FOURNIER: Ottawa’s methane mandate is an economic disaster in the making

Dr. Joseph Fournier is a Senior Fellow at the Frontier Centre for Public Policy.Canada’s largest oil and gas producer, Canadian Natural Resources Ltd., has made its position clear: it will not commit $10 billion to $15 billion in new spending to expand production until Ottawa provides certainty on its expanding methane and carbon pricing regulations.This is a rational response to a policy environment where the rules keep shifting, and the costs keep rising. Regulatory uncertainty is now the single largest barrier to upstream spending in Alberta, freezing projects that would otherwise move ahead.Ottawa is demanding that Alberta’s oil and gas industry cut methane emissions even further to bring its regulations closer to the climate goals promoted by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the methane regulations adopted by the European Union. Its latest mandate calls for a 75% reduction from 2012 levels by 2030.But what will these increasingly expensive regulations accomplish?My most recent research, soon to be published, evaluates the climatic impact of Ottawa’s new methane reduction mandate. It shows that eliminating Alberta’s upstream oil and gas methane emissions would change global temperatures too little to measure.Using methods developed by Princeton University’s William Happer and William van Wijngaarden, I estimate that eliminating roughly one million tonnes of methane emissions annually would produce approximately −0.00035 °C of theoretical cooling on a global average basis.Modern climate instruments have detection limits around 0.1 °C. In other words, the cooling Ottawa expects from these expanded regulations is physically impossible to measure..Yet Ottawa’s final regulatory assessment projects $36.3 billion in avoided climate damages between 2028 and 2040. It estimates another $2.3 billion in benefits from conserved natural gas and improved air quality, against $14.6 billion in compliance costs.How does Ottawa justify billions in compliance costs when the resulting temperature reduction is so small that modern instruments cannot detect it?The answer lies in how the federal government calculates the social cost of greenhouse gases, including methane. Rather than measuring the actual cooling methane reductions produce, Ottawa uses computer models to estimate the economic damage those reductions might prevent and assigns a dollar value to those theoretical benefits.Those calculations depend on assumptions about future warming, climate sensitivity, and the economic consequences of changes in global temperatures.Ottawa is using these theoretical benefits to justify billions in real compliance costs without demonstrating that the projected climate gains warrant the expense.The problem is that these models rely on high-end (alarmist) climate scenarios, including RCP8.5 and SSP5-8.5, which have been challenged as implausible.These models also place overwhelming emphasis on human influence in explaining long-term climate change. The paleoclimate record tells us that climate has always changed, long before industrial methane emissions became a concern. Treating climate change as though it were exclusively anthropogenic global warming is a brave but low-merit assumption..These assumptions exaggerate the benefits of methane reductions, making the regulations appear more economically defensible than they are.This is the core problem. Ottawa is imposing extreme compliance costs on Alberta’s oil and gas industry for a theoretical cooling signal that cannot be measured, while assigning billions in benefits to that undetectable change.Ottawa treats oil and gas methane as a controllable climate lever while ignoring another significant source: Alberta’s immense boreal forest wetlands.Methane released from wetlands enters the same atmosphere as methane released from oil wells. Yet federal regulations focus on reducing industrial emissions without presenting the natural methane contribution alongside the regulated sector’s totals.If Alberta’s oil and gas industry cuts methane emissions by 0.75 million tonnes while natural methane emissions rise by an equivalent amount, the net reduction in atmospheric methane emissions would be zero.Why should Alberta’s producers bear billions in compliance costs without a full accounting of the methane emissions occurring across the province?The policy recommendations are straightforward and should be adopted immediately.First, count wetland methane emissions alongside emissions from oil wells. Alberta should publish peatland methane emissions alongside the Alberta Energy Regulator’s oil and gas totals every year.Second, stop selling an immeasurable temperature reduction.State the physics plainly: a one-million-tonne reduction in CH₄ emissions yields only about −0.00035 °C of theoretical cooling, which is too small for modern instruments to measure.Ottawa should not present billions of dollars in modelled climate benefits as though they were measurable reductions in global temperatures.Third, scrap extreme climate scenarios in methane regulatory impact assessments. Recalculate the costs and benefits of the 2018 methane regulations and the enhanced 2025 rules using less alarmist climate assumptions. Report the estimated temperature reductions alongside the calculated climate benefits so Canadians can see how little theoretical cooling justifies these costs.Alberta’s oil and gas producers must make spending decisions while Ottawa keeps expanding regulations, imposing billions in compliance costs for climate benefits that exist primarily in computer models.Ottawa’s methane plan is not a climate plan.It is a cost-imposition plan built on questionable climate assumptions, immeasurable temperature benefits, and a blind spot the size of Alberta’s boreal forest.Alberta should not be forced to offset Mother Nature.Dr. Joseph Fournier is a Senior Fellow at the Frontier Centre for Public Policy. An expert in economic analysis and structural policy, he focuses his research on productivity, regional migration, and sustainable economic renewal in Canada.

FOURNIER: Ottawa’s methane mandate is an economic disaster in the making

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