GRAEFE: The Trump effect on Canadian politics

Emrys Graefe is the managing partner of Political Intelligence, a government relations and public affairs firm based in OttawaThe chattering classes are anxiously handwringing about the “Trump Effect” here in Canada, and how it will play out. My Liberal friends hope that President Trump will repel Canadians from conservative leaders, taking Pierre Poilievre’s polling numbers back down to earth, and give Justin Trudeau another shot at forming government.Apologies to my Liberal friends, but you mistake the nature of politics entirely.Canadians are not, by and large, partisans. They are families who work to pay their bills and put food on the table. They try to raise their kids if they’re lucky enough to feel financially stable enough to have them. They try to save to buy homes that are priced out of reach. They watch the dollar ticker on the gas pump, not the litres.The political conditions that talking heads attribute to Trump’s political success are far worse in Canada than in the US. Our per capita GDP is the below America’s second-poorest state. Our house prices nationally are roughly the same as house prices in San Francisco. The Canadian Federation of Agriculture says the percentage of income we were spending on food in 2023 was 28%. How are we supposed to live?Pierre Poilievre’s popularity can be attributed to his economic stances. Solid, classic, conservative economic stances. For the policy wonks amongst us, Pierre is a supply-sider. Just look at the economic slogans he’s used and is using: Build the Homes. Axe the Tax. Powerful Paycheques. Etc. This is the medicine that our economy needs, and it’s the medicine that Canadians want.Poilievre has proven to Canadians that he is the leader who can be trusted to understand their plight and do something about it.You know what doesn’t work? Telling Canadians that you’re helping when you kick them in the gut every time they try to fill a tank, buy groceries, pay a bill, or look up house prices in their neighbourhoods. Collectivism hogwash about “working together” is so 2015. People are tired, hungry, and broke. After nearly a decade of Liberal government activism the strong stable economy that Prime Minister Stephen Harper left behind has been squandered. It’s time to make Canada have Jobs and Growth again.President Trump creates more turbulence, and more economic uncertainty. Why would this push people away from the leader they’ve already decided is best on economic issues? Why would this push people toward a leader so plainly out of touch that he thinks a temporary GST holiday after most people have done their holiday shopping will give him the bump in the polls he’s chasing like one of his safe supply pill junkies chasing their next fix?There is no sock in Trudeau’s effete wardrobe that will virtue signal to Canadians that he’s able to deal with President Trump. He made a desperate attempt to kiss the ring and Mar-a-Lago, and what did that get us? Memes from the President-elect and his team about making Canada the 51st state. Trump considers Trudeau as much of a joke as Canadians do. No actions the president-elect will take south of the border are going to Make Trudeau Cool Again. Emrys Graefe is the managing partner of Political Intelligence, a government relations and public affairs firm based in Ottawa. He has held senior roles in campaigns for Stephen Harper, Doug Ford, Jason Kenney, and Peter MacKay.

GRAEFE: The Trump effect on Canadian politics

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