Russia is Canada’s neighbour. And that could mean trouble up the road. That’s the cautionary advice for Canada from Ukraine’s ambassador to Canada, Her Excellency Yuliya Kovaliv, in Alberta this week for meetings with Premier Danielle Smith.In a Western Standard interview, Kovaliv said Tuesday, “Russia is the biggest threat to NATO but it's not only it's invasion of Ukraine... Russia is Canada's neighbour in the north.".It is literally true, but easy to forget. Canadians are accustomed to seeing the world as a Mercator projection, with Canada on the left and Russia dominating the world island on the right. Poorly represented in that view is the mineral-rich polar seabed between them, with the exact boundary between them yet to be defined. And once determined, enforced….Trouble is, with the exception of Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s annual northern pilgrimages during the years he held office, Canadian sovereignty over its northern islands and the ocean floor beyond them has been more declared than exercised. (The incumbent prime minister has discontinued the practice of attending the annual Operation Nanook sovereignty exercise.)Meanwhile, receding ice continues to make the resources more accessible than they have ever been. So far, the determination of boundaries between Canada, Russia and the other states with an interest in the Arctic has understandably matched the pace of melting ice. However, there will come a time when it matters.Kovaliv: "The issue here is that you need to look up… Russia is continuing to build its military presence in the Arctic. The way the general Russian economy is developing, it's not a market economy. It is an economy totally based on the extraction of natural resources and the resources are depleting, so the way for Putin and his regime, the next thing is the Arctic. So, while supporting Ukraine, NATO is also securing countries who are also Russian neighbors, whether it is to the west or directly to the north.”Ambassador Kovaliv considers that Ukraine is ‘protecting NATO’s eastern flank’ and was addressing the growing number of Canadians who have become disengaged with the Russo-Ukrainian war. Strictly speaking, Ukraine’s application to join NATO has not been accepted. It is also plain from the circumstances that before Ukraine fights to protect NATO’s eastern flank, it fights to defend itself from one of the most unambiguous acts of naked aggression in Europe, since the start of the Second World War 85 years ago.Since Russian tanks rolled into Ukraine in February 2022, Canada has committed more than $4 billion in military assistance to Ukraine. However, a recent Angus Reid poll suggests many Canadians have "shifted their gaze away from the region," and nearly a quarter are saying Canada has offered “too much support” — a number that has doubled since the early weeks of the war.According to the Reid poll, this sentiment is growing across party lines, but is especially strong with Conservative voters among whom former Fox News host Tucker Carlson — a noted opponent of continued aid to Ukraine — is particularly popular. (Carlson has frequently observed that US President Joe Biden seems more concerned with Ukraine’s eastern border than America’s southern one.)What one makes of the Ukrainian position depends upon what one thinks is Putin’s end-game. From the time of the Tsars and all through the years of the Soviet empire, Russian foreign policy has sought to have a line of militarily weak states between its western border and Europe. The French invasion of 1812, the Crimean War of the 1850s and the German assault of 1941 are Russian proof points. And if the Russians consider Ukrainian NATO membership to be a complete removal of the buffer zone between Mother Russia and a hostile alliance, that would be entirely consistent.On the other hand, how much should Canada trust the Russians? Nobody can be sure that Vladimir Putin’s ambitions are confined by such narrow historical precedent. And even if the Polish border is indeed the limit of his European claims, Canadians can still have no such assurance that the Russians will be so restrained in the Arctic.In that case, Canada will want all the friends it can get. We will be talking again about the merits of collective security.So does Ukraine seem a long way away?Alert, in Canada’s high Arctic, is actually closer to Moscow than it is to Ottawa. Think about it. Meanwhile, it's hard not to cheer on a country that got attacked, bombarded and brutalised by an aggressor. Think about that, too.
Russia is Canada’s neighbour. And that could mean trouble up the road. That’s the cautionary advice for Canada from Ukraine’s ambassador to Canada, Her Excellency Yuliya Kovaliv, in Alberta this week for meetings with Premier Danielle Smith.In a Western Standard interview, Kovaliv said Tuesday, “Russia is the biggest threat to NATO but it's not only it's invasion of Ukraine... Russia is Canada's neighbour in the north.".It is literally true, but easy to forget. Canadians are accustomed to seeing the world as a Mercator projection, with Canada on the left and Russia dominating the world island on the right. Poorly represented in that view is the mineral-rich polar seabed between them, with the exact boundary between them yet to be defined. And once determined, enforced….Trouble is, with the exception of Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s annual northern pilgrimages during the years he held office, Canadian sovereignty over its northern islands and the ocean floor beyond them has been more declared than exercised. (The incumbent prime minister has discontinued the practice of attending the annual Operation Nanook sovereignty exercise.)Meanwhile, receding ice continues to make the resources more accessible than they have ever been. So far, the determination of boundaries between Canada, Russia and the other states with an interest in the Arctic has understandably matched the pace of melting ice. However, there will come a time when it matters.Kovaliv: "The issue here is that you need to look up… Russia is continuing to build its military presence in the Arctic. The way the general Russian economy is developing, it's not a market economy. It is an economy totally based on the extraction of natural resources and the resources are depleting, so the way for Putin and his regime, the next thing is the Arctic. So, while supporting Ukraine, NATO is also securing countries who are also Russian neighbors, whether it is to the west or directly to the north.”Ambassador Kovaliv considers that Ukraine is ‘protecting NATO’s eastern flank’ and was addressing the growing number of Canadians who have become disengaged with the Russo-Ukrainian war. Strictly speaking, Ukraine’s application to join NATO has not been accepted. It is also plain from the circumstances that before Ukraine fights to protect NATO’s eastern flank, it fights to defend itself from one of the most unambiguous acts of naked aggression in Europe, since the start of the Second World War 85 years ago.Since Russian tanks rolled into Ukraine in February 2022, Canada has committed more than $4 billion in military assistance to Ukraine. However, a recent Angus Reid poll suggests many Canadians have "shifted their gaze away from the region," and nearly a quarter are saying Canada has offered “too much support” — a number that has doubled since the early weeks of the war.According to the Reid poll, this sentiment is growing across party lines, but is especially strong with Conservative voters among whom former Fox News host Tucker Carlson — a noted opponent of continued aid to Ukraine — is particularly popular. (Carlson has frequently observed that US President Joe Biden seems more concerned with Ukraine’s eastern border than America’s southern one.)What one makes of the Ukrainian position depends upon what one thinks is Putin’s end-game. From the time of the Tsars and all through the years of the Soviet empire, Russian foreign policy has sought to have a line of militarily weak states between its western border and Europe. The French invasion of 1812, the Crimean War of the 1850s and the German assault of 1941 are Russian proof points. And if the Russians consider Ukrainian NATO membership to be a complete removal of the buffer zone between Mother Russia and a hostile alliance, that would be entirely consistent.On the other hand, how much should Canada trust the Russians? Nobody can be sure that Vladimir Putin’s ambitions are confined by such narrow historical precedent. And even if the Polish border is indeed the limit of his European claims, Canadians can still have no such assurance that the Russians will be so restrained in the Arctic.In that case, Canada will want all the friends it can get. We will be talking again about the merits of collective security.So does Ukraine seem a long way away?Alert, in Canada’s high Arctic, is actually closer to Moscow than it is to Ottawa. Think about it. Meanwhile, it's hard not to cheer on a country that got attacked, bombarded and brutalised by an aggressor. Think about that, too.
