating a shift in vehicle technology, away from vehicles powered primarily by internal combustion engines and toward vehicles powered primarily with electricity stored on board in batteries.Canada's government has established policies designed to push automakers to achieve the government's goal of having 35 percent of all new medium and heavy-duty vehicle sales be electric by 2030, rising to 100 percent of all new medium and heavy-duty vehicle sales be electric by 2040.The US has set a target requiring 50 percent of all new passenger cars and light trucks sold in 2030 to be electric, or largely electric hybrid vehicles. These timelines are ambitious, calling for a major expansion of the prevalence of electric vehicles (EVs) in the major vehicle classes in a very short time — only 7 to 10 years.Barring breakthrough developments in battery technology, this massive and rapid expansion of battery-electric vehicle production will require a correspondingly massive and rapid expansion of the mining and refining of the metals and rare earth elements critical to battery-electric vehicle technology.The International Energy Agency (IEA) suggests that to meet international EV adoption pledges, the world will need 50 new lithium mines by 2030, along with 60 new nickel mines, and 17 new cobalt mines. The materials needed for cathode production will require 50 more new mines, and anode materials another 40. The battery cells will require 90 new mines, and EVs themselves another 81. In total, this adds up to 388 new mines. Historically, however, mining and refining facilities are both slow to develop and are highly uncertain endeavors plagued by regulatory uncertainty and environmental and regulatory barriers. Lithium production timelines, for example, are approximately 6 to 9 years, while production timelines (from production application) for nickel are approximately 13 to 18 years, according to the IEA.The establishment of aggressive and short-term EV adoption goals sets up a potential conflict with metal and mineral production, which is historically characterized by long lead times and long production timelines. The risk that mineral and mining production will fall short of projected demand is significant, and could greatly affect the success of various governments' plans for EV transition.In my review, the targets are not achievable, and neither are they wise policy. When real-world reality hits the environmental politicians in the face, they will just change the targets, and then self-righteously claim that they are on track for their new targets. The real answer is to get rid of these myth-makers. The electrical grid capacity and investments to improve are inadequate to meet the “dreams”. The environmental life cycle of EV vehicles is not environmentally friendly; it is not even a close call. There is also growing resentment for how the nation is subsidizing the rich to purchase and operate their Teslas, while everyone else in the future will be relegated to riding the bus. A reckoning is coming, but perhaps not soon enough. The monstrous Liberal tax giveaways for battery plants may likely turn into a wasteful and hurtful boondoggle.
