HANNAFORD: Trump’s Iran strategy could contain China — or trigger the next global conflict

In the smouldering aftermath of US-led strikes on Iran, a stark dilemma confronts President Donald Trump. Will this campaign successfully limit China's aggressive ambitions worldwide, or will it lead quickly to a wider war? In the events of the last few days, unique as they are to today’s time and place, there are disturbing echoes of 1941’s road to Pearl Harbour. If ever there was a time for the art of the deal, it is now.The presidential casus belli is perfectly reasonable; it is in everybody’s interest to neuter Iran’s nuclear potential. Given the character of the Iranian regime — with its terrorism, proxy militias, and ideological fervour to perpetuate its grip, actually more criminal gang than truly a government — means that, because it is especially in Israel’s interests to remove the possibility of a deployable Iranian nuke, it doesn’t make it less important to the rest of the world. These are valid concerns that merit US action.Yet, there is another layer behind that. This is not just about Iran. It is also really about China.To grasp the true stakes, consider how Iran has become a linchpin of Chinese grand strategy. Over the past half-decade, Tehran has morphed from merely a dangerous regional threat into an integral node in Beijing's anti-American strategy. Roughly 80% of Iran's crude oil exports go to Chinese refineries, evading US sanctions and funding a quarter of Iran's state budget, including its military apparatus. This has enabled China to amass a strategic petroleum reserve said to exceed a billion barrels. Experts say this is enough to sustain its economy for about three months, should an attempted Taiwan takeover stall and trigger a US blockade or worse..President Trump is undoubtedly correct in prioritizing the eradication of any lingering Iranian nuclear capability. However, this justification, while valid, masks the operation's core objective: severing China's lifeline through Iran. Much like Venezuela, which once supplied Beijing with discounted oil before US pressures disrupted that flow, Iran represents a critical hedge for China against American sea power. By dismantling this node — targeting Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) naval assets, missile sites in Isfahan and Tabriz, and the Jask facility — the US aims to erode Beijing's strategic depth, potentially deterring adventurism over Taiwan by exposing vulnerabilities in its energy security.Herein lies the peril of escalation, and how the US-Japan economic showdown of 1941 developed, offers a cautionary parallel.Before the Pacific theatre erupted in flames with the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbour, Washington waged a shadow war with Japan through trade embargoes. Japan, an industrial powerhouse starved of raw materials like iron, steel, rubber, and oil, depended heavily on US imports to fuel its military machine.However, like Iran today, Japan was not interested in peace. As we pass judgment on Iran today and the Japan of 1941, let's not forget who the bad guys were. Japan expanded aggressively into China, slaughtered hundreds of thousands of people, and allied itself with Nazi Germany. Today, Iran has a gruesome rap sheet.As a result, the US responded decisively. In October 1940, it banned exports of iron and steel; by July 1941, it froze Japanese assets and halted oil shipments. With European colonies in Asia already severing ties, Japan faced economic strangulation. However, beastly as they were, they were not in error that domestic resources were running out. Tokyo viewed these measures not as deterrence but as an existential threat, which it met by seizing oil-rich territories in Southeast Asia. The result? American entry into the Second World War, starting with the 'Day of Infamy' attack on Pearl Harbour on December 7, 1941..The analogy is eerie. History does not repeat itself, but it does throw up echoes. By choking Iran's oil exports to China, the US risks backing Beijing into a corner, much as it did Japan 86 years ago. Containing China's expansionism is wise — Beijing's Taiwan ambitions are reason good enough — but history underscores the dangers of economic warfare without diplomatic safeguards. A humiliated China, witnessing its Iranian proxy decapitated and its credibility as a global patron eroded (as seen in its tepid response to the strikes), may not retreat.Instead, it could harden alliances with Russia, one of its remaining oil sources. Or it could preemptively strike Taiwan. Weakened foes don't always yield; they adapt and retaliate.President Trump’s ability to see over the horizon is remarkable. (Those who choose to attribute confusion to his public statements miss their point; they are for the confusion of America’s enemies, not the instruction of his fellow Americans.) Even he, however, does not have that perfect foresight which would allow him to peer into the coming chaos. Markets may bet on a short conflict, but they often err.The day will come when Iran's ruins offer nothing worth further bloodshed, yet China will still require an honourable off-ramp to avert prolonged — and possibly wider — war. A negotiated détente — perhaps trading normalized energy flows for Beijing's restraint on Taiwan — could transform this gamble into a strategic win. Fail that, and the ghosts of 1941 may haunt us again, turning containment into war.If ever Trump needs to channel his dealmaker instincts, it will be in about three weeks — and certainly no later than China’s strategic oil reserves are down to nothing…

HANNAFORD: Trump’s Iran strategy could contain China — or trigger the next global conflict

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