Trump has been down for the count so many times that it’s hard to remember all of the times when it was predicted that he was on his way out. He wasn’t supposed to win in 2016. He did. When he lost in 2020 he was basically given up for dead. And just to make sure, his opponents used lawfare, congressional hearings, and almost everything in the books to kick him while he was down. But he rose, like Lazarus, and won again in 2024.But now, with the IRGC doing everything in their power to beat him, aided by the Democrats and the legions of people who despise him pulling out all the stops to make sure he loses the midterms, he looks a bit like the Thanksgiving turkey getting ready to say goodbye to his carefully coiffed head.But this is Trump, so not so fast. And remember that election gambit peculiar to our neighbour to the south — the October surprise.No one — except Trump, that is — knows what his October surprise will be. But rest assured that he has one, or two, or three.Here are some options that could happen.First, after all the brave talk, booing of Americans at hockey games, and “elbows-up” bravado, Canada and the United States will announce that they have a trade deal. Carney will boast that his “elbows up” strategy did it. Trump will claim that it was his “Art of the Deal” skills that were responsible for the victory. Regardless, this deal will immediately give Trump the win in Rust Belt states, like Michigan..Second, Rubio will announce that Cuba has made a deal with America. The remaining living corpses of the Castro regime will be shuffled off to retirement somewhere, and the huge potential of Cuba will finally — with American investment — be unleashed. Florida and Cuba will be buzzing with excitement.Greenland will finally be under Trump’s control. Denmark will remain involved, as will the rest of Europe, but America will be able to keep China and Russia out of its backyard, as Trump has demanded all along.Venezuela oil deals with America will be trumpeted and retrumpeted to the American electorate. The potential is staggering, promising a massive influx of heavy crude that could immediately drive down prices at the American pump just days before voters head to the ballot box. By cutting a pragmatically ruthless deal with Caracas, Trump has completely undercut the environmental lobby, while handing a massive economic victory to working-class drivers.The other possible October surprises are Ukraine and Iran. These are both uncertain, but neither Ukraine nor Russia is looking forward to another winter like the last one — or one even worse. Painful concessions on both sides could result in a deal somewhat like the Korean situation, where both sides completely distrust and despise one another, but at least stop the slaughter.Finally, Iran. Iran still has enough oil sitting in tankers deep in the oceans to pay the bills. But that oil is being bought up by the Chinese teapot refineries, and no new oil is getting out. Iran’s storage tanks at Kharg Island are almost full, and the flow of oil will soon have to be stopped — with permanent damage to those oil wells. Their IRGC is desperately hoping that they can do enough damage to Trump before November that he will lose big in the midterms, and he will be replaced by a more compliant group.But just imagine what a dramatic, televised breakthrough in the Middle East would do for Trump’s fortunes. He loves a grand gesture, and a sudden, highly publicized expansion of the Abraham Accords — perhaps bringing a major Gulf state or a reformed regional player directly to Mar-a-Lago for a historic handshake — would instantly reframe him as the ultimate global peacemaker. Finally, do not rule out a domestic bombshell. A perfectly timed leak or a coordinated declassification of sensitive documents could completely upend the opposition's narrative, shifting the media spotlight entirely onto the business dealings or policy failures of his detractors..And new revelations about the socialist and antisemitic inclinations of his opponents could do the Democrats great harm. By defining opponents as ideologically extreme and morally compromised, the strategy aims to suppress Democratic turnout while driving historic mobilization among the Republican base. This is basic Trump messaging. Expect him to hammer this message home in every speech he gives between now and November.The strategy behind an October surprise isn't just about policy; it is about completely capturing the media cycle and altering voter psychology at the absolute last minute. Whether any of these specific cards are played, one thing is certain: Trump has spent decades surviving by rewriting the rules of the game when his opponents think the clock has run out.So don’t count Trump out just yet.No one knows how things will look a month from now — or even next week, for that matter. But I’m not sure that all the “smart money” on a big Republican loss on November 3 is that smart.I guess we’ll have to wait and see.
