Here is the single most important fight that Premier Danielle Smith must win. She must stay premier while her caucus is divided over the issue of Alberta independence. In her address to the province, she described three opinion sets among Albertans generally, those who were pro-independence at all costs, those who were committed to Canada no matter what and those who 'like herself' were 'deeply frustrated with the way our province has been mistreated and damaged by successive federal Liberal governments and are not willing to tolerate the status quo any longer.'All three sets of opinion are represented within the UCP caucus. But the matter of Alberta independence is not something upon which polite disagreement is possible. Those who believe it is, will find themselves like a man who goes to sea for no other purpose than to make himself sick, and suffer for it..All of which means if any one of these factions — propelled by whatever vision serves its leaders best — is allowed to seize the upper hand, the caucus will be irreparably divided. Smith, too nuanced for the hardliners and self-evidently a traitor to Canada to those for whom Ottawa could not do enough wrong to merit new constitutional arrangements, would no longer be premier and at this stage, it is anybody's guess what alliance of factions might take over.Many Albertans complain with good reason about how Ottawa's actions have chased away investment and cost Albertans jobs and money. The kind of chaos that would follow the collapse of the Smith government would have the same effect, but would be that much worse if robbed of Smith's measured approach.The path forward that Smith proposes may therefore be seen as visionary, but could also be a personal exercise in staying above the fray..UPDATED: Smith opens door to independence referendum, will chair 'Alberta Next Panel' in escalating pushback against Ottawa .Let's say it is the latter. What she has done is try to push the putative crisis down the road until at least next year. Her government, she says, will not introduce a referendum on independence for Alberta. (But if one is called for by a citizen-initiated referendum, it would happen next year.)Meanwhile she will chair an upcoming 'Alberta Next Panel,' to engage in town halls and discuss Alberta's future within Canada, focusing especially upon protecting the province from "hostile" federal policies..This has potential. Today Premier Danielle Smith said (in essence) that Liberal leader Mark Carney had been told what Alberta wanted — her original nine demands edited down to three and tightened — and that the Government of Canada must be given a chance to live up to the campaign commitments Mr. Carney made on its behalf. Meanwhile, the little platoons of independence-minded Albertans should cool their jets while her government tests the people’s will with a referendum.This goes beyond kicking the can down the road. What Ms. Smith has effectively done today is head off those who would like to establish a redneck Switzerland between the Rocky Mountains and the Saskatchewan border, while giving organization time to the many Albertans who still believe as she puts it, that there is a 'viable path to a strong, free and sovereign Alberta empowered to succeed and prosper within a united Canada. A Canada where the federal government actually honours the constitution, upholds provincial rights.'.Informed Albertans have no reason to trust the new Liberal government. But Mr. Carney, trying to make a deal with President Trump as I write, deserves a chance to show good faith.Ms. Smith's gambit may seem a self-serving attempt to stay above the political fray. But dire choices invite dire consequences. What Smith has accomplished is to design a path forward that reasonable people can walk.So far, so good.
