Saskatchewan’s government is prudent but timid. It holds the line on taxes and resists runaway spending, but fails to enact game-changing reforms in healthcare and education that would relieve cost pressures.The provincial budget, announced on March 18, left fiscal conservatives frowning. Spending will rise 1.7% to $21.4 billion, up $361 million from last year, but expenses will grow by 5.7% to $22.2 billion, up $1.2 billion. That leaves a deficit of $819.4 million.The budget revealed a dismal estimate of last year’s finances. The 2025-26 budget anticipated a $12.2 million surplus, but it will wind up being a $1.2 billion deficit. The gap is blamed on lower revenues, high wildfire expenditures, and higher debt servicing costs.The Scott Moe era has witnessed a poor record on fiscal balance. He ran deficits after becoming premier in 2018 before enjoying surpluses in 2022-23 and 2023-24. He pledged in the 2024 election to return to surplus by 2027-28, but the new budget delays that three years.In the last year, foreign tariffs have hit Saskatchewan’s resource-based economy hard. Last year, China placed tariffs of up to 100% on canola oil and meal imports and peas, as well as 25% on pork. India imposed tariffs, including 30% on yellow peas and 10% on lentils.The US has also imposed tariffs, including 25% to 35% on some non-CUSMA (Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement) imports, except for oil and potash, which face a 10% tariff. It has also imposed tariffs of up to 50% on steel and aluminum imports and 35% on softwood lumber..But these external pressures do not explain the province’s underlying problem: its failure to change how its largest spending areas operate.It’s true that taxes aren’t rising, services aren’t being cut, and the provincial workforce will shrink through attrition for the next three years. But the deficit remains significant.Based on the latest available population estimates, Saskatchewan’s per capita deficit this fiscal year will be $647, better than most provinces. Alberta will overspend $1,746 per capita, and BC will overspend $2,340.So, while Saskatchewan’s budget is less objectionable than most other places, it is still not great. Debt servicing costs are rising 15.2% in this budget to $1.2 billion, representing 5.5% of total expenses.Nothing Scott Moe would be required to do to fix the deficit would be as drastic as the measures taken by NDP Premier Roy Romanow in the 1990s. The final budget of the outgoing government in 1991 spent $11,680 per person. By 1996, the Romanow government spent $7,930. That’s $3,750 less and an annual average decrease of 6.9%. Moe is spending $17,565 per person, and a mere $700 less per person would immediately restore fiscal balance..Saskatchewan could and should do more than mere tinkering and consider new initiatives in its big-ticket spending items of healthcare ($8.4 billion) and education ($4.5 billion). In 2010-2014, the Saskatchewan Surgical Initiative, a provincial program launched in 2010 to reduce surgical wait times, reduced by 75% the number of patients waiting for surgery for more than three months. The Fraser Institute estimates it did so with a 26% cost savings.A more recent example comes from Alberta, which is changing its hospital funding model from a “global budget” (lump-sum) approach to an activity-based or “patient-focused” model, which pays hospitals per treatment rather than a fixed budget to fund specific initiatives. As it is phased in, the new model ensures that funding follows the patient, meaning hospitals and contracted surgical facilities are paid based on the type and volume of procedures performed. The legacy model, which Saskatchewan isn’t changing yet, can result in hospitals receiving government funding without a direct correlation to services actually delivered.Finally, the Saskatchewan government could facilitate charter schools, a model Alberta has exemplified well. These schools, publicly funded but independently operated, are run under independent boards with qualified staff who aren’t full-time teachers’ union members. This brings more flexibility in hiring staff and results in somewhat lower compensation.Alberta also removed caps on charter schools, and enrolment has grown 63% since 2016. Testing shows better results for students. That’s a win-win for both students and taxpayers.The Moe government knows what to do. The question is whether it is willing to offend unions and regional bureaucracies to do it.Lee Harding is a research fellow for the Frontier Centre for Public Policy.
