FORSETH: There will be no pre-election merger of right-wing parties in BC...

The Conservative Party of BC has been riding a wave of popularity in the polls and promises to run a full slate of 93 candidates in the BC election due Oct. 19, 2024.It is a resurrection. After decades of irrelevance — the Conservatives have not elected an MLA for many years — BC's oldest party is rising from the political ashes. Now it faces questions about merger or cooperation with the BC United Party, currently the official opposition to the governing NDP. It would be a re-uniting of sorts: Both current Conservative caucus members — Leader John Rustad and Bruce Banman — were once members of the BC Liberal Party, the precursor to the BC United Party. Both leaders, Kevin Falcon of BC United and John Rustad of the BC Conservatives have admitted to third-party communications going back some months. However, there will be no pre-election party merger. The Conservatives attempted to open discussions with BC United in December 2023, but Leader Kevin Falcon was not receptive at that time, and is reported to have said bluntly to 'F off.' His tune changed when the polling trends emerged with the Conservatives surging upward and the BC United slipping.Recent speculation about BC United and Conservative cooperation became a media story when Kevin Falcon said that emissaries from both parties were having discussions to see if they could find common ground, recognizing that the real opponent was the NDP administration.In a separate interview, Conservative Leader Rustad said that no official talks were going on while admitting that some individuals from the business community had reached out to BC United on behalf of the Conservatives. An actual merger is complicated and fraught with potential for error. And to be blunt, there's no time.A merger would require membership voting and a leadership race in addition to negotiations over basic policy declarations. Additionally, there would have to be a huge climb down by BC United Leader Kevin Falcon from his previous remarks about some Conservatives. He would also have to retract and apologize to John Rustad for giving him the boot from the BC United Party.The new political landscape is too raw for the parties to consider uniting. It would be a difficult process to pull off and maintain democratic transparency and legitimacy. Additionally, the policy perspectives of the two parties are quite different beyond both being traditionally “free enterprise” and anti-NDP. For Conservatives, a merger at this point would be seen as a dilution of Conservative values and would likely cause a membership revolt. These members now enjoy a resurrection in popularity and see no value in watering down their wine for a political maneuver. Consequently, based on what each leader has said, there will be no merger. Both parties are well-developed in their local processes of nominating candidates. That complicating situation is a huge problem which would mean eliminating candidates who’ve already won nomination elections.The pundits and political observers are musing about other scenarios, such as the case of a minority election result. BC could end up after election day, similar to the post-election problem that former premier Christy Clark faced. The NDP took over government with a voting support agreement with the three-member Green Party. (Similarly, Justin Trudeau hangs on to power only through the voting support of Jagmeet Singh and the federal NDP.)If vote splitting is a consequence of the election, the two political competitors might have to consider an arrangement like the confidence-and-supply agreement between the federal NDP and Liberals. The legacy media will keep stirring the pot about “deals” and “cooperation” to write stories. However, their sub-agenda has always been to keep Conservatives on the losing side. BC United might now muse about cooperation, but the Conservatives have no need to have that kind of speculation come from their ranks, as they are polling well and are still rising. Moreover, neither party leader is willing to consider a process that could result in their exit from leadership. It is more than just getting two personalities to reconcile. Membership considerations, especially among Conservatives mean that high-level talks might not carry along the grassroots membership.The BC Conservative name resonates with people, as it gives people a clear indication of who they are. Moreover, the current political track sees BC United fall from grace and repeat its history of the days of the BC Liberal Leader Ray Perrault, whom the media loved but the voters did not significantly support. The end of the free enterprise coalition is underway. Kevin Falcon said he would not axe the carbon tax but just not increase it. His treatment of Rustad and Banman had discouraged conservative-minded supporters. By May 2024 it is clear that the traditional voting coalition under the free enterprise banner has evaporated and Kevin Falcon and BC United are in free fall. Pundits were surprised when polling put the Conservatives at 25 percent, ahead of BC United at 19 percent. However, every poll since then has shown the Conservatives rising at the expense of both the governing NDP and the Official Opposition BC United. Incredibly, the most recent poll puts the Conservative Party of BC ahead of the governing NDP with just five months to go before British Columbia’s provincial election. (The rise of the federal Conservatives has helped, of course.) Pallas Data says 38 percent of decided voters supported the Conservatives, with the NDP one point behind at 37 percent. The Official Opposition BC United Party trailed at 13 percent. When undecided voters were factored in, the Conservative numbers were even better, placing first with 35 percent, ahead of the NDP at 33 percent and BC United at a mere 12 percent.After 70 years of B.C. politics dominated by a centre-right coalition party (first the Social Credit Party, then the B.C. Liberals,) the NDP took over. In May 2017 NDP John Horgan and Green Party Leader Andrew Weaver announced the Greens would support an NDP minority government in a confidence and supply agreement. Premier Horgan subsequently won a majority in 2020. Horgan retired and Cabinet Minister David Eby was acclaimed as Horgan's successor in October 2022.NDP Premier David Eby has not enjoyed the kind of voter support of his predecessor John Horgan, and the recent deficit budget didn't help. The BC NDP has political problems of its own making. BC United Leader Kevin Falcon is being labeled by some as just another old Liberal. Geographically, NDP support comes from Greater Vancouver and Vancouver Island, while the Conservatives lead throughout the rest of the province. BC is politically heading for change.

FORSETH: There will be no pre-election merger of right-wing parties in BC...

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