HANNAFORD: What the oilpatch wants is certainty... it still doesn't have it

Newly inaugurated President Trump’s tariffs may still be on their way, but not today. Canada has time to think.This is both good and bad. The Western energy industry needs certainty and right now, it doesn’t have it. But on balance, it is definitely good. And it is gives us time for a badly needed election.It is good, for all the obvious reasons. Whether you’re buying or selling, tariffs hurt. In the case of Western oil and natural gas, it is of course the US importer that would pay, not the Canadian exporter. If the US importer does not have alternatives, then they probably just pay the tariff and pass on the cost to consumers in the US. And this is almost certainly why his earlier threats notwithstanding, Trump decided that this was not the day to begin lowering prices for Americans by making gasoline more expensive.So far, so good.On the other hand, at a time when Premier Danielle Smith aspires to double oil production in Alberta, the uncertainty remains. And investors hate uncertainty. Nothing much can happen until energy investors regain their confidence.Smith rightly applauded Trump’s forbearance, saying that ‘declining to impose U.S. tariffs on Canadian energy will preserve the viability of dozens of U.S. refineries and facilities that upgrade Alberta crude and the tens of thousands of Americans employed by them.’Quite so. And it remains to be seen how much good the Premier did with her quiet schmoozing of the Yanks. Much more, I suspect than anything accomplished by some of her colleagues in the Council of Confederation, who were bloviating about how they were going to kick sand in Trump's face.Still, the threat of US tariffs remains and with it the possibility that in its dying days, the Liberal government led by Justin Trudeau still considers that an export tax on Alberta energy might be a suitable response.Realistically, it would not be at the top of the list or even one high on it. Everybody in Ottawa understands that it wouldn’t take long for American importers to take avoiding action.So even if an export tax looks to Prime Minister Trudeau like a nuclear option, he must surely have been advised that if used, it would prove to have an extended half-life.That is, it cannot have escaped notice in Ottawa that in his inauguration speech, President Trump declared a national energy emergency, his solution to which is to “drill, baby, drill.” The United States has other options then, and if Trump is to be taken seriously — which he is — he will pursue them.Mr. Trudeau may not get the message even so. He has revealed himself on many occasions to have a wide policy blind spot and confronted with a choice between two evils, with unerring accuracy selects the greater. Who knows what he might do?For that matter, who knows what Mark Carney, or Ms. Freeland might do, stuck as they are in policies intended to reduce carbon emissions by stifling Canada’s energy industry?In this regard, we have some confidence that Mr. Poilievre understands the issues and has a more realistic view of Canada's energy policy than the Trudeau Liberals. Yet, whether it falls to Mr. Trudeau — as it might if his prorogation is found to be illegal and Parliament is recalled before the Liberals have chosen his replacement — or to a Liberal successor or to Poilievre himself to deal with Trump’s administration, investor uncertainty remains.Let's not forget — the Premier certainly hasn't — that energy is this country's biggest and most valuable industry.Let's get this election done and see where we stand.

HANNAFORD: What the oilpatch wants is certainty... it still doesn't have it

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