The ballot question... what it is that people are thinking about, when they vote...
The conventional wisdom is that it must be who — Mark Carney or Pierre Poilievre — will best be able to protect Canada against US President Donald Trump.
However Trump's foofara will pass, perhaps quite quickly. From the Western Canadian perspective then, perhaps the question is more who do you actually trust to govern Canada afterwards? And in Western Canada, who do you trust, period?
First Mark Carney, who last night announced his intention to seek office in Ottawa's Nepean riding, adjacent to the Nepean-Carleton riding held by Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre. (The Nepean incumbent MP Chandra Arya, who attempted to join the Liberal leadership race but was refused, had his candidacy withdrawn by the party.)
In Western Canada, there is an awkwardness to this election. Even people who are pro-America and like Trump, don't care to be bullied by him. For many therefore, even those who desire a more robust Western sovereignty, there is an understandable — even commendable — instinct to rally round the Canadian flag. And having the advantage of holding power, the Liberals are waving it for all they're worth.
On the other hand, Westerners recognize that Canada's vulnerability to being bullied at all, is largely the consequence of Justin Trudeau's Liberal ministry.
Further, a different worldview dominates Eastern politics. And sadly, guided by the former prime minister's sophomore understanding of politics, history and morality, Liberal governments have for nearly ten years mocked, abused, attacked and dismantled those values Westerners did still share with Eastern Canada.
We have written before about this, starting with Mr. Trudeau's dismissal in 2015, a mere two months after his first election, of the very notion of a Canadian nationality. Canada was, in his view, 'a post-national state,' lacking 'core identity.' There was 'no mainstream.'
After that first kick at our understanding of our country, the unrebuked church-burnings followed, along with the toppling of statues and the very classification of Canada as a systemically racist (non)-country. The flag was lowered to acknowledge so far unproven allegations of mass murders in Indian Residential Schools. This left Westerners angry and resentful — but no longer surprised.
Thus, the only surprise was how quickly the Liberals rediscovered the virtues of jingo-patriotism six weeks ago and invited 'all Canadians' to join them in resisting Trump.
Really? As a Westerner, to what end?
To perpetuate government by the very same people who apart from their intellectual assault upon Western values have also — in the name of some Davos-led, feel-good, climate-change, carbon-reduction goal — done everything in the enormous federal power to blow up the Western energy industry?
Maybe not. For Western Canadians, it is essential to understand that the Liberal leadership has had no change of heart, only a helluva scare and a change of leader.
That is, when Prime Minister Mark Carney suggests he may reverse course on some of Mr. Trudeau's legacy, you can't take him seriously.
His promise to get more pipelines built? Great, but it depends upon support from Quebec and indigenous people. Oh...
His admission that the Liberal government had spent too much money and admitted too many immigrants at once? Good that he admits it, but he was right there beside Mr. Trudeau when... the Liberal government was spending too much money and letting in too many immigrants.
No. An aware Western Canadian cannot depend upon people to get us out of trouble, whose negligence put us in trouble to begin with. (Even if Mr. Trump finds Liberals easier to deal with...)
And in any case, there is no reason to believe this passing unpleasantness with Mr. Trump will rock their fundamental disdain for the West, the values that inform it and the industries upon which it is built.
Second, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre.
No question, it was a bad break for the Conservatives when President Trump declared economic war on Canada. Until then, the ballot question was inflation and finding a way to help young people buy homes. The Conservatives owned those issues. (And they are not going away.) However, the only honorable response to naked American economic aggression was 'elbows up.'
It was also entirely predictable — and a tribute to Poilievre's ability to read the national room over several years — that the Liberals immediately began to steal his election promises and his rhetoric. Thus, an end to consumer and industrial carbon taxes, getting rid of the increase to the capital gains tax, removing GST for first-time homebuyers and Mr. Carney's head-shaking, tut-tutting over overspending, immigration and deficits, see above. Every promise made is a confession of failures past.
Mr. Poilievre has been saying all this for years and when voters are reminded of it, they will remember. They also instinctively understand that when the Liberals pick up a Conservative line, their hearts are not in it.
For dependability, these Liberal promises belong with, "The cheque is in the mail."
Westerners also know that for better of worse, this tariff war will pass, and then what? The Liberal vision of a directed society led by eastern aristocrats?
Somehow, Mr. Poilievre's picture of 'a nice home on a safe street, protected by our brave troops etc.,' seems something better to aspire to and once gained, a satisfaction that lasts.
Above all, they know that unlike Mr. Carney, everything Mr. Poilievre has said or done shows that he actually believes his own words.
Mr. Poilievre is authentic. We cannot say the same of any Liberal who has aspired to lead their party, and now the country.
So really, in Western Canada the ballot question is not who can deal best with the Americans over the next few months, but who you can trust to lead Canada for the next four years... Or put another way, how can any Canadian forget in two months, what the Liberals have been doing to them for the last ten years?
