HANNAFORD: 'Palpable Western anger,' if the Liberals win a fourth term

“There will be palpable anger in Western Canada, if the Liberals win a fourth term.” Thus Yaroslav Baran, tonight’s guest on the Hannaford show.

However, Baran — an Ottawa-based political consultant — says even though polls show the Liberals and the Conservatives in a statistical dead heat, the Liberal advantage is vulnerable.

“Right now, the Liberals are enjoying a honeymoon bounce with the appointment of Mark Carney. But, he’s got some serious liabilities. He’s not disclosed his blind-trust holdings and Canadians won’t know what they are until weeks after the election. He says he’s followed the rules and I’m sure he has but right now voters don’t know what his potential conflicts of interest might be, and they won’t before they cast their ballots.”

This election comes down to who Canadians feel can best negotiate with US President Donald J. Trump. Says Baran, “As recently as six weeks ago, the ballot question was all about inflation and the cost of living. It was a post-COVID thing and that played to the advantage of Pierre Poilievre. He identified that issue before anybody else did. Then along came Donald Trump, and people scurried back to the protection of the government, just like during the COVID crisis.”

Adds Baran, "It also worked for the Liberals that a lot of the anger people were feeling was embedded in Justin Trudeau. So when he left, that gave the Liberals a lift.”

And that’s dangerous for national unity. Baran says the reaction in western Canada would be one of desperation. Western alienation would be a real thing again.

But there is hope, he adds.

“We’ve been here before. Governments have natural life cycles. It didn’t help the Liberals in 1984 to switch out Pierre Trudeau and replace him with John Turner. Brian Mulroney won. And in 1993, it didn’t help the Progressive Conservatives to replace Brian Mulroney, who after nine years had become vastly unpopular, with Kim Campbell; they were reduced to two seats. Outsider Michael Ignatieff couldn’t save the Liberals in 2011. It looks like when your time is up, it's up.”

May it be so.

Hannaford airs tonight at seven o’clock.