GIESBRECHT: The ‘gay ayatollah’ rumour and the fog of war in Iran

It is difficult to know how the war in Iran is actually going. In addition to the usual fog of war, there are simply so many competing claims, theories, and sometimes completely nutty videos, podcasts, and other posts trending on social media that it is not that easy to sift through to find the truth. There are literally thousands of them.One claim circulating widely, for example, was that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was dead … until he appeared alive and well in a coffee shop schmoozing with customers, that is.Another is that the new ayatollah, Mojtaba Khameini, the 56-year-old son of the slain one, was at Vladimir Putin’s house convalescing from a leg injury. Another has him delirious after his leg was amputated. Who knows?The one about Tucker Carlson might in fact be true. Carlson — an outspoken anti-war podcaster — was invited by President Trump to the White House twice in January. Many photos of Trump and Carlson appeared in newspapers worldwide. The theory goes that Trump — who surely knew by then that he would attack Iran — was using Carlson as a decoy to give the Iranian regime a false sense of security that he wouldn’t attack. Trump did attack, and the old ayatollah was one of the first casualties. Whether or not Trump used the confused Carlson in this way is not clear. What is known is that Carlson could be facing very serious charges for not registering as a foreign agent.Or what about the best one yet — that the new ayatollah is gay? This rumour does not appear to be a scurrilous one. There is much evidence to support it. In fact, it seems that his son’s gayness — a capital offence in Iran — was the reason why the late Ayatollah Khomeini did not want his son to succeed him. It is reported that Trump and his senior advisors laughed out loud when they were given credible reports that the new ayatollah is gay.There are countless claims and counterclaims like these circulating on social media, and ascertaining the truth is almost impossible..But there is another reason why it is very hard to figure out what is going on with this war. And that reason can be called the “Trump factor.” Simply put, mainstream journalists have been so indoctrinated for so many years with the impulse to interpret everything Trump says, does, or is involved with in the most negative light possible that our “news” is not reliable. Their first instinct is to ask themselves, “How can I write this story in a way that will make Trump look bad, and not good?” Some of these pundits have been doing this for so long that they might not even be aware that they are going through this thought process.CBC is a prime example of this weird bias. Their “coverage” of the war will usually start with the repetition — for perhaps the hundredth time — of the claim that American forces struck a school and killed Iranian schoolchildren. That claim is under investigation, and may in fact be true. Every war has innocent casualties. But their constant repetition of that claim has to be contrasted with their “coverage” of the Iranian protests in January and the reported slaughter by the Iranian forces of as many as 32,000 of their own citizens. The CBC hardly covered that at all. For days, Iran’s streets were filled with protestors desperately demanding that their 47 years of oppression be ended. Then, IRGC thugs systematically murdered at least 32,000 of them. There are even credible reports of IRGC goons entering hospitals to finish off wounded protesters. And from CBC, there was hardly a peep.And now, all the major networks and newspapers seem to be intent on labelling the American and Israeli assault on Iran as an unmitigated failure that must be brought to an end immediately.But this claim that the war has been a disaster for America and Israel flies in the face of the facts. Most of Iran’s senior leadership was killed in the first strikes. Iran’s navy and air force have been absolutely decimated, and 90% of its missile and drone systems have been disabled. How can that be called a failure? Even if the war ends tomorrow, Iran would not be able to rebuild its offensive weapon capability for years, or even decades. General Caine said that it was America’s goal to cripple Iran’s lethality, and that goal has already been achieved. Trump’s bold decision has already made the world safer for many years to come.And the message to Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin couldn’t be clearer: “Despite what you have been telling your people, America is not a decadent, dying nation. We are fighting to defend our interests, and you had better pay attention.”But it is definitely fair to ask how and when this war will end. The estimate given by Trump for the length of the active Trump was for hostilities to cease in 4-5 weeks. We are now into week 3. If the 4-5 week estimate comes and goes, journalists will increasingly ask when it will end. That is fair..There are many possible scenarios about what the end of the war will look like. I don’t think anyone involved in the decision to attack seriously believed that the old regime would simply melt away and be replaced by a pro-Western liberal democracy. That’s not the way war works.The attack on Kharg Island might give us some clues about how the Americans plan to proceed. Kharg Island is a small, unremarkable pile of rock about 15 miles from the Iranian coast. What makes it important — very important — is that 90% of Iran’s oil is processed, stored, and exported from the island. It is absolutely vital to Iran’s economy. By attacking the island and degrading the island’s extensive defence systems while leaving the oil systems intact, Trump might have given us a clue how things will go.By destroying Kharg’s defences and signalling to the IRGC that they can capture Kharg at a time of their choosing, America now has a stranglehold on the Iranian economy. We know that 2,500-5,000 US Marines are now in transit to Iran.Will those Marines be used to occupy the island? Will the United States take control of Iran’s oil business as it did in Venezuela? Or, if the IRGC continues to resist, will Trump do to Iran what Rome did to Carthage in 146 BC? Rome completely destroyed Carthage, making it unable to ever threaten Rome again. The US could easily do that to Iran by completely demolishing all of its oil infrastructure. It would take decades for Iran to recover.My guess is that won’t happen. Trump is a businessman and knows that it would be bad for business. The loss of Iran as an oil producer would have a devastating effect on the world economy, and Trump doesn’t want that.But Trump does want to have a less dangerous and less hostile Iran — an Iran where “Death to America” is not chanted daily in the public squares. And here’s where the Venezuela model — namely, decapitating the leadership, taking control of the oil supply, and forcing the more compliant remainders of the old leadership might not be as useful as what will probably soon be called the “Cuban” model..What is that? It is using a combination of economic carrots and sticks to force a more America-friendly regime. There is good evidence that exactly that will soon be happening in Cuba. The aging remnants of the Castro regime will be convinced to retire, and an America-friendly regime will take its place. This might even involve the 41-year-old grandson of Raúl Castro being installed as the leader. In return, the United States would help get Cuba’s main economic driver — tourism — up and running again. Cuba, even by next year, could be a very different country if this happens.If this combination of the “Venezuela” and “Cuba” models was how things go, this might be the best practical alternative for Iran. A brand new democracy would be a wonderful thing, but the chances of that happening are very slim. At the same time, a bloody civil war — Syria style — lasting for years, and resulting in a few million displaced Iranians, would be about the worst alternative.The immediate American goal is obviously to gain control over the Strait of Hormuz. This vital choke point, between Iran and the Oman peninsula, is about 100 miles long and 20 miles wide at its narrowest point. It has long been Iran’s ace in the hole because it can basically blackmail the oil producers of the region by threatening to block it if they don’t get their way. Since about 25% of the world’s oil supply passes through it every day, it is a very effective threat. Technically, a United Nations Convention governs passage through the strait, but Iran has always played fast and loose with the legalities. Their attempt to block the strait now is their last desperate act. If the US is going to win this war, it must establish control over the Strait. If Trump can’t do that, he will have lost the war, and he knows it.Currently, Trump is calling on European nations to help open the Strait and keep it open. France, with its aircraft carrier and escorts, is in the region and could do so, but is resisting. As Joseph Quesnel argues in the Western Standard, Europe and Canada should be doing their part in ensuring that passage through the strait remains free for all nations that are benefiting from it.Political posturing is occurring, but self-interest will probably result in some agreement being reached fairly soon. Europe has a great deal at stake here, while the US is oil self-sufficient. Trump will probably win this political fight. If the major hostilities end with the IRGC regime in power, or in control of parts of Iran, it is very possible that Europe — and Canada — will be required to play an important role in keeping the Strait open and see to their own defence generally — something Trump has been after Europe — and Canada — to do since he first came to power in 2016..However it plays out, at some point active hostilities will cease, and Trump will do what he does best — namely, he’ll make a deal.But when that happens, let’s make sure that Canada doesn’t become a haven for the mullahs and IRGC thugs who have only recently slaughtered at least 32,000 of their own citizens.These dangerously radical Islamists are committed to the destruction of the West, and not only the obliteration of Israel, but the death of Jews throughout the world. If you think that is hyperbolic, listen to the words of the late ayatollah himself. He called for the “elimination” of Israel, calling it a “cancerous tumour.” He gave literally hundreds of spit-flecked speeches calling for the death of the “Great Satan” and the “Little Satan.” That wasn’t poetry. Those were death threats.There is no doubt that many Liberal and NDP voices will put pressure on Ottawa to admit the mullahs, ayatollahs, and IRGC thugs who are already fleeing the dying Iranian regime. Although the Carney government has taken steps to limit IRGC members from entering Canada, there are still many loopholes. For example, mullahs and ayatollahs who are not technically IRGC members, but actually very closely aligned with them, can get in using asylum law. Once in, our weak immigration system means that they will be here indefinitely.Those are the zealots who will end up indoctrinating our children at Canadian universities, marching in Toronto and Montreal, calling for “Death to Israel” and “Death to the West.” These are people we don’t want in Canada.We need to close these loopholes immediately. Failure to do so invites extremism in Canada, terrorism waged from within Canada, and huge trouble with the Trump administration. This war will end. Let’s let the war’s losers escape to nations that share their death cult extremism. That’s not Canada.

GIESBRECHT: The ‘gay ayatollah’ rumour and the fog of war in Iran

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