Is Putin winning his military invasion of Ukraine? So far, his original plot has not worked. However, is the united front of nations that originally came together in response to the Russian challenge, beginning to splinter? Do we see the first signs of what could eventually devolve into a Russian victory?.There has been tragic carnage and much of Ukraine is in ruin. Millions of people have become refugees and have lost everything. Since the Russian invasion on February 21, 2022, peoples and territories have been taken and then lost again and presently there seems to be a stalemate on the battlefield..Is the USA now starting to break its promises of military aid, as evidenced by the recent Congressional discord and failure to pass the required budget appropriations for Ukraine? Are cracks showing in the Western European alliance? Putin is likely betting that Ukraine lacks the extended resources and manpower to win a long war of attrition..Poland said it will stop sending new military equipment to Ukraine but will fulfill the existing contracts. Last week, a rightest party won the election in Slovakia after running on a pledge to end support for Ukraine. In Germany, the Alternative for Germany party, or AfD whose leaders nurture better relations with Russia, and is opposed to Ukraine aid, is surging in the polls. European news this week had stories of Western allies saying they had already given most of what they were prepared to give to Ukraine..Russia has worked overtime through social media and its subversive propaganda machine to try to politically split NATO nations over support for Ukraine. The Russian lying machine is so inflated, that this week, according to Reuters, President Putin on Thursday claimed Russia did not start the war, but launched a "special military operation" to try to stop it. He claimed Russia, the world's largest country by area, did not need to take territory from Ukraine. He said the conflict was not imperial or territorial but about the global order, and that the West had lost its hegemonic power and always needed an enemy and had lost touch with reality. Such is the voice of lying evil that Russians always hear, while Ukrainian cities burn..In the USA there is the recent development of a few Republican politicians saying that the border wall with Mexico, inflation and safer streets, are more important than what happens in Ukraine. The drama that played out among House Republicans over the past week has highlighted a sharp decline in the Republican Party’s willingness to back continued aid for Kyiv’s defense against Moscow..The Republican meltdown on Capitol Hill that toppled their House Speaker, highlighted a sharp decline in traditional support for sending aid to Ukraine..The shift is surprising for a party that has long defined itself by its belief in an assertive military that defends democracy around the world. Some hardline Republicans are now espousing isolationist views about Ukraine. They sound like the isolationists who opposed the USA from saving Europe in World War II..We recall the social split in the USA and echoes of it in Canada, when in a previous generation, American isolationists formed the 'America First Committee' with the specific policy of preventing the USA from getting involved in World War II..The AFC opposed President Roosevelt's Lend-Lease plan to send US war materials to Europe. After growing to more than 800,000 members, the AFC disbanded on December 11, 1941, after the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, when facts and real-life overwhelmed such political dissension. There is a familiar sound from this week's Republican contrarians in Congress..They argue sending tens of billions of dollars in support risks dragging the United States into a direct head-on war with Russia, while siphoning money away from domestic needs..Former President Donald Trump champions his own 'America First' foreign policy, but until recently most elected Republicans did not openly endorse it. However, the drama intensified as Republicans pushed Congress to the brink of shutdown while deposing their own Speaker of the House. The far right-wing message is gaining momentum among Republicans. The contingent of rabble-rousers has turned money for Ukraine into a bargaining chip for their alternate agendas..Nevertheless, the Russian invasion is of geopolitical significance and affects Canada and all freedom-loving democracies. Russia’s military failures in Ukraine have surely reduced the chances that China will invade Taiwan..Thanks to Ukrainian sacrifice, Russia’s capacity to project force into the Arctic has been set back by at least a decade. Moreover, Ukraine is fighting on behalf of all Western democracies, not just its own country. Ukraine is now defending NATO’s borders, western values, open commerce, and human rights. Ukraine is waging modern Europe’s defensive war and Europe owes Ukraine a lot more..The ideological and military contest will define in what world our children and grandchildren will live in, and the war cannot be frozen or postponed for diplomatic niceties. The ocean between North America and Europe does not provide protection. The world is too interconnected and engaged at multiple levels for the US and Canada not to fully support Ukraine’s defense. The war is our generation's defense of everything that we value..Aid from the West is not charity or just another nasty little war that drains, but rather is an investment in global security and international peace..Republican leadership admits they have a new faction of isolationism that questions the value of the current global order and the need to prevent a Russian victory. If they become dominant with their out-of-touch sense of the reality of the world, western society will pay a high price for years to come..One can only hope such narcissistic thinking does not take hold in Canada. The West is not arming Ukraine out of a sense of charitable sympathy. We are backing a fellow democracy because it is in our direct survival interest to do so. If we fail to help Ukraine stop Russia in its evil quest, there is every reason to believe Russia and China will both be emboldened..Capacity creates its own demand and the ability of belligerence to continue breeds more tragedy.
