HANNAFORD: NDP no longer bound by their deal with the Liberals? What now?

So could there be an election in the offing? The stability of the Trudeau Liberal government rests upon a deal it made with the NDP after the 2021 election. The voters having reduced the Liberals to a 160/338 minority in Parliament, they struck a so-called Supply And Confidence Agreement with the New Democrats (25 seats) giving them a solid operating majority. (185/338)The deal, for which NDP leader Jagmeet Singh received considerable criticism at the time from within his own party, required the NDP to back the government for three years. In return, the Liberals agreed to pass pharmacare legislation by the end of this year. The NDP insisted upon, and received, a written promise.But, it's not going to happen. Parliament rises on December 15th, leaving (at time of writing) a mere 11 days to conclude business. Blacklock’s Reporter notes that while responding to press questions, Government House Leader Karina Gould said the commitment would not be met.Singh has good reason to feel cheated. For all that it’s a terrible bargain, usually when one sells one’s soul to the devil, the devil does at least pay up front.In this case, Singh surrendered his honour and kept this undeserving government afloat through COVID, allegations of Chinese election interference, two wildly unbalanced budgets and much else besides. And for what? He didn’t get the seat in Cabinet upon which he could reasonably have insisted and now he doesn’t get a policy victory to which he could attach his name. It won't just be Singh who feels cheated. It will be every member of his party.Three questions arise.As the Liberal government has had complete control of the parliamentary calendar for more than two years, the excuse that there was no time, that it couldn’t be fitted in, is just not available. If they had meant to, they could have made it a priority. So first question, why didn’t they? Possible answer, the Liberals were duplicitous from the start, never intended to make good on it but intended all along that once they’d bought some time, they would hang Singh out to dry and grab pharmacare as a grabby Liberal promises for what is likely to be a tough enough election for the Liberals, as it is, whenever it comes.That this was not going to happen must have been evident to Mr. Singh some time ago, which leads to the second question, why he has not been more vocal in pursuit of it. One may speculate that he was content to see the Liberals ‘break their promise’ so that his long-term support could no longer be assumed; as he is now no longer bound to support the government, short term support could therefore be sold at a higher price.Third question, do the Trudeau Liberals actually want to be pushed into an election? In theory, they could still fix things up with the NDP and go to October 2025. Given their standing in the polls with Poilievre’s Conservatives in the ascendant, an election now suggests they’re staring loss of power in the face. It makes no sense to precipitate a vote.Except for this. From his overwhelming victory in 2015 to his less spectacular win in 2019, to his reduction to a minority in 2021, to today, Mr. Trudeau has been losing support personally and in the process, ruining the Liberal brand.Bottom line, his party knows that whenever the election comes, they face defeat across the board. They want Mr. Trudeau gone, now.Mr. Trudeau’s solution? Have the election now. He may not win. But if he can compose a convincing ‘national unity’ message by whipping up anti-Alberta sentiment in the Laurentians — and yes, throw in a pharmacare giveaway — he could win a fourth term, and secure his leadership. He has a chance.If he does nothing, he has no chance. The party will throw him out before Easter.If you were Mr. Trudeau, you would do what was right for Mr. Trudeau. So what would you do?

HANNAFORD: NDP no longer bound by their deal with the Liberals? What now?

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