Canada has seen sovereignty referendums in the past — in Quebec in 1980, and again in 1995 — but has never had two sovereignty referendums going on at the same time. I’m not sure that any country has ever faced such a thing, but that’s exactly what might be headed our way. After years of laying low, support for the PQ in Quebec is surging, and they are expected to return to power in 2026. If that happens, they have already promised to hold a referendum that could come as early as 2027.It is particularly interesting that support for Quebec independence is becoming increasingly popular with young Quebecers..GIESBRECHT: How to fix CBC? Hire Ezra Levant.Meanwhile, in Alberta, a referendum on sovereignty seems increasingly likely. Exactly when it will be held is uncertain, as various court challenges about the wording of the question, and indigenous claims, could delay the referendum by a year or so.But there are highly committed sovereigntists in both provinces, and it is quite possible that Canada will be in the unique position of hosting two sovereignty campaigns within its borders at the same time.Navigating its way through emotionally fraught campaigns simultaneously will be difficult enough for the already stressed Carney government. But what could make things close to impossible for Carney is that most of the important goals of the Quebec sovereigntists appear to be at cross purposes with the goals of the Alberta sovereigntists — pipelines, net zero, the equalization formula, and different views about immigration being the obvious examples. How can he satisfy two groups with competing visions?On immigration, Quebec’s main concern is to bring in French speakers. Alberta’s are much more in line with Trump’s — “borders matter” — more control, and an absolute “No” to uncontrolled mass immigration. .So, on immigration it is just a matter of policy differences between the two provinces. Not so on the climate change/fossil fuel and equalization issues. There, the views are exactly opposite. Here, for example, is what Emile Simard, leader of the PQ’s youth wing has to say about both climate change and Alberta’s claim that Quebec unfairly benefits from the equalization formula at Alberta’s expense.“It doesn't make sense that as Quebecers we contribute several billion dollars every year through our taxes, and then we're going to invest massively in Alberta's fossil fuels," he said.To most Albertans, Simard’s claim that it is Quebec that is subsidizing Alberta is preposterous. The dominant belief in Alberta is that the equalization formula is unfair, and basically makes Alberta pay for Quebec’s social programs..MCMILLAN: To hell with the east, we want to be released.But Quebecers see things differently. Most are not prepared to even consider the idea of making major changes to the equalization system. In the blunt words of Quebec Premier Legault, the current equalization system is part of the original deal made to keep Quebec in Confederation, and Quebec will fight to keep it exactly as it is.As for Alberta’s campaign for a pipeline to the east, there appears to be a strong consensus in Quebec that they will not let this happen. The anti-fossil fuel bias in Quebec is very high. Albertans tend to think of Steven Guibeault as a radical on the subject of fossil fuels, but that is not the way he is seen in Quebec.In fact, in Quebec, Guibeault’s extreme bias against fossil fuels is considered quite normal. Not only is there a common view there that oil is “dirty” but there is a belief that the oil industry will become almost irrelevant soon. Guibeault believes that “peak oil” will occur by 2028, and thereafter the oil industry will soon disappear. His opinion seems to be shared by most Quebecers. .To say that most Albertans don’t share that view is an understatement. In Alberta there is a strong consensus that oil will be with us for many years yet, and the oil industry should not be held back by bad government policy. To complicate matters even more, Quebec sovereigntists are dismissive- even contemptuous- about the very idea of Alberta sovereignty. Here’s how Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet (rather rudely) put it:“The first idea is to define oneself as a nation,” he told reporters when asked if he had tips for his western confrères. “Therefore it requires a culture of their own. And I am not certain that oil and gas qualify to define a culture.”.LYTLE: Do we really want to double oil production?.All in all, it seems likely that running two referendums simultaneously, given the huge gap that exists between how differently Quebec and Alberta see things, would be a major challenge for the Carney Liberals. It also seems certain that the rhetoric on these divisive differences between Quebec and Alberta is bound to become increasingly heated as the campaigns progress.Did Carney know that he was walking into a hornet’s nest like this when he signed on to lead a Liberal Party that had spent the last ten years focussed on esoteric issues, like climate and gender, instead of basic economics?In short, pulling some kind of a rabbit out of a hat and keeping two sides of a country that see things so radically differently happy might prove to be an impossible job.There is a theory that the Liberals expected to lose the 2024 election whey they dumped Trudeau and brought in Carney. They were far behind in the polls, and their intention was to limit their losses, sit on the opposition benches for a term, and then get back in, after the Conservatives had made all of the unpopular decisions needed to get the economy back in order..In retrospect, letting the Conservatives assume power for a term might have blunted the Alberta sovereignty movement, and let the Liberals play the “good guys” in Quebec’s sovereignty fight.But, because of the exceedingly strange interplay between the “Trump” factor, and the Liberals’ newfound Canadian “patriotism” — from “post national, no core identity genocidal” to Captain Canada in a trice - they must have been amazed to find themselves back in the driver’s seat after misgoverning for a decade.Instead, all it took was to install a new leader who actually acted like an adult, and Canadians would forget about the last ten years, and reelect them. Suddenly, their future looked bright again!But did the Liberals outsmart themselves? Did they unwittingly put themselves in the position of being in charge, just when the wheels started to fall off the Canadian bus?.STEPHAN: Alberta does not need a progressive justice system.Maybe things will all work out. Prime Minister Carney is a very smart man. He talks a great game, and is able to say the right things - even if he says different things to different sides of the country.Perhaps he can find a solution where we can have both pipelines, and no pipelines at the same time; where Quebec gets its equalization money, but not from the west; and where we can have both zero emissions and a thriving economy at the same time. Perhaps all of those things will happen, and both referendums will fizzle.But, if that magic doesn’t come together, Canada is in for a wild ride over the next decade. And Trump, or whoever is president to the south of us by then, will be happy to pick up the pieces. The pieces they want, that is.
