GIESBRECHT: Be careful what you wish for

“The expression "be careful what you wish for" originated in Aesop's Fables, a collection of morality tales written by a former Greek slave in the late to mid-6th century BC. The expression is a warning to think before making a wish, as what you ask for may not be good for you, or may come in greater measure than you expect.”Trudeau resigned. We will have an election, probably in spring. If an election was held today the polls say the Conservatives would win a massive majority. This is very good news for Conservatives.But those same polls also say that the sovereigntist Bloc Quebecois (BQ) would form the official opposition.Is this good news for Conservatives? Or for any Canadians who want a Canada that functions, and stays together?The BQ only runs candidates in Quebec, because it is mainly interested in Quebec-only issues. Most importantly, it is dedicated to Quebec sovereignty. That is the reasons why the party exists.So, perhaps it might be useful to imagine what the future might look like if a spring election unfolds the way current polls suggest.Maybe a good place to start would be to take a look back at the only other time in Canadian history when the BQ formed the official opposition. That was in 1993, when the Liberals won a huge majority, and the Conservatives were reduced to two seats. The BQ became the official opposition .Lucien Bouchard carefully explained his party’s strategy in the video above. It was to work with his Quebec counterparts to pave the way for the sovereignty referendum.And the next few years of Canadian politics consisted of exactly that — and not much else — high anxiety nail-biting, while we awaited the second referendum results in 1995, from which we barely escaped from what would have been a very ugly divorce. Canada barely survived.The 1995 referendum was a down and dirty street fight that included the use of dirty tricks by both sides.Bribing Quebecers was one of them. But that has always been an essential part of the Liberals' playbook. Since 1867 the Liberals have been in power for about two thirds of the time. In fact, the Conservatives usually win elections only when the Liberals are temporarily in disarray, as a result of one scandal or another. The rule of the Conservatives usually only lasts until the Liberals put themselves back together.The Liberal formula is simple — bribe Quebec, and convince enough Laurentian voters that this is necessary for national cohesion purposes. As for those west of Ontario, their unwritten taunt to Conservatives is “You take the West, we’ll take the rest”.Another one of the dirty tricks used by the federal government during the referendum years was the fact that Quebec’s indigenous politicians could be bought. And they were. The threat hanging over the heads of the separatists was that indigenous groups might insist on remaining in Canada — thus severing huge chunks of territory from Quebec. The tiny “nation” of Quebec remaining would basically consist of what was once called “Lower Canada”.The feds are alleged to have used this “dirty trick” very effectively by courting Quebec’s northern Indians, and basically bribing them to stay with Canada. However, indigenous leaders in other parts of Canada wanted those goodies too, and that has contributed mightily to the situation we have today, where indigenous subsidization and payouts have become so massive that they have thoroughly destabilized Canada’s shaky economy.The bribing of northern Quebec Indians is also just the continuation of a pattern that has existed since Confederation. Indigenous dependency, and the grievance narrative that inevitably comes with it, had already set in by that time. The loss of the buffalo had left the Plains Indians destitute, and they began to depend on the white man for their survival. That began the pattern of dependency that has only worsened since then. Efforts to end dependency, such as introducing Indians to farming, had all failed. Ottawa had no idea what to do about the problem. Its answer was to give up, and just feed that dependency by sending money.The unwritten message to the chiefs was “We’ll keep sending checks as long as you keep your people on the reserve, and don’t cause too much trouble.” That hopeless policy has been greatly accelerated after Trudeau’s 2015 win, and the massive indigenous spending since then that has actually exacerbated the problem. But it is just part of the same insane formula — namely attempting to deal with a dependency and grievance problem by making dependent people more dependent, while pouring gasoline on their grievance fire.But, I digress. Quebec lost the 1995 referendum, but found ways to punish Canada for forcing them to stay in Canada. Through many backroom deals, Canada’s equalization formula and other federal programs have been leveraged to reward Quebec, at the expense, particularly, of Alberta and Saskatchewan. Alberta basically pays for Quebec’s expensive day care program. In essence, Quebec is being bribed to stay in Canada.From the time that the Parti Quebecois swept into power in 1976 (and even before that) enormous amounts of time and energy have been devoted to trying to convince Quebec to stay in Canada. Bribery.Do we really want to go through all of that again? If the BQ forms the official opposition, and coordinates their efforts with their separatist provincial counterparts, that is probably exactly what we are in for. Instead of starting to tackle the massive mess the Trudeau Liberals have left us with, Pollievre would instead have to spend his time and energy trying to convince the people of Quebec that they should choose Canada — and also probably trying to convince the rest of Canada that we should fight to keep them.Do we really want to let an openly separatist party set the agenda for us for an indefinite number of years? Rome is burning now, in a figurative sense, and Canada has many serious and even existential problems to deal with. Trump’s threat to impose 25% tariffs on all of our exports to his country is very real. We also have massive federal and provincial debts. Those are only a few of the many real problems we face. Wasting valuable time and energy on another round of Quebec appeasement is not something we can afford to do. Governing with a separatist official opposition should be avoided. Better the devil you know, than the devil you don’t know.So, perhaps an interregnum of a few months that gives a battered Liberal party a chance to choose a new leader and collect itself is not such a bad thing. That new leader will be chosen by March 9, and we can probably expect an election later in the spring. That new leader, whoever it will be, will have one thing going for him or her (or they?) He or she will not be Justin Trudeau. That feature will undoubtedly result in an upturn in Liberal fortunes — or at least an improvement from their current dismal place in the polls.And we have already been given a strong hint about what the next Liberal leader will run on. Dominic Leblanc has told us that he has now decided that Trump’s “joke” about Canada becoming the 51st state is no joke at all.There you have it. The Liberals are signalling that after ten years of telling us that Canada is a post-national state with no core identity; that Canada is a systematically racist, genocidal country with a shameful history, the next Liberal leader will wrap him , her, or theyself in the Canadian flag, and campaign as Captain Canada.And they’ll hope Canadians will swallow it.It is to be hoped that Canadians will see through this massive hypocrisy. But at the end of the day, maybe a smaller, slightly chastened Liberal opposition might be a better alternative than facing a solid wall of grinning separatists, dedicated to breaking up the country.So, maybe we should be careful what we wish for.

GIESBRECHT: Be careful what you wish for

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