There could not be a clearer sign that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s time is up than the Liberal loss of their central Toronto fiefdom of Toronto St. Paul’s, where Conservative Don Stewart beat Liberal Leslie Church by about 600 votes, according to preliminary results.This toney, affluent area with its confident air of woke privilege is right next door to Chrystia Freeland’s similarly self-assured University Rosedale riding. Together they embody many of the things that irritate westerners most: Conservatives have always found the air there too righteous to breathe. Not since Brian Mulroney led the old Progressive Conservatives to a massive victory in 1988 have conservatives of any ilk held Toronto St. Paul's.The message from the perfectly coiffed doctors’ wives, with their perfectly coiffed politically correct opinions was not to the unfortunate Liberal candidate Church — once Chrystia Freeland's chief of staff — but to Trudeau himself: ‘Go away and grow up.’Lawyer Steven Trafford Taylor, who ran against Freeland in 2021, spoke for many when he commented the morning after, “This is a spectacular upset and a clear sign that Justin needs to go. (Pierre is the real deal.)”Liberal gadfly Warren Kinsella has never been a friend of Trudeau’s anyway, but his comment this morning was the obvious one: “Sorry Justin, but it’s time to go and hopefully soon.”One suspects Trudeau has heard the message.And there are many people who have argued persuasively that fearing for their seats, his backbenchers will throw him out. In this fantasy, Chrystia Freeland then takes over as prime minister, and they still have a chance in 2025. (It is more likely that Ms. Freeland would become a Kim Campbell to Justin's Mulroney.)However, the prime minister could take refuge in the old argument that byelections don’t count. Voter turnout is low, and voters are just venting. They return to their senses at general elections. In this case, voter turnout was just 43%; at the last election it was 65%. Liberal voters just stayed home you see, but they’ll be back when it matters. They always do. (That’s not to be assumed; this is the third election in Toronto St.Paul’s where the Liberal vote has trended down, from 32,500 in 2019, to 26,400 in 2021 and now to 15,500. Trudeau-fatigue has already set in.)The problem with that analysis is that it doesn’t factor in the enormous sense of self that has defined Trudeau’s entire tenure of office.Voters in the 905 may properly dismiss him as unserious, relentlessly trivial and focused on the wrong things. His behaviour however, and the priorities upon which he has been focused suggest that he has a messianic sense of mission. He believes he is just too important to a greater cause, to be thrown off by a byelection.Results suggest that it was always his mission to take this prosperous, well-ordered Anglo country and following an undeclared agenda, make it ashamed of its past, strip it of its sense of national identity and define moral excellence as living a carbon-neutral life. It would become a new kind of country, post-national and governed according to Chinese standards of public administration.If the collateral damage is massive debt, impoverishment by inflation and growing homelessness, so be it. That’s the price people — other people — have to pay for his dreams.And in his mind, this great commission is not accomplished. “There is work to do,” he declared recently.So it is possible — likely, in my view — that he won’t accept the judgment of Toronto St. Paul’s.I am not a psychologist but his actions suggest that he interprets his life as a saga, and this shall be the point in the story where the hero struggles through adversity to triumph at last in 2025. (Or as Jay Hill pointed out recently, perhaps in 2026.)Meanwhile, he fights a scorched earth campaign intended to further change the country in ways that a later government will find hard to reverse.Rebuked in Liberal heartland he may be. But this much remains in his power to accomplish.
