Two drivers are lined up against each other a quarter mile apart. They step on the gas. First one to swerve, loses..When it comes to a net-carbon-free electricity generating grid, that’s about where Albertans are today with the federal government..Environment Minister Stephen Guilbeault wants Alberta to make the switch by 2035. Alberta premier Danielle Smith says ‘we’ll do it, but not until 2050.’.Both are dug in. Guilbeault is insistent; Smith meanwhile has suggested Ottawa go “pound sand.” Unusually frank, but yet-to-be-leaked correspondence followed over the weekend..In a presser Monday, Smith threatened that Alberta will “go our own way.”.Who swerves?.It can’t be Smith..If she likes, she can quietly forget about a provincial police force or provincial plans to collect income tax. But on this fight with Ottawa, she has passed the point of no return..Comments about anything burning seems off limits this week, but it is hard to see where lies the bridge over which she could walk back her recent statements — indeed her entire position — without massive reputational damage. In terms of playing constitutional chicken, she has thrown a steering wheel out of the window..She said this morning, “Ottawa’s strategy seems to be to placate the environmental extremists while throwing regular Canadians under the bus. That's wrong. It's unacceptable morally and financially and Alberta's government will not go along with it. We will never allow these regulations to be implemented here. Full stop.”.And Guilbeault? He must decide whether the steering wheel he saw Smith throw out of her window was the real one, or a spare brought along for the purposes of intimidation. (Hannaford's take: It's real.).Unfortunately, Guilbeault’s judgment is suspect on this. He meets the definition of fanaticism — that is, of a man who will neither change his mind, nor the subject. Thus, the path of good-faith negotiations leading to compromise and mutual accommodation has yet to be cleared..It would be possible for puzzled observers to just say, ‘a plague on both your houses. Just quit grandstanding and do your jobs.’.But that is to misunderstand the powerplay that the federal Liberals are attempting against Alberta..Reduced to its bare essentials, the issue is this. The Justin Trudeau Liberals — of whom Guilbeault in his single-minded intensity is almost a caricature — would have Alberta generate enough electricity to meet not only its current needs, but the needs of a province undergoing increased electrification caused by meeting federal mandates and also a growing population..Provinces with low-emission generation, principally nuclear and hydro power, will struggle to do this. In Alberta it is an engineering impossibility in just 12 years..And, that is before one addresses basic matters such as the time it takes to permit rights of way, commission and review the environmental impact statements, or address the significant issues that attend renewables. The landscape pollution of wind and solar farms is widely unpopular, the destruction of bird life far more serious than the occasional unfortunate duck that ends up in a tailings pond and the huge matter of recycling the technology at the end of its useful life. (Burial is presently the only feasible solution; the materials themselves are largely unrecyclable.).Guilbeault’s plans may work for Ontario, Quebec and BC with their nuclear and hydro power. But renewables — solar and wind — are intermittent. Were Alberta to attempt to do what the federal Liberals want without an instant-on baseload backup, there would be blackouts at times of peak demand..Guilbeault is thinking about what the temperature of the Earth might be in 2135..Smith wants to make sure Albertans don’t freeze in the dark in 2035..As the premier of Alberta, she therefore has no choice but to put the safety of Albertans first..So as the provincial and federal governments set up for the collision, how does this end?.Here’s the likely case..1) In the fullness of time, the federal government will solidify its regulations. Perhaps some two-bits-on-the-dollar incentive will be offered. But perhaps not and in any case, Smith would be unlikely to fall for it. She knows how in Chretien’s day the provinces were promised federal funding for healthcare to get them on board, only to find the federal contribution slashed later. The federal Liberals won’t try too hard: Come the 2025 election, a fight with the Western provinces would help them in central Canada..2) Confronted with unfavourable regulations, Smith invokes the Sovereignty Act. Feeling secure that the Constitution makes energy a provincial jurisdiction, “Alberta goes its own way.”.3) Arguing that the Smith government is bound by federal regulation anyway, the Justin Trudeau Liberals then take the matter to the Supreme Court of Canada..4) In its belief that the Constitution is a ‘living tree,’ the Liberal-dominated court invents a specious argument to justify removing the force of the Constitution, without altering the actual wording..At that point, the Government of Alberta can ignore the ruling, and see what happens. Smith would likely have very strong support..A more hopeful case is that the Government of Alberta successfully keeps things just above the stall until October 2025, at which point the Liberals lose the election and Smith finds herself dealing with a new government, with different ideas.
