Trump announced on March 23 that there will be a five-day pause on attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure while he negotiates with a senior IRGC official who has called for discussions. Trump cited "very good and productive conversations" held over the preceding weekend regarding a "complete and total resolution" of hostilities in the Middle East.Is this true? Did a senior IRGC official call for discussions? If these negotiations are real, is there any realistic possibility that they could lead to a peace deal?Frankly, we have no way of knowing. We are deep in the “fog of war,” and everything anyone says or writes we must take with a grain of salt. Trump might be bluffing; the IRGC might be bluffing; or everyone might be bluffing. And considering the fact that American and Israeli forces are counting to pound IRGC sites, it doesn’t seem likely that any war-ending deal is in sight.And most of what the mainstream media offers is not objective analysis, but the knee-jerk Trump-bashing that has come to typify CBC and most Canadian mainstream media outlets. So it is hard to get a handle on what is really going on.But, failing some miraculous agreement being reached to bring an extremely complicated war to an end, it is worth speculating on some of the other reasons why this pause might have been announced. Apart from some immediate advantages of the pause on the aggressive escalation that would take place if energy infrastructure were demolished, such as a calming of international money markets and a temporary lowering of oil prices, there could be other reasons as well why Trump wants a little time. .For instance, the 5,000 marines of the 31st and 11th Marine Expeditionary Units (MEU) on the USS Tripoli and Boxer, expected to arrive near Hormuz on March 27 — the last of Trump’s five-day pause — might need a little extra time to prepare themselves for any expedition they are tasked to undertake.Unlike the 50,000 or so American combat troops already stationed in the area, these marines are trained and equipped to launch ground expeditions (raids) directly from their ships. If the “negotiations” don’t go well (or if there weren’t any negotiations to begin with), there are many possibilities for the use of the MEUs.Capturing Kharg Island is one of the possible objectives mentioned. Kharg is Iran’s main oil-exporting port. As much as 90% of its oil goes through Kharg. The island is about 15 miles away from the mainland at the closest port, and American bombing has already destroyed its defensive apparatus.Complete American control of the island could result in a situation similar to Venezuela, where Venezuela’s oil is now under American control. This would hand Trump a (sorry) “trump card” when he meets Xi later this spring. We can only imagine how startled Communist China would be if they learned that the Iranian oil that they rely on, as much as 15% or their total supply, was controlled by their arch rival.But there are many reasons why an occupation of the island by the Marines would be problematic. They would be highly vulnerable to attack from the mainland, and it is not clear exactly what purpose would be served by an occupation. The island is simply an oil-exporting hub, and the oil might be diverted by Iran to other ports or pipelines if Kharg were taken out of their control. An outright occupation of Kharg might not be in the cards.More likely would be raids on some of the small islands off the Strait of Hormuz, such as Larak Island. It is believed that these islands are vital to Iran’s ability to control the strait. There is even speculation that Russia is providing intelligence assistance to Iran via these islands. .Larak is particularly important. It is considered a “choke point enforcer” that the IRGC uses to control the shipping lanes it watches over. Fast-attack boats are probably hidden at Larak and capable of swiftly attacking in swarms, and then returning to their hiding place. Missile batteries and drones are also hidden on Larak. A raid by the Marines could find and destroy these weapons, as well as destroy the sophisticated system of computers and military infrastructure located on Larak. Taking out Larak would probably make neutralizing the other small islands much easier. An island-hopping campaign by an MEU is something they are uniquely suited for.If the Marines were used in this way, it is not clear if they would simply destroy and leave or attempt to occupy Larak. Obviously, the latter would be riskier. The island is only 15 miles or so from the Iranian mainland, and consequently within easy reach of land-based artillery. Time will tell.The USS Tripoli by itself is quite an amazing naval vessel. Often described as a “mini-aircraft carrier,” it is capable of performing many functions. The 20 F-35s that can take off from its deck are lethal. The fast-attack boats that the IRGC still has in significant numbers, and hides in nooks, crannies and caves, are not “fast” when on the open water being chased by one of these modern American jet fighters. In fact, the boats are easy work for them.Another even more audacious possible use for the Marines is that American special forces will raid the Isfahan nuclear facility near Tehran and/or others to remove the 970 pounds of highly enriched uranium the Americans believe are being stored underground. This would be a complex operation that might involve 1,000 or more highly trained special operations troops. Obviously, the risks would be great.If Marines were used in such an operation, they would probably play a backseat role. Rather, it would be elite Delta Force or Navy Seals specially trained in the extraction of nuclear material that would spearhead the operation.We don’t know what the next steps will be in this war. Even the President and his closest advisers only know what they are planning to do. And even those few don’t know how those plans will work out. As Mike Tyson famously said, “Everyone has a plan. Until he gets punched in the face.” .Trump knows full well that even the best plan can go south fast. He will constantly have on his mind President Jimmy Carter’s disastrous 1980 operation Eagle Claw that ended so badly. It was an ambitious plan that was meant to rescue the American hostages being held by the brand-new Iranian Islamic theocracy. Instead, crashed American helicopters in the desert meant failure and humiliation for the Carter regime. That spectacular disaster was largely responsible for Ronald Reagan’s win over Carter later that year.Trump is also fully aware that his many enemies, both domestically and internationally, would love to see him fail. So, there is probably a limit to how adventurous he will choose to be. For that reason, my layman’s guess is that the Marines are more likely to be used for the more straightforward plan of raiding Larak Island and opening the Strait of Hormuz, as opposed to some of the more ambitious plans now being floated. The war is far from over. We know now that the real power of the regime lies with the IRGC. Both the president and the new ayatollah are just their puppets. And we also realize that the IRGC has been preparing for a war they knew was coming for decades. As Middle East expert Michael Doran puts it:“Iran foresaw this war and built its strategy around a single ace in the hole: the ability to disrupt global energy flows. It dispersed capabilities, decentralized command, and built redundancy into every layer of the system. The route to decisive victory runs through the destruction of that system.”Trump has now handed Iran his 15-point peace plan. The terms obviously include the cessation of hostilities in return for a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and the other terms Iran rejected before the war started. It remains to be seen how the IRGC leaders — the ones that are still alive, that is — will react to this plan.So we have no idea when or how this war will end. But the one thing we have learned since hostilities began is exactly how dangerous the Iranian regime is. They are lashing out at any of their neighbours within reach of their missiles and drones. Their recent strikes are clearly meant to target civilians. There can be no doubt now that if they had been given more time to acquire even more devastating weapons — including nuclear — they would have used them. Every president from Jimmy Carter on knew that the rogue Iranian regime was becoming more and more dangerous. But they were afraid to confront the danger and passed the problem on to their successor. Trump was the first president to confront the very real problem head-on.He has been vindicated in his decision to strike Iran now, and not just hand the problem of an even more dangerous Iran to a successor.
