HANNAFORD: Mark Carney’s reality check — or not...

Reality, as British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher used to observe, is not optional. She was a determined politician — they didn't call her 'The Iron Lady' for nothing (and she remains, I believe, a political totem to Premier Danielle Smith.) But even the most resolute leader, armed with a thick skin and an army of communications staff, eventually bumps into ... reality. When they do, lofty rhetoric tends to give way to something more achievable.Is that what's happening with Prime Minister Mark Carney, who arrived in office in April promising to be Justin Trudeau with better math skills? Certainly, he has been announcing a series of what the Ottawa press corps call “policy recalibrations” — a polite way of saying he’s backing away from some of his loftier aspirations.At least, such is the appearance..We'll take it, of course. The April 1 removal of carbon tax applied to gasoline and home heating fuel saved everybody money over the summer.But, before anyone concludes Mark Carney has had a fiscal epiphany, a word of caution: in every case where Mr. Carney has shifted, the reality check is cosmetic. The stuff that actually matters to the future of Canadian energy, economic growth, and Confederation’s internal peace remains exactly as Trudeau left it — and in some cases, even more deeply entrenched.Take the carbon tax itself, supposedly removed on April 1. Yes, it disappeared from the pump. But the truth is, the carbon tax is not dead — it’s just moved upstream. What consumers don’t pay directly at the gas station, they’ll pay indirectly in the production and distribution process, where producers, shippers, and retailers still face costs they’ll pass on in the price of everything from fuel to groceries. Reality, meet wallet..Then there’s the electric vehicle mandate, Trudeau’s law required 20% of all new vehicle sales in 2026 to be electric. Carney, citing US tariffs on Canadian automakers, has delayed that target — but only for a single year. This is not a course change; it’s an intermission. By 2027, unless reality intervenes again, the targets — and the problems they present for auto dealers who to sell gasoline powered cars must sell a certain number of electric cars — will be right back. And heaven only knows where the electricity is to come from to power this mandated expansion of the electric fleet. It's not as if we're building baseload gas generation in Canada the way the Chinese are building coal-fired power stations in Asia.The prime minister has also promised austerity — a “disciplined” budget, a capped public service, and tightened spending.But even here, the fine print is revealing: Carney is still committed to massive capital outlays, generous industrial subsidies, and a host of “strategic investments” that would make J. Maynard Keynes renounce Keynesian-ism. Austerity is what he calls it; the numbers suggest a bonanza for government spending — but divided into operations for which he is prepared to be accountable, and 'investment' which is beyond reproach as he 'builds a stronger Canada.' (And given his antipathy to known money-generators like mines and pipelines, we wait with interest to see what he means to build.).And now, the part where reality is apparently optional: the policy changes Mr. Carney really needs to make — the ones that would send an unmistakable signal to investors, the energy industry, and the West that Ottawa is open for business again.He could repeal Bill C-69, the Trudeau-era “no pipelines bill” that effectively made major resource projects impossible.He could scrap the oil and gas emissions cap, which is in practice a production cap.He could lift the West Coast tanker moratorium that chokes off Alberta oil exports to Asian markets.But on each of these, Carney is immovable. These restrictions, which actively shrink Canada’s economic prospects and deepen the sense of grievance in Western Canada, remain untouched — sacrosanct in the Church of Net Zero. The result is that while he trims a few political sails here and there, the ship still points firmly toward the same destination.What were you expecting?The point is that Friday's 'announcements' aren’t substantive policy shifts; they’re public relations exercises timed for the opening of Parliament, designed to make it look as if the prime minister is listening to the people and adjusting course. He isn’t — at least, not in any meaningful way.In fact, you could argue that he’s doing the political equivalent of swapping the curtains while leaving the house condemned: a little superficial refresh to distract from the fact that the structural problems remain.Reality has forced him to make a few tactical retreats. But the strategic vision — the one that has Canada running headlong into higher costs, slower growth, and diminished competitiveness — is unchanged. And in that sense, the story here isn’t about a leader who’s changed his mind.It’s about one who’s trying to change the subject.

HANNAFORD: Mark Carney’s reality check — or not...

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