As predicted, the Parti Québécois has won the Quebec election. The leader, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, is committed to holding a referendum on separation during this term, but not until the Trump term ends in 2028.The very interesting question for Alberta and the rest of Canada is this: What would Canada look like if Quebec actually left?It seems obvious that the departure of Quebec would have massive consequences for what was left of Canada. For one thing, the Western provinces would be in the driver’s seat — or at least sharing it.If Quebec were to leave, the remaining nation (often referred to in constitutional theory as "Rest of Canada" or ROC) would undergo a drastic shift in demographic, electoral, and economic leverage.Currently, Canada's federal political power is heavily concentrated in Central Canada (Ontario and Quebec) due to representation by population.In the House of Commons, Quebec currently holds 78 of the 343 seats. If those 78 seats were to vanish, the total seat pool would shrink to 265.The four Western provinces — British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba — collectively hold 79 seats. If Quebec were to leave, Western Canada's share of the House of Commons would jump overnight from roughly 23% to nearly 30%.Historically, an alliance of Ontario and Quebec seats could easily form a majority government, often leaving Western voters feeling alienated. However, without Quebec, Ontario would remain the largest province but could no longer dominate federal politics without building a meaningful consensus with the West..Quebec’s veto would be gone overnight.For over a century, federal political parties have structured their platforms around winning Quebec to form a government.Quebec's departure would significantly reshape federal political parties, particularly the Liberals, by eliminating the need to balance policy to appease Quebec voters. Consequently, issues deeply important to Alberta — such as natural resource development, pipeline expansions, and local judicial autonomy — would face far less structural friction in a Parliament without Quebec's progressive and environmental voting bloc.Removing Quebec's 24 fixed seats from the Senate would instantly elevate the proportional voting power of Western senators, correcting a long-standing grievance regarding Western Canada's under-representation in the upper chamber.The equalization boondoggle would disappear.Quebec is historically a major net beneficiary of Canada’s Equalization Program, which redistributes federal tax dollars to provinces with lower fiscal capacities. Alberta and Saskatchewan have historically been the primary net contributors to this system. With Quebec's departure, a massive portion of the equalization burden would disappear.The Western provinces would have immense leverage to rewrite Canada's fiscal laws. They could demand that federal tax revenues be kept locally or reinvested directly into Western infrastructure and resource sectors rather than being redistributed to eastern jurisdictions.What would happen to the Atlantic provinces is not clear. Those provinces (Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, PEI, and Newfoundland and Labrador) would be physically cut off from the rest of Canada by an independent Quebec. With a combined population of less than three million, they are a wonderful part of Canada, but much less important in economic terms than either Ontario or the Western provinces..Ontario, on the other hand, would remain Canada’s most important province. With a population larger than the combined population of all four Western provinces and with a highly developed manufacturing sector and a direct relationship with the United States, Ontario would remain the centre of what would be left of Canada after Quebec’s departure.But the relationship between Western Canada and the “Laurentian elite” would come to an end because the appeasement of Quebec — which has always been the beating heart of Confederation — would be gone.Let me be clear at this point: I love Quebec and hope Quebecers decide that they want to remain in Canada. Their distinct culture and their beloved French language enrich us all and make Canada a unique country.But Quebecers have just given a mandate to a political party that is committed to leaving. The ROC has to prepare for the eventuality that those voters and that party mean what they say. So, let’s prepare.If Quebecers do vote to leave, it means that constitutional discussions must take place with their demands placed on the table. But that also means that all Canadians get a chance to place their demands for constitutional change on the table too.My own demand will be that we use this opportunity to put the entire Indian apartheid system on the table and vote to bring it to an end. It was always meant to be a temporary apartheid system, and only the short-sighted decisions of indigenous and non-indigenous politicians — and overreaching judges — have kept it in place..GIESBRECHT: It’s not too late to abolish the Indian Act.I will propose fair compensation in return for abolishing the Indian Act and the reserve system. I will also propose abolishing Section 35 and having Parliament take back from the courts all special Indian jurisdiction.Others will have their own requests. I do not mean to make light of the importance of what Quebecers have voted for. The failed Meech Lake and Charlottetown debates took over four years, start to finish, with all of the nail-biting and sabre-rattling that those debates involved. I’m sure that Quebec’s departure would result in high emotion and angst for at least that long.But Quebec voters are telling us that we had better be prepared for years of that high drama again.And this time around, many residents of Western Canada will be less emotional and more sanguine about the real possibility that they will go.
