This article, the third in a series written for the Western Standard on post-2020 lockdown Canadian health statistics, is intended to alleviate excessive concerns of those who believe the very worst is true, while also still demonstrating to everyone else that the interventions backfired.The growing public awareness that the Biden administration used 'X' (then known as Twitter) to effectively censor reporting of the merit and effectiveness of COVID-19 countermeasures, has resulted in many on social media concluding that the sky is falling. However, given Trudeau’s perceived efforts to censor free speech, this is also a growing concern in Canada.My hope here is to allay the most alarmist beliefs. Nevertheless, some Canadians continue to believe the many public health interventions were actually effective in limiting human misery and death associated with the spread of SARS-CoV-2. They also need to know that even the best intentions can, and in this case did, backfire. The other side aren't all wrong.When I wrote The 2020 lockdowns and the rise of fatalities among young Canadians and Canadian pathologists are stumped by explosive growth in deaths from unknown causes, my hopes were that my preliminary efforts would attract others with data analytics skills to reach out to lend a hand in my efforts to better inform Canadians.Figures 1 and 2 compare Statistics Canada data on age-standardized total fatalities, together with all-cause and COVID mortality rates per 100,000 for both the under and over 65 years of age demographics in Canada, respectively, extending from 2001 to 2022.Likewise, both figures show the five-year (2015 to 2019) baseline or average mortality rate as the horizontal line extending from 2019 to 2022 for both age demographics to aid in assessing deviation from both the short term and the 21-year trend.What both figures show is the good news that each age demographic shows a significant decline in all-cause mortality (ACM) from 2001 that ends around 2013 for the under 65-year-old demographic and in 2019 for the over 65-year-old demographic.Clearly the quality of life of Canadians was improving prior to the 2013 - 2019 period.Likewise, this data suggests that fundamental changes in the quality of life for Canadians occurred within this interval of time that arrested this positive trend. The fact that this positive downward trend began to level out before the 2020 lockdown suggests more than one thing was at work, however..Now, pay attention to how the all-cause mortality and COVID-19 mortality rates compare to the five-year average for both age demographics after 2020. While the over-65-year-old demographic shows very little deviation in 2020 and 2021 relative to its five-year average prior to 2020, the under-65-year-old demographic rises above its five-year average in 2020, 2021 and 2022.The latter is a confirmation of my own analysis in my Western Standard article The 2020 lockdowns and the rise of fatalities among young Canadians.However, please note that the post-2020 rise in all-cause mortality rate for the under-65-year-old demographic is not higher than that last observed in Canada prior to 2008. I believe that this fact provides useful perspective.The ACM and COVID mortality rates post-2020 are represented in Table 1 relative to the age specific 5-year-averages for both demographics. .What I find most peculiar about Figures 1 and 2 is the inverse relationship seen between COVID-19 mortality age susceptibility versus ACM all cause mortality after 2020. The younger age demographic in Canada experienced the highest rise in all-cause mortality rate post 2020 — even though it had the lowest susceptibility to COVID-19 mortality!In my view, the fact that more younger people started dying after 2020 suggests that something happened that wasn't anticipated and the most significant difference between life before 2020 and the few years after 2020, was the myriad of public interventions invoked over the 2020-to-2022-time frame.In other words, the lockdown strategy, conceived no doubt with the best of intentions, backfired on the government and public sector by-and-large — with measurable results.For those who would argue that overall all-cause mortality and COVID-19 mortality rates for the over-65-year-old demographic would have been higher if it had not been for the lockdowns and interventions, I would direct them to Table 1. Table 1 for the older demographic shows the highest all-cause mortality and COVID fatality rates occurred in 2022.I would like to thank Gail Spence for compiling the statistics used in this analysis. Gail has a master’s in economics and an interest in the public discussion around mortality statistics in relation to COVID and the public health interventions of Canadian governments.
This article, the third in a series written for the Western Standard on post-2020 lockdown Canadian health statistics, is intended to alleviate excessive concerns of those who believe the very worst is true, while also still demonstrating to everyone else that the interventions backfired.The growing public awareness that the Biden administration used 'X' (then known as Twitter) to effectively censor reporting of the merit and effectiveness of COVID-19 countermeasures, has resulted in many on social media concluding that the sky is falling. However, given Trudeau’s perceived efforts to censor free speech, this is also a growing concern in Canada.My hope here is to allay the most alarmist beliefs. Nevertheless, some Canadians continue to believe the many public health interventions were actually effective in limiting human misery and death associated with the spread of SARS-CoV-2. They also need to know that even the best intentions can, and in this case did, backfire. The other side aren't all wrong.When I wrote The 2020 lockdowns and the rise of fatalities among young Canadians and Canadian pathologists are stumped by explosive growth in deaths from unknown causes, my hopes were that my preliminary efforts would attract others with data analytics skills to reach out to lend a hand in my efforts to better inform Canadians.Figures 1 and 2 compare Statistics Canada data on age-standardized total fatalities, together with all-cause and COVID mortality rates per 100,000 for both the under and over 65 years of age demographics in Canada, respectively, extending from 2001 to 2022.Likewise, both figures show the five-year (2015 to 2019) baseline or average mortality rate as the horizontal line extending from 2019 to 2022 for both age demographics to aid in assessing deviation from both the short term and the 21-year trend.What both figures show is the good news that each age demographic shows a significant decline in all-cause mortality (ACM) from 2001 that ends around 2013 for the under 65-year-old demographic and in 2019 for the over 65-year-old demographic.Clearly the quality of life of Canadians was improving prior to the 2013 - 2019 period.Likewise, this data suggests that fundamental changes in the quality of life for Canadians occurred within this interval of time that arrested this positive trend. The fact that this positive downward trend began to level out before the 2020 lockdown suggests more than one thing was at work, however..Now, pay attention to how the all-cause mortality and COVID-19 mortality rates compare to the five-year average for both age demographics after 2020. While the over-65-year-old demographic shows very little deviation in 2020 and 2021 relative to its five-year average prior to 2020, the under-65-year-old demographic rises above its five-year average in 2020, 2021 and 2022.The latter is a confirmation of my own analysis in my Western Standard article The 2020 lockdowns and the rise of fatalities among young Canadians.However, please note that the post-2020 rise in all-cause mortality rate for the under-65-year-old demographic is not higher than that last observed in Canada prior to 2008. I believe that this fact provides useful perspective.The ACM and COVID mortality rates post-2020 are represented in Table 1 relative to the age specific 5-year-averages for both demographics. .What I find most peculiar about Figures 1 and 2 is the inverse relationship seen between COVID-19 mortality age susceptibility versus ACM all cause mortality after 2020. The younger age demographic in Canada experienced the highest rise in all-cause mortality rate post 2020 — even though it had the lowest susceptibility to COVID-19 mortality!In my view, the fact that more younger people started dying after 2020 suggests that something happened that wasn't anticipated and the most significant difference between life before 2020 and the few years after 2020, was the myriad of public interventions invoked over the 2020-to-2022-time frame.In other words, the lockdown strategy, conceived no doubt with the best of intentions, backfired on the government and public sector by-and-large — with measurable results.For those who would argue that overall all-cause mortality and COVID-19 mortality rates for the over-65-year-old demographic would have been higher if it had not been for the lockdowns and interventions, I would direct them to Table 1. Table 1 for the older demographic shows the highest all-cause mortality and COVID fatality rates occurred in 2022.I would like to thank Gail Spence for compiling the statistics used in this analysis. Gail has a master’s in economics and an interest in the public discussion around mortality statistics in relation to COVID and the public health interventions of Canadian governments.
