A spring election? Yaroslav Baran, Nigel Hannaford's guest in tonight's episode of Hannaford, sees it as 'quite possible,' as progressive voters grow disillusioned with Prime Minister Mark Carney.The trigger will be a strong rebound in NDP support..Baran is co-founder of Pendulum Group of political strategists and a former communications director to Prime Minister Stephen Harper.."The left feels betrayed," Baran argues, pointing to Carney's centrist – some say centre-right – repositioning of the Liberals, including deep public service cuts that have left traditional progressives feeling "homeless."With the NDP set to elect a new leader in March 2026, he expects a "normalization of Canadian politics," where the NDP reclaims its role as the authentic voice of the left. This split on the progressive side, he says, would make unlikely a repeat of the last election's NDP implosion, which handed Carney a minority government despite Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives securing an impressive 41.5% of the popular vote..For Poilievre, this dynamic is golden of course. If he maintains his trailblazing leadership – spotlighting cost-of-living crisis, crime, and immigration reform ahead of the curve – Baran believes he will become Canada's next prime minister.Carney meanwhile, struggling with a minority and a weak legislative record (passing just a handful of substantive bills,) desperately seeks a majority. Considering more floor-crossings unlikely, Baran suggests Carney could use the impending USMCA review (starting summer 2026) as a "plausible pretext" for an early vote, perhaps in June or July, claiming he needs a "refreshed mandate" for tough negotiations.The episode also explores the upcoming Conservative convention in Calgary (January 29-31, 2026), where Poilievre faces a leadership review expected to affirm strong party unity. .Hannaford and Baran also critique Carney's recent Davos speech as sobering but elitist – quoting Thucydides and using jargon such as "hyperscalers", "variable geometry" and "plurilateralism" – doesn't speak to everyday Canadians worried about mortgages and groceries. Baran views it as evidence Carney "ain't one of us," further fueling NDP resurgence.As Greenland tensions and global ruptures dominate headlines, this episode of Hannaford offers timely insights into why 2026 could reshape Canadian politics dramatically.Hannaford is uploaded at 7:00 pm tonight.
