We continuously hear from political and media activists that we're experiencing a great climate disruption and the Earth is facing a so-called 'Sixth Mass Extinction event' as a result of our use of hydrocarbons.
I will show a contrarian perspective, which used to be mainstream. As to whether climatic changes measured in the 20th century constitute a true state of emergency warranting a totalitarian lockdown on society, you be the judge.
Approximately 8,000 years ago, the Sahara Desert was a lush green grassland with extensive lakes and rivers. (This is not disputed.) Then gradually, this region transitioned to the arid desert that it is today. Why did this happen and what can we take from this knowledge and apply to our current dilemma on matters relating to climate hysteria?
The desertification of Northern Africa was part of a global phenomenon that paleoclimatologists refer to as the transition into a neoglacial phase. Immediately prior to the transition to the current neoglacial phase, the state of the global climate system was referred to as the Holocene Climate Optimum (HCO) or the Holocene Thermal Maximum.
Isn't it intriguing that classical climatology refers to a warmer climate as 'optimal?'
Javier Vino's illustration highlights some of the defining characteristics of this transition to include the emergence of the major global deserts along the Horse Latitudes (i.e. the Sahara, middle eastern and Gobi deserts,) the rapid cooling of Greenland and the migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) towards the Southern Hemisphere, just to name a few notable effects.
In my previous article titled Tired of the Fear Mongering, I introduced the topic of the ITCZ as a critical climate indicator and showed the arrival of the tropical summer monsoon in the tropics coincides with its migration towards whichever hemisphere is warming relative to the other hemisphere.
I demonstrated that this occurs during both the Seasonal Cycle and the 60-year solar cycle.
Javier Vino's illustration shows that the ITCZ was much higher in the northern hemisphere during the Holocene Climate Optimum than today, because the higher latitudes of the northern hemisphere were themselves four to eight degrees centigrade warmer than at present.
Lasher et al's reconstruction of the changes in air temperatures in northwestern Greenland 8,000 years ago, shows at the height of the Holocene Climate Optimum, this region was 4 to 6 degrees Centigrade warmer than today. Lasher et al's study demonstrates that a gradual cooling of the current neoglacial phase of the Holocene Interglacial has been underway for thousands of years.
With this cooling, Greenland's icefields returned and the ITCZ began is millennial migration towards the Southern Hemisphere. It is generally accepted this transition from the Holocene Climate Optimum to the current neoglacial phase is due to changes in the Earth's orbit caused by larger-scale cyclical changes in the local gravitational environment of the solar system, which collectively are called the Milankovitch Cycles.
One of the best representations of the migrations of the ITCZ over the entire course of the Holocene Interglacial is published by Tapio Schnieder et al in the work titled Migrations and Dynamics of the Intertropical Convergence Zone.
The x-axis is in thousands of years before present (i.e. kyr BP) and the y-axis include metrics specific to the Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall, the temperature difference between hemispheres and a relative scale for precipitation in either hemisphere.
I have taken the liberty of adding acronyms for the approximate historical timing of the Holocene Climate Optimum, the Roman Warm Period (RWP) and the Medieval Warm Period (MWP).
The rise to the peak of the Holocene Climate Optimum coincides with the exit from the last glacial maximum, also called the Eemian Ice Age. As shown, this resulted in warming and increased precipitation across the Northern Hemisphere relative to the Southern Hemisphere. Conversely, the current neoglacial phase of the Holocene Interglacial is resulting in the reversal of all those major climatic features, as once again Earth is moving towards the next glacial maximum.
By including the acronyms for the RWP and the MWP at 1,000 and 2,200 years before present, I am intentionally highlighting evidence I believe places these historical periods as the equivalent of what is known in paleoclimatology as Interstadial events.
Interstadial events commonly occur during neoglacials and are defined by sudden migrations of the ITCZ towards the northern hemisphere, as the latter rapidly warms relative to the southern hemisphere. These brief excursions from the cooling trend of the neoglacial commonly last for a few centuries before returning to the neoglacial trend.
Conversely, sudden displacements of the ITCZ towards the southern hemisphere are called Stadials and the Little Ice Age that occurred prior to the Current Warm Period (CWP) and after the Mediaeval Warm Period is a prime example.
Finally, in my last article titled Tired of the Media Fear Mongering I featured additional data from Tapio Schnieder et al, which shows that the migrations of the ITCZ in the 20th century does not support the argument that our use of hydrocarbons is resulting in a Great Climate Disruption. Instead, what was observed is two periods of rapid warming of the Northern Hemisphere relative to the Southern Hemisphere in the 20th century caused the ITCZ to oscillate between the peak warming periods of the 1940s and 2000s.
Those who argue the CWP is exceptional and the measured changes in climate in the 20th century represents an existential threat, do so by ignoring the immense body of evidence specific to the neoglacial record. The neoglacial backdrop to the CWP shows large scale desertification of the Northern Hemisphere developed as it cools relative to the HCO and as the ITCZ migrates towards the Southern Hemisphere.
The evidence is clear, in our climate system is advancing towards the Holocene Ice Age. The questions that remain unanswered are how long will the Current Warm Period last before returning to the neoglacial trend and how will humanity adapt in view of the approaching Holocene Ice Age?
And a Sixth Great Extinction? If it happens, blame the natural warming-cooling cycles.
Don should read HOW THE WORLD REALLY WORKS by Manitoba Professor Vaclav Smil, UNSETTLED by Steve Koonin, the former Under Secretary for Science in the Department of Energy of the first Obama administration, and anything by Bjorn Lonborg, Matt Ridley, or Patrick Moore.
BCs Gas Company Fortis just redesigned their Statements. Removing the Monthly Average Temps . . . which for much of last year showed month to month Cooling from the Previous Year. Can't have those infadel customers finding the truth !
Javier Vinós has spent decades researching neurobiology and cancer at the Howard Hughes Medical Institute, the University of California, UK's Medical Research Council, and the Spanish Scientific Research Council. His scientific publications have been cited over 1,200 times by his peers. In 2015 concerns over the effects of the indisputable climate change that is taking place led him to study climate science.
So he's not a climate scientist. He wrote book. Anyone can write a book.
Very few people are Don . . . James Hansen is an Astronomer . . . Al Gore is a failed Divinity School Dropout . . . Bill Nye is a mechanical Engineer . . . many Klimate Experts are Physicists or Paleoecologists who use fossils, spores, pollen, and other information to study the ecologies and climates of the past.
Actual Klimate Science is a very new branch of studies.
Obviously a "Scientist" can also pursue & study other venues . . .
Most climate scientists are glorified computer programmers.
Don, it is common knowledge in classical climatology the facts I discuss in this article.
Javier Vinos`s book is a treasure trove of literature thousands of publications on natural climate change.
Worth the read.
Follow the money. There's no money in denying climate change
"Climate change" isn't science, it's a pretext.
CO2 is a trace gas, coming in at a whopping 0.04% of the atmosphere. It does not control the climate. This is all about control - communism in other words.
Bad Argument/Myth #9: CO2 only makes a small portion of the atmosphere.
1) He wasn't driving drunk, he just had a trace of blood alcohol; 0.08%.
2) Don't worry about your iron deficiency, iron is only 4.4 ppm of your body’s atoms.
3) Ireland isn't important; it's only.066%) of the world population.
4)That ibuprofen pill can't do you any good; it's only 3 ppm of your body weight
5)The Earth is insignificant, it's only 3 ppm of the mass of the solar system.
6) Your children can drink that water, it only contains a trace of arsenic (0.01 ppm is the WHO and US EPA limit).
We know that every single molecule of CO2 is surrounded by 2500 molecules that are NOT CO2 and therefore any theoretical blanket built from CO2 fibers that supposedly is surrounding the Earth is practically made of NOTHING.
It’s estimated that in this decade, over 12 million tons of lithium ion batteries will go offline from EVs alone. Lithium cathodes from degraded batteries cannot be used for new batteries so the current method of disposal involves shredding and burning the batteries to recover other minerals in the batteries including nickel, cobalt and manganese. There has been little effort to quantify the amount of energy needed to reprocess these batteries or how many of them end up in landfills worldwide. Somebody call Greenpeace.
Environmentalists also seem to believe that an EV is “zero-emission” and somehow magically creates its energy. In fact, the energy comes from the electric grid, which is powered by a mix of natural gas, coal, and hydroelectric — the very energy sources those same greenies work tirelessly to eliminate. In their magical thinking, windmills and solar panels will power the grid, which will power their Priuses. So the same groups who wrecked the logging industry in the Pacific Northwest to protect the spotted owl are now onboard with wind farms killing millions of birds, including endangered species, and solar panels that produce vast quantities of hazardous waste.
All of this speculative disruption is based on the premise that carbon dioxide from auto emissions is a hazardous chemical that will literally destroy the environment — Sunspots determine the climate
We know that all the knowledge about the physical world comes from experiments that can be validated and not from calculations that cannot be validated. And yet, everything about man-made global warming is about calculations and NOTHING about measurements.
Nice to see some common sense and actual science applied to the climate change scam
How are we going to wake up the masses to this. Our youth are convinced that manmade climate change is real. While we need to consume less, pollute less, etc. the world has the technology so that people do not need to starve, they can drink clean water.
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