It is probably easier to explain how the Mark Carney Liberals became almost as popular in Alberta as Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives than it ever would have been to predict. Alberta has long been the Conservative anchor of Confederation; for a Mainstreet poll to show the Liberals within three points here is remarkable.But once you look at the currents beneath the surface — economic unease, constitutional anxiety, demographic splits — the numbers begin to make a kind of grim sense.It is important first to separate Prime Minister Carney from his party. As an institution, the latter has over the past decade shown itself unprincipled and manipulative: opportunistic on firearms policy with its sweeping “gun grab,” casually dismissive of civil liberties in legislation such as the failed Bill C-63, and advancing expansive state authority in current measures like Bills C-2, C-8, and C-9. As for policy, they will promise whatever people will vote for, including, in 2025, a whole suite of smart Conservative ideas that hardly fit into the Liberal mentality at all..EXCLUSIVE POLL: Carney Liberals on the heels of Conservatives in Alberta.These are not the instincts of a party jealous of freedom — or one that values good government. They are the habits of a party that above all else values office and control. And yet somehow, Albertan voters also seem prepared to distinguish Carney the man from the Liberal machinery. Notwithstanding the economic disaster that the Liberals have constructed over the last ten years, they see only a polished central banker projecting competence, who speaks the language of stability in a time of churn. Astonishingly, they believe him. It comes down, I think, to the classic “rally-round-the-flag” response of a people feeling threatened. The world right now seems a dark place generally, and amid this background anxiety, add to this a pervasive background anxiety..Alberta, especially, stands at a crossroads. There is talk of an independence referendum, of renegotiating Confederation’s terms, of limiting Ottawa to “its lane” under the Constitution — all of it produces uncertainty. And fear: that is especially so of people whose knowledge of the Constitution is marginal. They fear, for example, without justification, that they might lose their Canada Pension Plan. (No. You paid for your benefits, they’re yours. If you can receive it in Costa Rica, you can receive it in an independent Alberta.)The poll’s most striking feature is the gender divide. Men of principle lean decisively Conservative. Women, especially older, fearful women, lean Liberal. It is tempting to dismiss this as mere sociology, but it speaks to something deeper. Freedom is an organizing principle for many men in politics. Security, for many women — and particularly for seniors — outweighs abstractions about liberty.Mr. Carney projects security. Mr. Poilievre, fairly or not, is perceived in some quarters as combative, even risky.And there’s this for voters deeply invested in provincial politics: a “yes” to Carney is not merely a “no” to Poilievre; it is a rebuke to Danielle Smith as well. What’s the betting teachers chose Carney? “Don’t talk to me about the provincial duty to defend its jurisdiction. I hate Smith.”This mentality is troubling.Perhaps then, this poll is a symptom of a deeper national malaise. Faced with mounting evidence of drift, and notwithstanding a mountain of evidence for Liberal failure over the last ten years, voters grasp reflexively for reassurance. Mr. Carney’s resume becomes a talisman. His tone becomes a sedative. It does not mean he can deliver security. It just means many people want to believe he can..Even in Alberta.In other words, if the numbers hold, they signal not a conversion to Liberal ideology but a retreat from uncertainty. They reflect an Alberta no longer sure of itself, tempted by the promise of being looked after, rather than the burden of self-assertion.There is, however, another path. Alberta could pursue real and necessary reform — demanding constitutional clarity, insisting that fiscal discipline and economic growth matter, rejecting mediocrity before it calcifies.Of course, that requires courage. It requires persuasion.Above all, it requires Mr. Poilievre to make the case not merely against the Liberals, but for a coherent alternative that feels as safe as it is free.Surprising? Absolutely.Inexplicable?Not anymore.
