HANNAFORD: Don't bet on Freeland's departure to trigger an election

Not to put too fine a point on it, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh evidently has more confidence in Justin Trudeau than Trudeau's own finance minister has. After all, Singh hasn't quit, has he?Instead, it's Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland who resigned today rather than deliver a fall economic update that is rumoured to report a $62 billion deficit. Too much apparently, even for the hitherto reliably left-wing Freeland who has herself presided over cascading deficits during her tenure in finance since she replaced Bill Morneau in Finance in 2020. But, as her letter reveals, the PM had told her on Friday that he no longer had confidence in her. He is said to want to draft former banker Mark Carney for the finance role, though what would make it attractive to Morneau takes a deviant imagination to suppose.So, is this the end for Trudeau, at last?You might think so.But don’t bet on it.The argument for Prime Minister Trudeau leaving would be that he’s had nothing but bad news for years, he can’t get a thing through Parliament, his people are quitting, he’s losing byelections all over the place and will almost certainly lose one in BC today. Meanwhile, the polls show him circling the drain, behind the NDP, some say behind the Bloc Quebecois even and his party headed for electoral oblivion.But, we have been here before. All of the above has been the normal state of affairs in the Liberal government for a long time, with safe byelections lost, high-profile women cabinet ministers dumped and humiliated by Canada’s he-feminist prime minister and swirling rumours that ‘this is it, he has to go, he can’t survive this.’And the prime minister’s reaction has always been to ignore it and carry on, in pursuit of his own personal agenda of ‘fighting climate change.’ (Conspiracy theorists may care to take note that his favoured economic adviser Mark Carney and supposed draft pick to replace MS. Freeland, is of the same mind.)So how can he hang on?First, he doesn’t care about low ratings. He doesn’t expect to survive the next election anyway and views people who don’t support his agenda as unworthy of a hearing. Misogynists, racists, people with unacceptable opinions, he’s told us all how he feels. So, who cares what they think?He also doesn’t care much about the mechanics of governing. If necessary, rule by fiat. (The recent ‘banning of hundreds of makes and models of firearms’ illustrates a process that can be widely applied.)He loses a finance minister? Big deal. Somebody else will accept the poisoned chalice in exchange for a salary bump. (Or he can get Carney. Perhaps for free.)Second, as long as he’s got NDP leader Jagmeet Singh’s support, he’s fine. Singh has his price. Trudeau will haggle. But Trudeau — or more accurately, we the taxpayers — will pay.Third and most important, as we have described before the Liberal Party has no mechanism for getting rid of a leader.They just don’t have one.In days gone by, leaders past their best-before-date could be eased from office by the combined efforts of the party’s regional lieutenants, Liberal Senators, the party’s large donors — perhaps with the promise of a corner office in a smart law firm — and a caucus acting in the interests of its own self-preservation.But in his first year in office, Trudeau reorganized the party. He emasculated the regional influencers and kicked senators out of the party (though was careful to appoint only Liberal sympathisers.) In the brave new world of limited party donations, donors don’t have the clout they once had and while a law office could no doubt be arranged, (pending a UN appointment?) it’s not much of a temptation after the PMO.That leaves the caucus.But, it’s already been tried..UPDATED: Freeland resigns from cabinet, Fall Economic Statement on hold.They will whine. They might even say the PM should go. But until enough of them resign en-masse to sit as independents and then vote down a money bill, he’s safe as long as he has Singh’s support.Why would Liberal MPs rebel now? Put yourself in their place.Parliament rises tomorrow, and doesn't return for six weeks. Things could change over Christmas.So, draw salary for another ten months, collect pension. If Liberal MPs can handle $600 billion added to debt over nine years, what’s another $62 billion? Why dump Trudeau and force an election that’s bound to cost you your job?Many Liberals MPs are not too bright. But nobody has ever credibly challenged their venality.I may be wrong. But I think Mr. Trudeau will try to run out the clock for another eight months and two weeks, before dropping the writ.And in the meantime, he will develop anti-American talking points, try to tax Alberta, BC and Saskatchewan oil and gas exports, while developing a narrative of left-wing nationalism to woo people in the East who have a history of responding well to it. It’s worked before.It really is up to Mr. Singh, isn't it? And in his statement this morning, he didn't say he had no confidence in the prime minister...

HANNAFORD: Don't bet on Freeland's departure to trigger an election

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