HANNAFORD: Turns out Trudeau was wrong — Germany just proved Canada always had an LNG 'business case'

So there was a business case for natural gas exports to Germany after all. Of course, we never thought otherwise. But back in August 2022, with Europe freezing and scrambling after Russia invaded Ukraine, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz came to Canada hat in hand looking for reliable LNG supplies. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau looked him in the eye and delivered his classic line, that there was “never a strong business case” for Canadian LNG exports to Europe. Too expensive, too far, Europe was going green anyway, etc. Germany shrugged, turned around, and signed a fat long-term deal with Qatar instead.Fast forward through years of European energy pain, higher emissions from dirtier suppliers, and endless Canadian hand-wringing about projects on the “wrong coast.” Fast forward also past multiple stalled proposals, regulatory delays, and virtue signalling: nothing says moral leadership like lecturing your allies on climate purity while they scramble for alternatives to keep the lights on.Yesterday, however, Energy Minister Tim Hodgson stood up in Vancouver and proudly announced Canada’s first major long-term LNG deal with Germany: up to 1 million tonnes per year from the indigenous-owned Ksi Lisims project on BC’s northwest coast, with deliveries starting in the early 2030s for up to 20 years. The buyer? Securing Energy for Europe, which is to be served by a floating LNG facility on Nisga’a lands, powered by hydroelectricity from BC Hydro..On a point of fact, what Minister Hodgson was announcing was nothing for which to thank the Government of Canada. The tenor of the announcement was that only the government could have made this possible, but this was a deal between companies. In any case, the Final Investment Decision has yet to be made, although it is expected this year.That's the game, though; allowing politicians their moment is sometimes just the price of progress.Still, the timing is telling. Just days earlier, on Monday, Prime Minister Mark Carney met with his so-called green caucus — the faction still clinging to the old Trudeau-era climate purism. It would appear the greens did not win the day.But on Wednesday, this pragmatic LNG export announcement rolled out anyway, which suggests the green caucus is in full retreat and no longer sets the tone for Mr. Carney’s government. Reality and energy security are finally winning out over ideology.And economics. With eastern manufacturing in serious trouble, somebody has to generate some income..Energy commentator Ron Wallace remarks: “Yes, this is a milestone — but it is a theoretical sale based on a project that has yet to be built. The Nisga’a are very shrewd businesspeople and, I am sure, they will steward this project to completion — if they can get assured capital for it ($10 billion).”And the Germans?Wallace again: “Canada is far behind the US and there is no assurance that even if this project gets built that this contract will be honoured by the Germans who, at that new future time, may find cheaper and more reliable sources of supply.”It is funny how the “no business case” suddenly disappears once the political winds shift. Turns out there was always a business case — it just needed fewer lectures and more actual work. Better late than never, I suppose. But let’s just hope our European friends forget who left them hanging when they needed us most.

HANNAFORD: Turns out Trudeau was wrong — Germany just proved Canada always had an LNG 'business case'

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