On April 1, President Donald Trump addressed the American nation on the state of the war with Iran. He reported that a significant degree of victory was achieved by the US very quickly in its war with Iran. Iran’s offensive capabilities have been degraded for years to come. He also advised that discussions are ongoing with the more reasonable elements of the surviving Iranian leaders. But he also promised that if no deal is forthcoming, America would use devastating force to conclude the war within a couple of weeks.Trump is often criticized for making inconsistent statements or changing his positions. But one thing Trump has been completely consistent on for decades is this: “Iran can never be allowed to have nuclear weapons.” He first made this statement in the 1980s and has repeated it clearly hundreds of times in interviews and broadcasts since that time. He repeated it both before and after he was elected, both times.Trump is accurate in his claim that Iran’s military capability to do harm — including its ability to develop nuclear weapons — has been seriously degraded for years to come. However, the mainstream media is so focused on presenting everything about Trump’s Iran campaign in the most negative light that they completely omit that remarkable achievement, and declare everything about the war to be an unmitigated disaster. And despite the fact that this major war has only been ongoing for a matter of weeks, while most major wars last many months or years, the mainstream media inaccurately presents a picture of a “forever war.” I am attempting to skip through the politics and give an objective layman’s view of where the war stands. In my last article, I guessed that the strategically important islands off the coast of Iran would be the most likely target of American invasion and capture, if a deal is not reached. I continue to believe that, despite Trump’s recent talk of negotiations in Pakistan. I believe Trump may be basically buying some time to calm the markets and get troops in place to begin the next phase of the war. And at the same time that Trump claims to be having “very good talks” with someone in Iran, he also issues chilling threats. On March 30, Trump threatened to blow up electric generating plants, oil wells, Kharg Island, and desalination plants..Like all of Trump’s claims, it is impossible to know which ones are bluffs and which are real. Blowing up Iran’s desalination plants is not going to happen. Take Trump seriously but not literally. Trump’s enemies have learned the hard way that sometimes it is a case of “TACO” (Trump always chickens out), but other times it is “FAFO” (“F” around and find out). They just don’t know which it will be until it happens.The truth is that no one knows what will happen next in this war. Trump’s senior military advisers told him going in that this war would be no cakewalk, and estimated that 3-8 weeks of sustained bombing would be needed to subdue a very deeply dug-in enemy. Those warnings were prescient.So, what is likely to happen next?My layman’s guess, if no deal is reached, is that US Marines and the 82nd Airborne will launch an operation on one or more of the islands currently held by Iran. Kharg is the one most often mentioned, because it is the oil exporting hub from where 90% of Iran’s oil and gas is loaded onto tankers for China, India, and other buyers. The Marines could probably take Kharg relatively easily, but holding it without the loss of American lives would be difficult. Kharg is close to the Iranian mainland, bristling with precision weapons, and the Marines could be sitting ducks..So, some of the other islands close to Hormuz might be easier targets. Abu Musa is attractive, because although it is occupied by Iran, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) actually has a better claim to it. The US could claim that they were not technically “putting boots on the ground” in Iran by occupying Abu Masu, and they would likely have the UAE backing up this claim. The island is also closer to the UAE than Iran, and not as vulnerable as Kharg to attack.Two smaller islands close to Abu Musa, Greater Tunb and Lesser Tunb, are also claimed by the UAE and could probably be taken at the same time. All three islands probably hide Iranian weapons, such as fast-attack boats and missile batteries that Iran could use for harassing ships attempting to navigate the strait. Taking them out of operation would be a huge advantage for the Americans in their efforts to open the strait.Larak and the other small islands closer to the Iranian coast might also be targets for the Americans. They are all heavily fortified and capable of causing major damage to passing ships attempting to navigate the strait. Qeshm is the largest of these islands, and the most heavily fortified. But it is also close to the Iranian mainland, and consequently easier for the IRGC to defend. Destroying its weaponry from the air is probably more likely than invading and holding it.Bandar Abbas is the major port city near Hormuz. It is bristling with weaponry and would likely be the first place to be decisively bombed. It seems quite possible that residents will get a sudden evacuation notice, and heavy bombing will begin before Marines take to shore on any of the islands..Then again, there is also the possibility that Trump is just amassing troops as leverage for the negotiations he says are in progress. We don’t know.But what comes after might be every bit as interesting. The bottom line is that the US must succeed in opening the strait, one way or the other. Their Warthogs and Apache helicopters are already preparing the way. The mainstream media’s claims that the Trump administration was simply unprepared for what Iran has done in the Strait is absolutely ludicrous. The fact is that the American battle plan for Iran was written in 1980, and the Pentagon knew full well that Iran’s ace-in-the-hole for almost half a century has been a closure of the Strait. In fact, it was always Iran’s only play. Respected generals, like Frank McKenzie and Jack Keane, put paid to that mainstream media claim that the American military was taken by surprise when the IRGC closed Hormuz. The truth is that the Pentagon knew exactly what the IRGC was going to do. And, with the Marines and other special forces that have now arrived, the Americans have the tools to reopen it.Iran spent tens of billions of dollars over decades building their Hormuz strategy — a multilayer system of deeply buried missiles, drones, and hundreds of fast-attack boats combined with deadly mines that they believed was impregnable. They were wrong. American use of specialized aircraft lets Marines bypass the mine-laden waters and bring Marines and troops in by air..So, opening the Strait is essential, and it is taking place. But what seems inconceivable to me is that the US will sail away without a fight and simply let things go back to where they were before, where the Iranian regime had a virtual stranglehold over the strait that they could impose whenever they felt like it. And where the rest of the world simply depended on the United States to open it up whenever Iran chose to close it. Trump has been more than snubbed by Europe — and Canada — when he asked for help in opening the strait and “got the finger” from all of his supposed NATO allies. I think he will do things differently this time.It also seems likely that, regardless of the war’s outcome, transit through the Strait of Hormuz could be under American control for some time. It also seems possible that America will take control of Iran’s oil supply from them, as he has done in Venezuela — at least until Iran has a more stable and more Western-friendly regime. This might include occupying Kharg Island and temporarily occupying the islands close to Hormuz. This would guarantee safe passage for the 20% of the world’s trade that goes through the strait every day. But Trump has also clearly told Europe and other nations that benefit from a safe Strait of Hormuz that they must take responsibility for defending the strait, and not just rely on the US to do it for them.If there is a massive American assault, it seems likely that so much of Iran’s infrastructure, including its electricity-generating facilities, will be destroyed that it will take them decades to recover. It is hoped that what remains of Iran’s command structure will conclude that such a result would benefit no one. Hopefully, a deal that defangs a dangerous regime, but allows the Iranian people to prosper, is in the cards.But whatever happens, one casualty of this war could be the end of the NATO alliance. Trump fumed when Spain, Britain, France, and Italy denied the US the use of landing sites and airspace. Secretary of State Marco Rubio publicly questioned the value of NATO to the US if they did this, and said that after the war ended, there would be a careful examination of whether the US should withdraw from NATO..A president cannot unilaterally withdraw from NATO without Congressional involvement, but regardless of the final outcome, it is clear that Europe has made a major mistake. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte is coming to Washington to attempt to smooth over the rift, in what Europe is claiming to be a “long-planned” visit, but is clearly damage control. Meanwhile, Britain’s Keir Starmer has proposed the very thing that Trump requested of Europe — namely, active European assistance in keeping the Strait of Hormuz open.Whether these measures will be sufficient to prevent the US from exiting NATO, in what has been called “Putin’s dream plan,” remains to be seen.I suspect that European leaders will find a way to patch things up with Trump. The breakup of the NATO alliance would certainly be a dream come true for Putin and Xi, but it would be a major blow for the Free World.There will be many consequences of this war — some foreseen and some not yet clear. It is a major event that has already changed alliances. Who would have thought even a short time ago that the Gulf States would prove to be a more reliable American ally than Europe — or Canada? Who would have thought even a year ago that the world’s major state sponsor of terror for 47 years would be reduced to a ragtag bunch of terrorists hiding in tunnels and emerging only to do damage to their neighbours and passing tankers?There will be many other changes that will play out over the next months and years. But the one change that no one can deny is that a very dangerous regime has been rendered much less dangerous for many years to come. Trump kept his promise that Iran would never be allowed to have nuclear weapons.
