FOURNIER: Wind and solar may work one day, but they're not yet ready for extreme weather

We all remember the near miss Alberta had earlier this year, experienced from January 11 to the morning of the 14 as a monster Arctic front moved across Western Canada and the Northwestern US. The wind didn't blow, the sun didn't shine and in Alberta, the heat and the lights nearly went off. It was a significant failure-moment for the renewable energy sources in which Alberta has invested so much over the last decade.Has it ever occurred to you what the lobby had to say that regards renewables — wind and solar — as the only way forward?In the Edmonton Journal, (February 1) Scott MacDougall, Director of Pembina's electricity program, attempted some damage control. In an article entitled How Alberta can prevent another grid alert, he argued that first, "thanks to industry and households quickly reducing demand, Alberta returned to exporting electricity to BC and Montana within two hours."All's well that ends well, then. For the future, we need to "prioritize interties and storage, two simple actions Alberta could take to improve grid reliability." And no surprise, "renewable could help by providing additional sources of energy and support grid reliability."If that sounds like recommending the hair of the dog, do recall that Pembina took credit for Rachel Notley's decision to break Alberta`s affordable power purchase agreements back in 2015 and to mandate the 30% wind and solar targets for the province.And by the way, when Scott scolded the provincial government for being a source of energy disinformation and for not working more closely with the federal Liberal government to create a grid that is reliable, affordable and clean, he also failed to acknowledge that the federal Liberals have funded Pembina's wind and solar-focused public relations activities to the tune of $5.6 million since 2019.This, then, is a rebuttal to Scott's Journal article.First though, before I answer Scott MacDougall's claim that expanded provincial interties and utility-scale energy storage systems would give Alberta an affordable, reliable grid, let's revisit that brutal weekend.Figure 1 is Alberta Electric System Operator (AESO) data from January, which shows we lost approximately 3,500 MW of wind plus solar power generation from Thursday the 10 to Sunday the 14 as the Arctic low-pressure system moved into the region. That is enough power for more than a million homes!As well, we see that approximately the same amount of wind and solar power generation returned on Monday. .Note that our wind and sunshine resources were absent for around 120 hours. Simple math shows that 120 hours at 3,500 MW is 420,000 MWh (420 GWh) of utility-scale battery storage.Given Tesla's MegaPack is the only large manufacturer of utility scale energy storage units, this serves as a starting point to consider the capital costs to build that amount of storage infrastructure.For such a large order, the latest price is $375,000 CDN per MWh of storage or more than $157.5 billion. In context, the capital cost of 3,500 MW of wind and solar is in the order of $7 billion.Note that only 10 GWh of Tesla MegaPack storage systems have been deployed worldwide as of 2024, whereas Alberta would need 420 GWh (42x more than the entire world) to cover a winter storm such as January 10 to 14. Obviously, Tesla's MegaPack is not a long duration energy storage (LDES) technology; it is intended to be cycled daily as a load shifting storage unit to be profitable.Frankly, LDES technologies are largely still pre-commercial concepts. Note that all energy storage concept’s function based on buy low and sell high — or arbitrage.Thus, their profitability is dependent on a highly unstable power pool price. In other words, if supply of baseload and dispatchable power reserves are secure, energy storage concepts will go bankrupt. Therefore, it is seriously disingenuous of Pembina to suggest that energy storage technologies will save Albertans from future grid alerts.Meanwhile, Pembina continues to claim that expanding provincial inter-tie connections will be a boon for electricity exports.This claim ignores three important facts.The first is that independent power producers do not pay for the bulk of our transmission and distribution (T&D) infrastructure, the retail consumer does. Simply look at your average power bill and you will see that the costs for T&D is already 50% of your monthly cost.The 2020 AESO market report shows that the annualized growth rate of T&D costs has increased by upwards of 27% and this has impacted our heavy industrial sector the hardest.In my Western Standard article titled There is nothing green about Alberta`s overbuilt transmission system highlighted that T&D infrastructure dominated by intermittent power has to charge out at a higher rate per MWh because on average it operates at lower capacity than T&D infrastructure dominated by baseload power.Right now, wind and solar facilities in southern Alberta require massive T&D infrastructure to connect to consumers in central and northern Alberta.Thus, further expanding T&D to accommodate more wind and solar will accelerate energy inflation for Albertan retail consumers.Second point that Pembina ignores. When Alberta uses its inter-ties for export purposes of late, it is usually because intermittent power production is occurring during periods of lower demand and pool prices are often as low as $20 per MWh. Note that Alberta's regulated rate option varies between $170 to $195 per MWh.On the other hand, when wind and solar resources plummet during periods of extreme demand, such as peak summer heat or intense winter storms, power pool rates Albertans pay to import power through its inter-ties are often in the $800 to $1,000 per MWh range.Thus, Albertans can expect to sell low and buy high with continued expansion of inter-ties and intermittent power capacity. While this may be great business for electricity brokers, it's terrible for Albertan retail consumers.Third, inter-ties do not provide firm capacity.Case in point was seen January 14, when Alberta's pool price was still $800 to $1,000 per MWh and temperatures were -30 C, Alberta was exporting to BC and the US Northwest power pool.The same Arctic system that was hammering Western Canada was causing massive power outages in the US Northwest. Due to BC Hydro's current operating deficit due to the snowpack drought in the Rockies, it was still profitable to be selling our extremely tight supply into this higher priced market.Thus, our BC inter-tie, while offering relief to BC and the US Northwest, was also exacerbating the near blackout conditions our market had endured for the previous 100 hours.Finally, I advocate that the path to a low emission intensity grid that is both stable and affordable is to build combined cycle gas turbines and nuclear power plants close to centers of high demand. The closer in proximity that generation is to retail consumers, the lower the T&D bill will be for retail consumers.

FOURNIER: Wind and solar may work one day, but they're not yet ready for extreme weather

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