HANNAFORD: Fun with numbers and a rough day on The Rock

We have 35 days to go and a lot can happen in an election campaign. However on Sunday night, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre had a humungous rally in Toronto. The event was so well-attended, that the start had to be delayed while event managers squeezed more than 2,400 people into the ballroom at the Pan Pacific Hotel and did their best to pack in the late arrivals. Lots of friendly hootin' and hollerin' — and as everywhere to be seen so far on Poilievre's campaign trail so far both before and after the election call, his wife Ana and their lovely children starring at the forefront. Poilievre doesn't just bring it home, he takes home with him.Meanwhile Liberal leader Mark Carney got sworn at by disgruntled Newfoundland fishermen and had to call the police. Gifted perhaps with second sight, Mrs. Carney was nowhere to be seen.It puzzles me that when Mr. Poilievre was launching his campaign with a high-energy event in front of thousands of excited hand-clapping, foot-stomping, venue-jamming supporters, Mr. Carney chose to start on The Rock among dozens of people his regional desk could have told him, had a bone to pick with the Liberal government.Well-meant campaign advice, perhaps? 'We have to go to Newfoundland at some point sir, so let's get it over with?' Anyway, here's how it went. Should have just smiled a lot, got screeched-in and headed for anywhere else. (He actually went to Gander.).WATCH: Carney calls cops on fishermen protesting at his first election rally.Mr. Carney's second major act of the first 24 hours was to beg off the TVA Nouvelles French-language debate. I am told that if you were a native French speaker, and had heard Mr. Carney speaking French, you wouldn't ask why. (Although, he is still doing the leaders' debate. Perhaps it was just TVA's $75,000 participation fee... Nah, couldn't be that, surely.)The inability to speak French is not a moral failing, of course. It is however, a liability when you can't speak it well and you're looking to solidify the Quebec vote. .More substantively, both Mr. Carney and Mr. Poilievre promised tax cuts in the first 24 hours. In fact, Mr. Carney could not wait to stake out the high ground and had barely left Rideau Hall before promising what he called a middle class tax cut, knocking off one percent from the lowest income tax bracket. However, what's Mr. Poilievre offering? He's pitching 15% off the rate charged on the lowest income tax bracket..Poilievre promises 15% tax cut for Canadian workers.So, fun with numbers. Now keep in mind, I pay other people, cleverer than myself, to do my taxes.However, here's how it looks.The basic personal exemption being $15,075, the lowest income bracket on which tax is paid is from $15,075 to $55,867. Presently we all pay 15% on this.Mr. Carney is offering 14%.Meanwhile Mr. Poilievre is offering 12.75%, that is the 15% we pay, less 15% of it, ie to 12.75%.There's the better deal, by about $700, for somebody earning $70,000.And historically, Conservatives are more reliable on tax cuts, because they see them as tax cuts. Because Liberal govern as if they think all the money in Canada belongs to them, they see them as revenue expenditures. It hurts to give it away..As I said, a lot can happen in five weeks and there's nothing fatal here for Mr. Carney. But he can't be that happy and that campaign grinding sound you're listening to is like what you hear on a semi changing up from high-first to low-second, without double-declutching.Better luck on Day Two.Meanwhile Poilievre didn't let him get away without a passing kick, either: "Mark Carney is too fragile to debate other leaders, how can he stand up to Donald Trump?"How indeed? And so, to Day Two.